Another week, another issue: Virgin Galactic mulls test flight restart as VSS Unity fixed – but VMS Eve might be borked
- Reference: 1620824523
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2021/05/12/virgin_galactic_issues/
- Source link:
The news came during a Q1 [1]investor call following the announcement of a $130m loss, down from the $377m loss for the same time last year.
Mike Moses, Virgin president for Space Missions and Safety, told participants that following the [2]December 2020 abort , in which the rocket motor lost connection and VSS Unity was forced to glide back to a safe landing before getting a chance to trouble space, the team had been working on dealing with EMI introduced by a new flight control computer.
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While the original upgrades sailed through testing on the ground and during glide flights, the rocket motor took exception and a failsafe abort was triggered during the December flight. "The system," explained Moses, "is designed to translate pilot inputs into commands to move an electric motor and it was the unintended feedback of those motor commands that generated EMI."
Virgin Galactic has since added hardware filters to suppress the EMI generated and improved shielding on the wire harness. "We've reduced the EMI intensity to a level that is over 90 per cent lower than it was before," boasted Moses.
So ready to fly? Perhaps even get a jump on Jeff Bezos in the sending-the-wealthy-to-space stakes?
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Maybe not. The carrier aircraft responsible for lugging Branson's space jalopies to altitude and dropping them, VMS Eve, was due to head into a maintenance cycle later this year. However, at the end of last week a "wear-and-tear issue" emerged on the aircraft following a post-flight inspection that merited further evaluation. "This may impact our flight test schedule," admitted Moses. But such is the nature of flight testing.
The test schedule currently consists of four flights. The first will send up two pilots. The second will add a cabin-full of mission specialists. The third will include Richard Branson. The fourth will be a research flight in partnership with the Italian Air Force.
Unlike VSS Unity, the schedule remains up in the air and CEO Michael Colglazier promised investors "an update on schedule implications to our next flight."
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Investors were initially unimpressed as Virgin Galactic's stock price took a pummelling, dropping sharply to below $15 before recovering to just over $18. New CFO Doug Ahrens pointed to the 600 "future private astronauts" on the company's books and added: "We plan to reopen sales for a private astronaut market around the time of the flight with Richard Branson," but only for "a limited period of time."
While he did not give pricing for private astronauts, he did say that the company expected the Italian Air Force flight "to generate $2m of revenue, or the equivalent of $500,000 per seat."
Rival Blue Origin recently [8]announced plans to send its first crew into space on 20 July, with one seat up for auction.
Colglazier dodged a question in the call about who would be more expensive by telling analysts that he reckoned that seat in Bezos' capsule "will be a pretty high price" before enthusing that he expected demand to be so great that the question wouldn't be about cost but "how can I get a seat?" ®
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[1] https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2021/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-First-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results/default.aspx
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2020/12/14/space_in_brief/
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YJv7mZT998QJm72aAPkVCQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YJv7mZT998QJm72aAPkVCQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YJv7mZT998QJm72aAPkVCQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
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[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YJv7mZT998QJm72aAPkVCQAAAA0&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[8] https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2021/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-First-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results/default.aspx
[9] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Sending the wealthy to space
Yes, but do we have to bring them back?
Re: Sending the wealthy to space
They can (space)walk back.
Not unexpected
After all, Richard Branson has a past history of dealing with EMI!
"he expected demand to be so great"
Sorry Richard, there may be quite a few millionnaires on this planet, but even so, I'd wager there are also quite a few that prefer to continue benefitting from their status and not risk getting presented before the Pearly Gates ahead of time.
Re: "he expected demand to be so great"
This time last year, apparently around 8,000 people had put down deposits for a VG flight, and in recent articles, a figure of 600 has been quoted of people who've actually bought tickets so far.
The new VSS Imagine ship (the first SpaceShip III class ship), seats 6 passengers, VG plans to build a 2nd one of these (no dates yet as far as I know).
They have stated they plan do about 400 flights per year (eventually), although I assume they at least need the 2nd ship for this, and will likely start much slower.
So you're probably looking at at least a year or two to clear those initial 600 ticket holders, then an additional 3+ years for the ~8000 deposit holders, assuming they manage to ramp up to the proposed 400 flights of course. (and that all 8,000 actually go through with it of course).
And that's with static numbers, presumably ticket sales will kick off again once flights are going. I also suspect many people who are interested in a flight, likely want to wait a while for the tech to prove itself, so won't have put down a deposit yet.
Assuming they achieve and stick to 400 flights a year, and the 6 seat configuration, that's 2,400 people each year buying a ticket to sustain those flight numbers. The US alone produces over 600k new millionaires per year, so there's no shortage of people who are going to be able to afford it.
unintended feedback... generated EMI.
So they fitted a diode, and wrapped it in tinfoil?
Can someone remind me when this thing was originally planned to fly?
Rocket science is pretty much all done, rocket engineering, not so much.
Re: originally planned to fly
Test flights (of SpaceShipOne) were planned and carried out earlier (2003) but the earliest date I can find that involves passengers going to over 80km altitude in a SpaceShipTwo is when Branson hoped (no hint of a promise) he would fly before the end of 2009.
Really?
As in, Holy friggin hell! REALLY?? They didn't expect inductive feedback from actuators? Who are the clowns designing this? That's mechatronics 101. EVERY actuator has some form of feedback. If your control system can't handle it, it'll shit the bed (as demonstrated). This certainly doesn't inspire confidence in the design and testing process as VG. Have they even heard of DFMEA? CDRs? 4-eyes principles?
If only
we (including myself) had not bought Tubular Bells". We would not have had so much to laugh at. Is this thing ever going to do anything other than not work properly?
90% lower
That's one order of magnitude or, if I recall correctly, around 10 dB. In EMC terms that kind of margin is more of a just-squeak-through than anything to boast about. Hope they keep an eye on it, as anything as simple as the cable harness sagging under high gee could potentially bring the problem back.
EMI?
I'm surprised that a major failure was deemed to be caused by an EMI failure. After such a long time in development, the electronics should be bulletproof. At this time it is the software that should be under close scrutiny.
The fact that this fault happened at all would put me off from booking a place as I would question what other areas have been overlooked and did they cut corners?
Sending the wealthy to space
Hmmm, sounds like a plan.