Sadly, the catastrophic impact with Apophis asteroid isn't going to happen in 2068
- Reference: 1616929509
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2021/03/28/apophis_asteroid_safe/
- Source link:
“A 2068 impact is not in the realm of possibility anymore, and our calculations don’t show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years,” Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer working at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at its Jet Propulsion Laboratory, [1]confirmed this week.
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Apophis has sparked many scaremongering headlines since it was discovered in 2004, and given the Greek name for Apep, an Egyptian god associated with darkness and death. The rock was immediately added to databases listing the riskiest asteroids by NASA and the European Space Agency.
At first, astronomers tracking the object said there was a small risk it would smash into Earth in 2029. That was later ruled out, though they said it could have a second chance when it comes near again in 2036. The risk was, again, recalculated and found to be off as well, though the scientists said the space rock could come back to threaten us in 2068.
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'Doomsday' asteroid Apophis more massive than first thought [4]READ MORE
Those fears, however, have been put to rest after boffins were able to get a closer look at Apophis's orbit as it passed by at a safe distance on March 5. Now they reckon it won’t crash into Earth in 2068 nor any time over the next century. Experts are so sure about this that the asteroid has been [5]removed from official risk lists by NASA and the ESA.
“With the support of recent optical observations and additional radar observations, the uncertainty in Apophis’ orbit has collapsed from hundreds of kilometers to just a handful of kilometers when projected to 2029. This greatly improved knowledge of its position in 2029 provides more certainty of its future motion, so we can now remove Apophis from the risk list,” Farnocchia added.
The persistent asteroid is still scheduled to fly by Earth at a distance of less than 32,000km (20,000 miles) – placing it even closer than some satellites in geosynchronous orbits – on April 13, 2029, though our planet’s gravity will deflect its path, nudging it further away into space. Here’s a quick video showing its future trajectory.
[6]Youtube Video
For this development, you can thank the astronomers who monitored the object using a 70-metre (230-foot) radio antenna at the Deep Space Network’s Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex in the US, and were able to track the rock's motion to an accuracy of about 150 meters.
The radar images have a resolution of about 38.75 metres (127 feet) per pixel – not bad for trying to eyeball a moving object 17 million kilometres away. “If we had binoculars as powerful as this radar, we would be able to sit in Los Angeles and read a dinner menu at a restaurant in New York,” said Marina Brozovic, a scientist working at JPL, who led the radar observations.
Instead of feeling a tiny sense of dread, we can now all look forward to Apophis paying us a harmless visit in eight years when it will be visible to the naked eye. Scientists will use this opportunity to study the asteroid at an even closer detail than currently possible to figure out how fast it's spinning and if that could cause “asteroid quakes” on its surface.
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“When I started working with asteroids after college, Apophis was the poster child for hazardous asteroids,” said Farnocchia. “There’s a certain sense of satisfaction to see it removed from the risk list, and we’re looking forward to the science we might uncover during its close approach in 2029.” ®
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[1] https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-analysis-earth-is-safe-from-asteroid-apophis-for-100-plus-years
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YGCoHvyyVi7yUlwi7H8iBgAAAEs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YGCoHvyyVi7yUlwi7H8iBgAAAEs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2013/01/09/apophis_size_mistake/
[5] https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Planetary_Defence/Apophis_impact_ruled_out_for_the_first_time
[6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=15&v=hjJIyZKbHqc&feature=emb_title
[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YGCoHvyyVi7yUlwi7H8iBgAAAEs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[8] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Wish upon a star
A probe orbiting a body changes its orbit. It's a small effect, certainly. For small asteroids the change might notable after enough time has passed. I'm trying to say that it should be calculated precisely how the probe will change the location of Apophis in centuries so that the orbiting probe doesn't make a collision with Earth more likely...
Okay, I certainly don't know any specifics but an orbiting probe is one of the means a hazardous small body could be directed not to hit Earth, given we have enough time to do that. Just be sure that you don't make the situation worse.
Re: Wish upon a star
I think the challenge is not the distance, but the speed. A probe mush match the speed of the asteroid, which at that point may be travelling faster than our current rockets are able to accelerate the probe. The asteroid missions performed so far (like Dawn, Osiris-Rex and Hayabusa) have first travelled in space for years before the encounter, picking up speed with ion engines or by gravity assists.
It might be doable, but here we really need an answer from an actual rocket scientist.
Re: Wish upon a star
A small array of high speed cameras could capture it as it flies by, whatever its speed is.
To take a sample, you'll need to start moving soon to be able to match speed. Apparently, the Chinese plan to shadow it and maybe sample it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
Dear/Darn scientists
Why do those darn scientists have to cross my profitable plan of selling asteroid shelters? Truth and realism is not a good way to make money.
Please, dear scientists, let us save the fear and doubt to make the extra buck. Please tell the general public that there still is a real change that you are wrong and the world will end by extraterrestrial impact. I'm even willing to share a very small percentage of the asteroid shelter winnings so we'll all have a comfortable future.
It is basically about the same size as a certain boat blocking a certain canal.
Perhaps if we got lucky it would have dislodged it many years in the future. No chance of that happening now!
placing it even closer than some satellites in geosynchronous orbits
Perhaps it can sweep some space junk away with it.
Those fears have been put to rest
And that's when that new, yet unknown asteroid appears...
See NY from LA?
BUSTED!!1! He let slip that Earth IS flat after all!
And in other news, governments across the world are rumered to be colaberating on some form of deep subterranean project, details are sketchy. Select top officials and the top 0.00001% richest are rumered to be in the know.
Perfect timing...
...so they had to release this news the day after I finished reading Lucifer's Hammer Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle)...wasn't I paranoid enough?
Wish upon a star
Any chance that we could send a probe to intercept it and take some samples, if not on the 2029 approach on one of the later ones? If it is coming so close it should be possible.