Semi-autonomous cars sales move up a gear with 3.5 million units leaving forecourts
(2021/03/26)
- Reference: 1616786825
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2021/03/26/semiautonomous_cars_19_per_cent/
- Source link:
Autonomous driving sales are accelerating, claims analyst house Canalys, citing global shipments of 3.5 million vehicles with Level 2 self-driving capability during calendar Q4 2020.
Whether a car is self-driving or not isn't a binary, but rather judged across a sliding scale. There are multiple "levels." The lowest, Level 0, refers to automated systems that may occasionally take control of the car, such as automatic parking. The highest, Level 5, refers to cars where manual controls are entirely optional.
[1]
The most prevalent standard is Level 2. Here, the car is able to control its momentum and direction, handling things like acceleration and assisted steering. However, the driver must be ready to take control of the vehicle at any time. Think of it as a super-cruise-control.
The most hyped-up example of this tech is [2]Tesla's Autopilot system , although Canalys noted much of the last quarter's growth had come from brands like Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Ford, which have started offering similar self-driving features as an optional extra on pricier models.
[3]
Honda sends first consumer Level 3 autonomous car into showrooms, but only to 100 lucky Japanese leasers [4]READ MORE
Unsurprisingly, the US led the pack in end-user sales, accounting for 30 per cent (or 1.2 million units) of all new car sales. Japan, Europe, and China followed, with Level 2 semi-autonomous cars accounting for 20, 19, and 12 per cent of all sales.
Once the preserve of deep-pocketed early adopters, autonomous driving features are increasingly commonplace, with more cars retailing under $40,000. By contrast, in [5]the second quarter of 2019 , Level 2 features were present on 8 per cent of all new cars sold in Europe.
Carmakers have committed to increasing levels of automation in the coming years, with Level 3 functionality (which doesn't require the driver to remain in control, but rather ready to take over should the need arise) expected to trickle out from this year. Some of the first examples have already left the forecourt, with Honda starting limited lease sales of the Honda Legend EX customers in Japan.
BMW is also expected to release a Level 3 car in the coming year, dubbed the iNext EV.
Still, despite this progress, there remain significant barriers to widespread adoption, particularly on the legal front. Legislation simply has not kept up with technical progress, and features like Autopilot are [6]technically illegal in the UK.
The UK government is expected to publish the results of its consultation on self-driving motors in early 2021. Earlier this year, Britain's Department for Transport said it [7]expected the UK autonomous car market to be worth $41.7bn by 2035 .
Brit transport pundit Christian Wolmar on why the driverless car is on a 'road to nowhere' [8]READ MORE
Additional challenges have come in the form of semiconductor shortages, with [9]carmakers afflicted with a shortage of parts , due in part by inventory and production management issues, as well as disruption to manufacturing facilities caused by extreme weather.
Although the self-driving market has developed in recent years, there remains a thick layer of scepticism about whether carmakers will be able to ditch the steering wheel for good, with Brit transport expert Christian Wolmar previously describing fully autonomous driving as an over-hyped pipe dream sold to the masses by publicity-thirsty conglomerates.
“This is a fantasy that has not been thought through, and is being promoted by technology and auto manufacturers because tech companies have vast amounts of footloose capital they don’t know what to do with, and auto manufacturers are terrified they’re not on board with the new big thing,” he [10]told us in 2018 .
[11]
"Billions are being spent developing technology that nobody has asked for, that will not be practical, and that will have many damaging effects.” ®
Get our [12]Tech Resources
[1] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YF5noNA2YUu8gMQq9b92DwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2018/12/03/tesla_autopilot_driver/
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YF5noNA2YUu8gMQq9b92DwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2021/03/05/honda_offers_the_first_consumeravailable/
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2019/09/09/self_driving_cars_up_in_europe_canalys/
[6] https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/safe-use-of-automated-lane-keeping-system-on-gb-motorways-call-for-evidence
[7] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-on-the-cusp-of-a-transport-revolution-as-self-driving-vehicles-set-to-be-worth-nearly-42-billion-by-2035
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2018/01/11/christian_wolmar_interview_self_driving_cars/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2021/02/10/honda_nissan_report_semiconductor_shortages/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2018/01/11/christian_wolmar_interview_self_driving_cars/
[11] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YF5noNA2YUu8gMQq9b92DwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[12] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Whether a car is self-driving or not isn't a binary, but rather judged across a sliding scale. There are multiple "levels." The lowest, Level 0, refers to automated systems that may occasionally take control of the car, such as automatic parking. The highest, Level 5, refers to cars where manual controls are entirely optional.
[1]
The most prevalent standard is Level 2. Here, the car is able to control its momentum and direction, handling things like acceleration and assisted steering. However, the driver must be ready to take control of the vehicle at any time. Think of it as a super-cruise-control.
The most hyped-up example of this tech is [2]Tesla's Autopilot system , although Canalys noted much of the last quarter's growth had come from brands like Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Ford, which have started offering similar self-driving features as an optional extra on pricier models.
[3]
Honda sends first consumer Level 3 autonomous car into showrooms, but only to 100 lucky Japanese leasers [4]READ MORE
Unsurprisingly, the US led the pack in end-user sales, accounting for 30 per cent (or 1.2 million units) of all new car sales. Japan, Europe, and China followed, with Level 2 semi-autonomous cars accounting for 20, 19, and 12 per cent of all sales.
Once the preserve of deep-pocketed early adopters, autonomous driving features are increasingly commonplace, with more cars retailing under $40,000. By contrast, in [5]the second quarter of 2019 , Level 2 features were present on 8 per cent of all new cars sold in Europe.
Carmakers have committed to increasing levels of automation in the coming years, with Level 3 functionality (which doesn't require the driver to remain in control, but rather ready to take over should the need arise) expected to trickle out from this year. Some of the first examples have already left the forecourt, with Honda starting limited lease sales of the Honda Legend EX customers in Japan.
BMW is also expected to release a Level 3 car in the coming year, dubbed the iNext EV.
Still, despite this progress, there remain significant barriers to widespread adoption, particularly on the legal front. Legislation simply has not kept up with technical progress, and features like Autopilot are [6]technically illegal in the UK.
The UK government is expected to publish the results of its consultation on self-driving motors in early 2021. Earlier this year, Britain's Department for Transport said it [7]expected the UK autonomous car market to be worth $41.7bn by 2035 .
Brit transport pundit Christian Wolmar on why the driverless car is on a 'road to nowhere' [8]READ MORE
Additional challenges have come in the form of semiconductor shortages, with [9]carmakers afflicted with a shortage of parts , due in part by inventory and production management issues, as well as disruption to manufacturing facilities caused by extreme weather.
Although the self-driving market has developed in recent years, there remains a thick layer of scepticism about whether carmakers will be able to ditch the steering wheel for good, with Brit transport expert Christian Wolmar previously describing fully autonomous driving as an over-hyped pipe dream sold to the masses by publicity-thirsty conglomerates.
“This is a fantasy that has not been thought through, and is being promoted by technology and auto manufacturers because tech companies have vast amounts of footloose capital they don’t know what to do with, and auto manufacturers are terrified they’re not on board with the new big thing,” he [10]told us in 2018 .
[11]
"Billions are being spent developing technology that nobody has asked for, that will not be practical, and that will have many damaging effects.” ®
Get our [12]Tech Resources
[1] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YF5noNA2YUu8gMQq9b92DwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2018/12/03/tesla_autopilot_driver/
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YF5noNA2YUu8gMQq9b92DwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2021/03/05/honda_offers_the_first_consumeravailable/
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2019/09/09/self_driving_cars_up_in_europe_canalys/
[6] https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/safe-use-of-automated-lane-keeping-system-on-gb-motorways-call-for-evidence
[7] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-on-the-cusp-of-a-transport-revolution-as-self-driving-vehicles-set-to-be-worth-nearly-42-billion-by-2035
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2018/01/11/christian_wolmar_interview_self_driving_cars/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2021/02/10/honda_nissan_report_semiconductor_shortages/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2018/01/11/christian_wolmar_interview_self_driving_cars/
[11] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YF5noNA2YUu8gMQq9b92DwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[12] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Put me down for two dozen or so...
Lucy in the Sky (with Diamonds)
Personally, I drive pre-1990 cars, made before Air Bags, GPS and computers. You know, cars. I assume any computer car more than five years old no longer gets software or map updates and the computers in them have this forever beige-box feel to them, lost in time, lost in space. Like cars with built-in Apple docks, for devices that no longer exist.
Having said that, I am looking forward to the fun I will have when fully autonomous self driving cars come out. I will buy dozens of them, and have them drive about all day, doing things I consider funny, like creating traffic jams around ex girlfirends’ cars. Going to work, and make eight of them drive around me in a protective bubble, then make them drive around the block all day to save on parking. Get one, just to take doggie for a walk.
In the present day, sadly we are restricted to be able to only drive a single car at a time, but thanks to the marvels of innovation, we can soon drive hundreds of cars all at the same time. This is progress for a better, happier, more entertaining world.
Will you visit me please, if I open my door... in cars?
Andy Non
You'll feel like a new man.
(Numan)
"Billions are being spent developing technology that nobody has asked for, that will not be practical, and that will have many damaging effects.”
The same could have been said, at the time, for many technologies or infrastructure projects we now take for granted. The billions spent by technology and auto companies is their own business. If drivers really do not want these aids, they wouldn't be spending on them as optional extras, but clearly there is a strong demand for them. And if people opt to buy cars with less technology, they are free to not buy the extras, or buy a brand / model that doesn't offer them.
With regard to practicality, self-driving cars are infinitely more practical than driveb cars, if they allow the 'driver' to focus on something else rather than driving. Hundreds of millions of person-ours a day can be freed up, to the benefit of both productivity and personal life. The fact that level 2 self-driving doesn't allow the driver to focus on something else is true, but, if progress continues, temporary.
With regards to damaging effects, I can only imagine he is referring to potential accidents. But to improve here, autonomous vehocles don't need to be better than the best driver at their most attentive, they just need to be better than the average driver at their average level of attentiveness. Considering the awful driving I've witnessed driving in half a dozen different countries, and also considering how many people drive tired, drunk, while calling, or when trying to deal with screaming kids, jumping pets or their favourite scalding caffeinated beverage.... well, the bar to clear isn't really that high.