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  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Windows' cloudy future: That Chrome OS advantage is Google's to lose

(2021/02/08)


Column Microsoft has changed a lot since [1]Steve Ballmer left . It's hard to imagine [2]Satya Nadella fostering an environment where workers felt they had to hide their iPhones for fear of enraging the boss. Microsoft is [3]contributing so much to open source now it almost feels unfair to mention that Ballmer called [4]open source "cancer" . Almost.

In some ways, though, the company is the same old Microsoft, in ways that do it no favours. In particular, it really wants the world using Windows to run Office. It also knows it has to do the cloud thing to stay competitive, and it loves monthly [5]subscriptions .

[6]

Legacy support has always been both Microsoft's superpower and Kryptonite, and it continues to define its fate – a legacy of legacies. Thus we get the odd hybrid of Office 365, and the push to Microsoft 365, and now [7]Windows 10 Cloud Config to kinda sorta pretend it's all cloud and Windows some sort of thin centrally managed client.

Oh, if only. Bolting on a bunch of config options to make Windows 10 a cloud OS is like taking the gearbox out of a 1980s land-whale of a Cadillac and replacing it with a generator running off the V8 and an electric motor on the driveshaft. No way to get a Tesla.

[8]

And when you can buy a Chromebook outright for roughly the cost of a year's subscription to Microsoft 365? Tricky. But Microsoft is still too Microsoft to do a proper Chromebook competitor.

Simplicity, low cost, and true native cloud DNA is doing very well for Chromebook and Chrome OS. It will continue to do well. While Microsoft is addicted to selling software and Apple to selling hardware, Google is all about data, and that's the best match to what users need.

Linux on the desktop... but it needs support

With sales quadrupling and a comfortable [9]double-digit market share , Chromebooks have done the impossible and made Linux on the desktop not just a fact, but a fact built on ease of use for ordinary users. The magic that you don't have to configure or maintain a Chromebook, and your data leaps like a well-trained gazelle into any new Chromebook you buy, is powerful indeed.

This advantage is Google's to lose, and if Microsoft's Microsoftness is dangerous for the Seattleites, Google's Googleocity looms darkly over Mountain View.

Google wants to marry Android and Chrome OS, but while the bodged-in Android system in Chrome OS works much better than it should, it's at a cost in usability, stability, and the unmistakable fact that phone apps are clunky as fudge on a laptop. Likewise, it's very satisfying for the geeky to have the Linux system exposed, but you want to keep that stuff well away from Grandma. It's not what Chromebooks are for.

More seriously, Google changes its mind. The Chrome browser and the various productivity apps feel quite different on Chromebook and Android, and basic services like instant messaging keep chopping and changing in ways that really hurt the non-technical user. Google has a great data appliance for the common man in Chromebook, but it needs a strategy that commits much harder to that approach. And that needs to revolve around support.

Same old complexity beneath Windows 10 Cloud Config means it's unlikely to compete with the likes of Chrome OS [10]READ MORE

There are things the company can do to reduce the need of Chromebook users for support. Let's start with a commitment to a core stable user experience of Google's own services, analogous to the PC makers who guarantee a continuity of platform configurations.

Chromebook users do not value new features over stability. They want to know that they can learn how to use Google Docs to create, open, share, and manage text documents, and that there are stable reference sources that are easy to find and follow and won't go out of date in six months, or six years.

There are basic computing tasks that haven't changed much in 30 years; by all means have the posh and shiny, but leave the accelerator, lights, and steering wheel alone.

But what Google can do to cement Chromebook as a major component of everyday computing is to support support. Google is very bad at support. If something goes wrong with your Google service as an ordinary user, there's no phone number to call, no email with a guaranteed response time. Even finding the right bit of the web with up-to-date community self-support is hard. Google isn't uniquely bad at this, but it's bad nonetheless. It gets away with it because its services in general work well, and Chromebook is particularly good at fulfilling its promise of looking after itself.

Yet if you want to help support someone's Chromebook, some very useful components are either missing or quietly broken. Remote viewing and control is iffy and unreliable, especially cross-platform. There isn't one singular Facetime-like service, there's the mess of Chat/Talk/Hangouts/Duo which never seems to settle down. And, like all third-party support, there's no chain of trust. You can download a thousand pointless toys from Google Play with some degree of hope that they won't be actively attacking you. Nothing like that exists when you need support, especially if you're a naive user.

Fixing this would reduce the level of pain in the world by an appreciable amount. A framework for support services – a standard toolset for communication and remote diagnosis with that guarantee of continuity and stability, a central directory of third-party support providers that looks a bit like the Play Store for problem solving, and a set of solid training and certification resources. It's not much to ask for, and because Chromebook is well defined and stable it'll be an attractive place for third parties to set up shop. It has the potential to become a self-supporting ecosystem with benefits for everyone.

[11]

Not only is this possible, it's something the competition is unlikely to do – their ecosystems are already far too complex, history-laden, and dominated by conflicting demands. It's a chance that nobody else has, the support at scale that cloud computing at scale needs but cannot evolve. There is nothing as effective as dominating an environment your competition cannot evolve to exploit, and in Microsoft's legacy of legacies, Google has a whole world to win. ®

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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2013/11/16/blubbering_ballmer_admits_he_was_the_problem_at_microsoft/

[2] https://www.theregister.com/2014/02/04/satya_nadella_new_microsoft_ceo/

[3] https://www.theregister.com/2015/09/18/microsoft_has_developed_its_own_linux_repeat_microsoft_has_developed_its_own_linux/

[4] https://www.theregister.com/2013/08/24/top_10_steve_ballmer_quotes_from_microsoft_history/

[5] https://www.theregister.com/2020/09/24/exchange_2022/

[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_datacentre/cloud&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YCEZyfzgzmfWtohhDr-7ZQAAAAE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[7] https://www.theregister.com/2021/02/03/windows_10_cloud_config/

[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_datacentre/cloud&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YCEZyfzgzmfWtohhDr-7ZQAAAAE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2020/11/17/canalys_q3_pc/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2021/02/03/windows_10_cloud_config/

[11] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_datacentre/cloud&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YCEZyfzgzmfWtohhDr-7ZQAAAAE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[12] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/

Chromebook is particularly good at fulfilling its promise of looking after itself.

sabroni

Really? I've never used a Chromebook but both my adult children had one and both have gone back to Windows. Both Chromebooks degraded so seriously over the course of 12-18 months that they became effectively unusable.

That's my anecdote, anyone got experience of long lived Chromebooks that haven't snarled themselves up?

Re: Chromebook is particularly good at fulfilling its promise of looking after itself.

Simon Ward

That's my anecdote, anyone got experience of long lived Chromebooks that haven't snarled themselves up?

I can give you several - I've been using various Chromebooks as my 'main' laptop for at least 5 years now; first thing I generally do is install crouton and put a 'proper' Linux setup on there; the last time I checked the 'native' Linux support (then in beta ... hah!) the performance was terrible.

Anyway.

My 'first' Chromebook, an Acer of some description, was passed down to my father who, to the best of my knowledge is still using it. Suffice to say I've not had to do any parental tech support for quite a while. My 'second' Chromebook was given to my partner when her ancient Vaio reached the point where booting up became more of a miss than a hit; that particular machine, which had definitely been in the wars, finally succumbed to display issues after being dropped one too many times - in the 2-3 years she had the machine I never had to do anything to it. It was replaced, at her request no less, with another Chromebook. That ain't bad going for something that was supposed to be an interim replacement.

So yeah, whilst there'll inevitably be some outliers, my own experience is that Chromebooks are indeed quite capable of looking after themselves. In addition, a lot will depend on your individual use-case.

My biggest beef is that despite the fact that ChromeOS is basically a 'crippled' Linux distro and, in all fairness, is pretty good at what it does, I'd much prefer to be able to boot into a full-fat Linux[*] from the get-go rather than have to muck around with chroots.

[*] - I'm aware it can be done, but it's rather more faff than I fancy right now; one for the future though.

and...

Anonymous Coward

quote

Chromebook is well defined and stable it'll be an attractive place for third parties to set up shop. It has the potential to become a self-supporting ecosystem with benefits for everyone.

The biggest beneficiary is Google. All that lovely data being sent their way by each and every one of their locked-in users. The biggest loser here is Microsoft.

As much as I dislike Google and everything they stand for (slurp, slurp and BB incarnate) Chromebook users can break away from the stranglehold that Microsoft has on users minds. IE is not the Internet.

Yes, that is old but the perception from most average people is that Windows is the only way to go. Schools don't help by forcing children down the MS Orifice route during large parts of their education.

The remaining question for me is...

Do I loathe Google more or less than how much I loathe Microsoft?

The jury is out on that one. Either way, I intend to carry on using neither of them or their products. The only time I have to use anything of google's is for those silly Captcha things.

Re: and...

stungebag

This view of the world is well out of date, but that was obvious as soon as you mentioned IE. As I'm sure you know Microsoft's browser was replaced yonks ago and is now Chromium-based. What you may not know is that Chrome is the universal browser for home users (except on Mac?). As volunteer I meet many older people who use computers and don't think I've met one who uses Edge. They don't know what it is. The unsophisticated computer user these days doesn't know a browser from a search engine from a computer, but they do know that they use Google for almost everything, and they start by clicking that nice round red, green, yellow and blue icon.

A Windows stranglehold, you say? Have MacBooks ever been so popular? And a very large chunk of those home users that would once have bought Windows now get by with a tablet. Schools, another subject you mention but that I know something about, may well use Office - unless they use G Suite, which very many do.

Pun intended?

Throgmorton Horatio III

"eclectic motor on the driveshaft."

That would certainly be an unusual choice of motive power, no doubt driven by irony.

Disagree

The Original Steve

Whilst they are bloody awful regardless of the OS, the chepeast Windows laptop kicking around is circa £200 or so. Given that most businesses have sucumb to purchasing a subscription for productivity and management (GSuite or M365) that's kind of seperate.

A poor computing experience regardless of platform choice, but a smooth (in terms of pre-configuration and support) experience can be had regardless if it's Windows with M365 or a Chromebook with GSuite in charge. The management from InTune is actually pretty good to be honest. I miss the advanced stuff in Group Policy, but as an MDM it's fairly solid.

My own anecdote: I started a new role at the start of the year and was sent a Lenovo X1 Carbon with an i7 and 16GB RAM plus Thunderbolt dock on W10 Ent managed via M365 / InTune.

My SO started her new job 2 weeks later and had a new Lenovo Chromebook sent to her. Everytime she sees me working she pretty much turns green with envy. Poor trackpad and keyboard, battery life is fairly comprable and she's now paying for a 4G backup SIM / WiFi dongle after we had a broadband outage for 3 hours meaning she couldn't work at all. Coupled with having to use her LOB app via RemoteApp (so still paying MS a licence fee for it as it's hosted on a RDS farm in Azure) I know she would much rather have a "normal PC" to work from.

Who wants a cloud OS?

LDS

No thanks. We don't need more stinkin' walled gardens where subscription rules and developers need to bend to their overlords taxes on each application they distribute. Where even developing and installing your own software requires a developer subscription?

Microsoft and Windows may have many issues, but at least you can still run any software you like whenever you like - and write your own with any tool you like. I don't want my desktop resemble my phone, I hate the latter enough already.

Apples and oranges

fwthinks

I don't fully understand the comparison - I see Chromebooks as android tablets on steroids and have a specific use case - basic browsing & productivity . Maybe this is what most people need, but that is different to saying that Chromebooks are better than Windows laptops.

Maybe where Google are winning, is in convincing people that Chromebooks are equivalent to Laptops. I know people who have bought Chromebooks and then were disappointed in their limited functionality - which suggests that there is a element of hype in their sales pitch. On the other side, you have vendors selling cheap Windows laptops which struggle to do anything basic and make Windows look a waste of money.

Contributing? Surely you jest ...

oiseau

Microsoft is contributing so much to open source now ...

Really?

How about this: Microsoft is slowly but steadily infecting open source now ...

Reads like a more accurate description of what is happening.

Not without stressing that my pointing this out is not in any way an excuse for Google and what they do.

From a post here at ElReg by AC (20180614) which sums it up quite nicely:

"Linux, Linux Foundation, R, Git, Atom/Electron, MariaDB, Python, Mozilla, RedHat, Debian, Gnome, KDE, ... are all being "disrupted" by M$. Their trojan horses infiltrate all important open source free software foundations and companies (EEE Nokia style). (M$ is a sponsor to all of these foundations! And Linux Foundation congratulated M$ for buying Github! WTF) ..."

I find it tragic that you [an ElReg staffer/contributor] do not or maybe just choose not to see it and then spread such BS.

O.

When you speak to others for their own good it's advice;
when they speak to you for your own good it's interference.