Smartphones are becoming like white goods, says analyst, with users only upgrading when their handsets break
- Reference: 1611594127
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2021/01/25/smartphones_are_becoming_like_white/
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In a survey of around 1,000 UK consumers, CCS Insight found that nearly 34 per cent believe they'll hang on to their current phones longer than previous models. This is more than double the amount of respondents who expected a swifter upgrade cycle. Refesh is not driven by a desire for the latest tech, but rather to replace an already broken phone.
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"The phone market is evolving from routine two-yearly upgrades to one more closely resembling the market for white goods, which are often only changed when they stop working," said the analyst.
Over the past few years, the smartphone market has made tentative steps towards something resembling longevity, with devices receiving longer and longer support. Apple is the leader here, and [2]still provides patches to the first-generation iPhone SE and iPhone 6s , despite the handsets being almost six years old. That, in the consumer space, is an eternity.
[3]
This is still the droid you are looking for
Android vendors don't perform quite as well, but there are obvious signs of improvement, with more and more brands promising at least three years' worth of updates. This is happening both within the Android One programme, and also independently of it. Samsung is a notable example of a brand that has committed to [4]providing its devices with long-term support .
This gives consumers an incentive to hang onto their phones for longer, but it's not the only part of the equation. Over the past five years, the leaps in performance and functionality between smartphone generations have become more and more marginal. If you're looking for something to make calls and check emails, the [5]iPhone 6S is functionally just as capable as the [6]iPhone 12 . It's not like how things were at the start of the 2010s, when phones meaningfully improved with each refresh, ditching low-res resistive screens for bigger, better capacitive versions, and packing faster silicon.
Some analysts, [7]including Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi , have postulated the average refresh cycle has elongated to as much as four years. There's some evidence for that, with Apple CEO Tim Cook previously [8]blaming upgrade holdouts for a 15 per cent slump in iPhone revenue .
Industry-wide, we've seen [9]plateauing sales since 2015 as the market reached its [10]inevitable limits .
75 million smartphone sales up in smoke in Q1: Let's drill down into which brands took the most pain [11]READ MORE
It's not just the upgrade frequency that has changed. CCS Insight's data points to meaningful differences in how consumers buy phones, with almost two-thirds (63 per cent) of respondents choosing to head online rather than go in store. Before 2019, that number was just 36 per cent. In the same period, the high street's share of the pie diminished from 53 per cent to just 28 per cent.
You can blame the pandemic for this. Lockdowns, and a wariness to venture outside by some consumers, has had a profound impact on retail mobile sales, accelerating an existing trend. But that's not the whole story. The [12]closure of 500 Carphone Warehouse stores in March also played a role, said CCS Insight.
Retail still has its place, with respondents saying they visited a store to obtain technical support (20 per cent), query their contract or bill (13 per cent), or buy an accessory (18 per cent). CCS Insight also highlighted an increasing popularity in trade-ins and pre-owned devices, both of which are easier to do in-person than remotely. But the time of bricks and mortar stores as the primary place where people obtain new handsets has finished.
"Phone shops will remain a vital channel for the industry, but it's clear their role is evolving," said CCS Insight analyst Kester Mann.
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"Retailers need to find the right balance between selling, supporting customers and showcasing new technology to create some much-needed buzz for the sector. Successful companies will be those best able to integrate their strategy for retail and online selling, offering customers a coherent and complementary experience at every step of the way." ®
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[2] https://support.apple.com/en-gb/guide/iphone/iphe3fa5df43/ios
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_personal_tech/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YA9NhvZDnBJN816LIeS7HAAAAJU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2020/04/07/samsung_pulls_galaxy_s7_security_updates/
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2015/09/09/iphone_6s_6s_plus/
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2020/10/13/apple_iphone_launch/
[7] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/08/apple-iphone-replacement-cycle-slowing-toni-sacconaghi-says.html
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2019/01/17/most_munificient_apple_killed_itself_with_kindness_oh_really/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2015/08/20/people_bored_of_mobes_says_magic_quadrant_wizards/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2016/03/31/gartner_2016_smart_phone_boom_years_gone/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2020/06/01/xiaomi_sales_market_share_up_q1/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2020/03/17/carphone_warehouse_closes_all_541_stores/
[13] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_personal_tech/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YA9NhvZDnBJN816LIeS7HAAAAJU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[14] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Not a lot of new features?
Well, the phone companies especially, EE seem to think otherwise.
What about 5G
Deathly silence... I guess no one really cares. I don't. If I could get 4G in more than one room in my house it would be great. Thankfully, these days, I make all my calls over WiFi.
Re: Not a lot of new features?
As one who keeps his phone until it starts to die, the new (actually retro) feature that consumers need is a replaceable battery.
Like that will ever happen.
Spot on. I only upgraded my old (second hand) phone to another second hand phone when some key apps were going to stop working.
My old phone is still used as a media player and SatNav.
New Features
Bargain basement smartphones have all the features users want. Other than photo and video, they are just as capable as their more expensive brethren at the core functions of a phone (phone calling and texting). They may lack the horsepower to run something Orifice well (memory and cpu limitations mostly). But if you are not running something like Orifice on your phone there is no pressing need to update your phone when new ones are released. And in some cases a mid range phone may have enough horsepower to run something like Orifice.
The high end phones are (over)sold based on their photo and video capabilities. Physics basically limits the photo and video capabilities for 2 reasons. The lens are fixed focal length. The sensors are very small. Both force the phone manufacturers to rely on more processing to make up for optical deficiencies of the camera which usually does a very acceptable job. So the phones need more horsepower for efficient optical processing.
Re: New Features
Google's Pixel magic algorithms originally came from efforts to coax usable images out of the camera on the Google Glass (a camera module which was even smaller than the sensors used on phones at the time or today). And yeah, Google, like Apple and later Qualcomm et al developed hardware accellerators to be baked into their SoCs for this sort of computation.
I wouldn't let yourself be confused by the mere accident of history that led to us referring to our pocket internet terminals / connected PDAs as 'phones', though. The 'core function(s)' of the general purpose device depends upon the individual user.
Re: New Features
Googles "magic' algorithms are just something MS and Nokia on the Winphone were doing
years before.
They all look the same these days....
Given that they are all just screen on sided and they all pretty much look the same. No matter how slick and sexy you make an add, you are still just selling a big fat choco block device.
Re: They all look the same these days....
Form follows function, so yeah, these things that people use for viewing text and video do all look like screens.
Interdependent variables
... and self-fulfilling prophecies.
Example:
User in 2018 needs a new phone for whatever reason. They notice that the latest phones don't represent a massive upgrade over their last phone, compared to the advances that they saw in their past upgrades. The user can't imagine any near future phone as suddenly introducing a 'must have' new feature or being leaps and bounds ahead of existing phones.
Therefore: they decide that whatever phone they buy will do a good job for next few years. Having decided that they will be buying a phone for next several years they spend a bit more on it (to get full features, wireless charging, waterproofing, nice screen, better camera, whatever). Knowing it is a pricier model that has to last them for years, they use a good case, screen protectors, and generally take good care if it.
In short, some variables may be independent, some variables interact with each other.
No Surprises
My previous mobile lasted 8 years and was only replaced in 2016 because I wanted to link it to a new car. Apart from using Bluetooth the linking has been largely ignored.
More recently I downloaded an activity application, on second thoughts about 3 years ago.
I have just realised the mobile is now about 5 years old, I barely care about OS updates since I do not use it for financial or other sensitive work.
The battery is still OK, it lasts all day, other than it is a bit slow so, just where is the replacement incentive?
Been [there] for years
I generally keep my phone until it either dies or is no longer supported by the apps I want to run (which I consider an extremely displeasant choice by the developers).
Anyway, who buys "new"? I buy last season's best models as new leftovers off eBay at a fraction of what the greedy telco carriers want to charge me for this year's hype.
My current mobile is an iPhone 7, before that it was an iPhone 3. I have no intention of 'upgrading' until it fails to do what I need.
I'm still on the iPhone 6s; unless and until it breaks or stops receiving security updates I expect to continue to be. It runs the current version of the OS (i.e. 14) without any obvious performance issues, and Apple released a security update for the OS two versions ago (i.e. 12) as recently as this month so I'm optimistic I'll get to 2023...
Which I like because in 2023 my iPhone 6s will be as old as the original iPhone was when the 6s came out.
I can think of a world of reasons why an original iPhone would have been next to useless in 2015; I can't think of anything an iPhone since 2015 adds that I actually consider to be worth an upgrade here in 2021. And even then, 2015 is an arbitrary pick just because that's the vintage of my current phone. If I still had a 6 (from 2014) or a 5s (from 2013) with no performance issues I think I'd be equally happy...
in store sales
"You can blame the pandemic for this. Lockdowns, and a wariness to venture outside by some consumers, has had a profound impact on retail mobile sales"
You can also blame the carriers. AT&T at least seemed to be trying to make the phone purchase experience similar to that of buying a car. Browse inventory for a while, then sit with a sales droid who wants to upsell an extended warranty, at least an hour ordeal before you got out of the store. No thanks guys, I bought online and swapped my SIM card the last two times I bought a phone.
Re: in store sales
AT&T exec 1: Revenues from phone sales are dropping. What can we do?
Exec 2: You mean long-term?
Exec 1: Hahaha.
Exec 2: Hahaha, yeah, let's just start bombarding them with upsell and warranties and whatever. Run this nonsense into the ground. That should protect this year's bonus.
It's only that apps would not support older versions of Android anymore that I had to leave behind my Passport and KeyOne :-(
Damn, i love me that physical keyboard.
I with
the hold on to it crowd.
My last phone (galaxy S3) lasted until the battery died and the USB charging slot was knackered (I could replace both and have a usuable phone ) and I went for a samsung galaxy J3... based not on technical capabilites , or on contract price etc etc , but based on what was the smallest phone that could safely live in my jeans pocket.
Its worked very well and even though its coming up on 4yrs old, still holds a charge, does the job and I see no reason to change.
But then I'm an old fogey and not impressed with the need to have the latest 'bling'
And it can play missile command too ... eeekk smart bombs :D
Becoming like?
Given that the average smartphone is as exciting as the average fridge, and has been for a decade, this is not news to anyone except the people who make smartphones, including a former employer of mine who I'm not allowed to name, who thought that smartphones would permit humans to transcend their physical limitations, or some such utter shit. I"m not fucking joking.
"You can blame Lockdowns for this"
No, phone maker, *You* will blame lockdowns for waking people up to the fact that when they don't venture into your emporia of tat they don't feel the need to "upgrade" to something that is the same as they already have but slightly less scratched.
Your unsustainable business model has been called out and found wanting. Now try making monkey by not ripping people off. What's that? Your products are so indistinguishabke from each other that you can't charge premium prices any more? Boo hoo poor you. Go sit on a hot spike.
Customization
I spend a lot of time and effort setting up my phone the way I want it. For example, I need to root my phone, because my garage door app needs to turn the GPS and cell data on/off when I leave or come back home.
A new phone means I have to redo that several weeks of work, and also with the new versions of Android means I might have to do it differently or not at all.
So I keep my phone as long as possible because it represents a not insignificant investment in something other than money.
Not just the Jesusphone neiver..
Oneplus are also pretty goof update-wise: My 5 got Android 10 the other month and now everything including call recording, works as advertised - it had stopped at their first attempt at the 10 update... but they persisted.
It's time to upgrade?
I'm sure that the manufacturers can fix this "problem" by making the batteries die sooner. Over the years I've upgraded multiple working Android phones because each new software "update" breaks features. The latest Android is so "secure" that my Pixel-3 is becoming difficult to use but luckily my old Nexus hasn't had any upgrades for a while so I'm thinking I might simply go back to using it when the Pixel battery quits.
Ever since I bought a decent cover for my phone, I've stopped smashing the bloody things on a night out.
Featurephone won't quit
Still using my (secondhand) 10-year-old Samsung Ch@t 335 here. I do have a smartphone inherited from my daughter ready for when it finally dies, for the moment it's wifi-only, not rooted but all Googly stuff is disabled and I only use F-Droid apps.
As expensive as flagship phones are they should be grateful anybody ever upgrades.
Considering that most flagship phones blow right past the $1000 mark, I think it's a bit disingenuous for anyone to complain about people wanting to keep their phones as long as possible.
Apart from marginally better cameras each generation, there is no real reason for many not to simply use their phone for 4 or more years.
Then if the phone's batteries happen to magically die after 2 years, most likely anybody not locked into apple will pick a different brand.
Going to a "phone store" to get the phone or a service plan is probably the worst idea ever.
Call up the customer support line on most major carriers here in the USA and they will tell you pretty plainly NOT to go to (their own) branded stores for a phone unless you enjoy being a chump.
Re: As expensive as flagship phones are they should be grateful anybody ever upgrades.
Do those execs really believe it is realistic to expect consumers to spend $10,000 on phones in 10 years? Or even $5,000 in 10 years? For every person in the household?!?!
Even whitegoods don't cost that much - and you only need one of each appliance for the entire household...
Ill upgrade when there's a new killer feature
I upgraded early from iPhone 7 to XSMax because of dual sim... genuinely useful for me for work/personal.
But this XSMax will keep going until the battery dies.
Slightly better cameras, MagSafe and 5G isn't enough to warrant another £1300 yet.
Re: Ill upgrade when there's a new killer feature
“Will keep going until the battery dies” - the battery can be replaced. Not that cheap, but cheaper than a new phone. And an XS max will be a decent phone for quite a long time.
Actually
Apple provides patches for phones all the way back to iPhone 5S that came out in 2013. The 5S and 6 aren't on iOS 14, but are supported by iOS 12 which still receives security (but not feature) updates.
Re: Actually
Actually, the iPhone 5s and 6 just got an update that makes the Covid tracking work on iOS 12; that used to require iOS 13.
Just off S8
...and only because the USB charging port is playing up badly. Otherwise I wouldn't have bothered.
In the end, migrated to a top end Xiaomi which was substantially cheaper than the usual suspects
There isn't a lot of new features coming out when companies realise a new flagship phone these days. It all increments such as slightly better camera, a bit faster CPU or more memory. So there is less incentive to upgrade.
As for security updates, I think the majority of end users don't even know whether they should be getting security updates or not. And that is partly because they have become like white goods like the article mentions. No one thinks about whether their washing machine or fridge needs any updates. And as long as the apps people want to use still work, they will carry on using the phone even if they no longer receive security patches. None of the phones i have had haven't informed me that there were no more security updates when it reached EOL, they just stop coming.