IBM builds AI that correctly predicts onset of Alzheimer’s 71% of the time, better than standard clinical tests
- Reference: 1603439650
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/10/23/ai_alzheimers_ibm/
- Source link:
IBM [1]claims its software was capable of correctly predicting the onset of Alzheimer’s 71 per cent of the time, compared to 59 per cent for standard clinical techniques, by analyzing the descriptive abilities of people as they age for warning signs that the disease is taking hold.
“Our results demonstrate that it is possible to predict future onset of Alzheimer's disease using language samples obtained from cognitively normal individuals,” the team wrote in a paper [2]published in The Lancet's EClinicalMedicine journal on Thursday.
Elon Musk's new idea is to hook your noggin up to an AI – but is he just insane about the brain? [3]READ MORE
Using data from America's Framingham Heart Study, which has examined more than 5,000 Massachusetts participants and their families since 1948, the IBM-Pfizer team trained their system using the results from cognitive tests administered every four years. Speaking in short sentences with less complex grammatical structures, and a repetition of the same words, are often signals that a patient is at a higher risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease, as well as other identifiers. All of which a computer can learn to pick up on.
“The most prominent ones are lack of specificity in naming objects and actions, repetitions, and poverty of grammatical constructions,” Guillermo Cecchi, co-author of the study and an IBM principal research staff member told The Register .
Specifically, the researchers trained their system to look for signs of speech impairment by analyzing 703 language samples from 270 patients. The model was then tested on 80 participants; where the average age of the group was in the late 70s. The software was able to successfully predict the onset of Alzheimer’s before an official diagnosis correctly seven in ten times.
“Ultimately, we hope this research will take root and aid in the future development of a simple, straightforward and easily accessible tool to help clinicians assess a patient’s risk of Alzheimer’s disease through the analysis of speech and language, and in conjunction with a number of other facets of an individual’s health and biometrics,” Cecchi [4]said . ®
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[1] https://newsroom.ibm.com/5-Things-to-Know-About-IBMs-AI-Predictor-for-Alzheimers-Disease
[2] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30327-8/fulltext#%20
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2019/07/18/musk_neuralink_brain_interface/
[4] https://www.ibm.com/blogs/research/2020/10/ai-predict-alzheimers/
[5] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
I take your point on incorrect diagnoses. and a 29% failure rate is probably not one that would cause me do all the paperwork and quietly top myself, but if it is an improvement on current diagnoses and can be used to direct other tests then it is better than what we can do at the moment.
On the sentence construction how would Hemmingway have done:-? Maybe I have misunderstood, but this would appear an appropriate way of monitoring changes in language and therefore part of a continuous monitoring system?
Perfection paradox
And when the AI system has been perfected to recognize the onset of the disease, then it will predict its own demise by forgetting to tell the user about its own condition. Perfection can only mean that it will share the human condition and ultimately degenerate until no viable matter remains.
Now, where is that AI that can ingest Beer?
I'm guessing...
...that there is no chance either of the US presidential candidates will be taking the test anytime soon.....although it looks as if Biden would trump Trump...
Meh.
I rank that along with 84% of women said their skin felt better after miracle cream (sample size 97 people).
BTW I bet the relatives of those people got WAY higher results.
Testing, testing...
"Speaking in short sentences with less complex grammatical structures, and a repetition of the same words, are often signals that a patient is at a higher risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease,..."
Now which well-known politician could that description fit?
Just what will, indeed could, be done with this information?
Assuming they can correctly predict Alzheimer's, so far as I know there is currently no effective treatment. In which case, about the only advantages I can see are a) allows time to make decisions and tidy things up; b) avoids treatment for other possibilities. And, just how long before any real deterioration would anyone wish to know this diagnosis?
But what if they wrongly predict Alzheimer's and the issue is actually a treatable condition? I have seen someone with a thyroid conditions more or less diagnosed with dementia and, possibly, Parkinson's. I am aware of people with Pernicious Anaemia who have been diagnosed with brain and mental conditions. Both of which can improve massively with treatment. (Though there are still major arguments about the exact choices of treatment.)