Tesla to build cars made of batteries and hit $25k price tag about three years down the road
- Reference: 1600849572
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/09/23/tesla_future/
- Source link:
The company on Tuesday staged its annual general meeting and followed it with a “battery day”. The event was a peculiar spectacle as it took place in a parking lot and social distancing requirements meant that attendees drove to the event and then sat in their cars during presentations. Tesla co-founder Elon Musk and other execs presented from a stage backed by a colossal screen. Attendees sounded their horns in lieu of applause or when asked by Musk if he was audible.
The event was largely devoted to new battery technology and Tesla’s efforts to halve costs per kilowatt-hour through cell design, use of new materials and manufacturing efficiencies.
[1]
Tesla's drive-in AGM, seen from the stage. Click to enlarge
Musk explained that Tesla has created new cell designs that shorten the path an electron takes through a battery. Doing so makes batteries more efficient and helps them to run cooler.
The company also hopes to phase out cobalt in anodes and cathodes, as it is expensive. More nickel – a cheaper and abundant substance – is Tesla’s plan.
So are “structural batteries”. Musk said Telsa intends future models will use batteries both an energy source and the car’s structure, saying this is a transition to compare with the first aircraft designs that placed fuel tanks within a plane’s wings.
Investors were shown what looked like CAD drawings of the front of a chassis, with the implication being that much of the metal would be batteries.
Musk and his colleagues promised 56 per cent dollar-per-kWh cost reductions and a 54 per cent range increase could follow these innovations. Musk’s bottom line was a “compelling” $25,000 electric vehicle, complete with full autonomous driving mode, that he thinks takes the category into the mainstream.
But Musk said Tesla needs at least eighteen months to bring its new innovations to market, and three to produce them in sufficient quantity to make the $25k car possible.
He also outlined Tesla’s ambition to produce 20 million cars a year, a figure that would replace 1 per cent of the world’s current liquid-powered fleet.
Musk’s presentation, as is generally the case, started late and felt rather unrehearsed. But the assembled investors lapped it up, honking lustily at the company’s news.
Investors were less impressed: Tesla shares fell around 5 per cent after the presentation, but are still trading at more than double their price in January 2020. ®
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[1] https://regmedia.co.uk/2020/09/23/video_presentation_screenshot_tesla_agm.jpg
[2] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Applefying the car
Fuel tanks most certainly can hold water.
Re: Applefying the car
But they rust faster if they do.
Re: Applefying the car
Yes, but you can just Araldite a 2p bit over the rust hole.
I don't think that works for batteries.
Re: Applefying the car
I'd love to see the costs of replacing a single battery cell (of the new type). As the OP said, Tesla will probably try to sell you a new car. That's really sustainable (NOT).
A ding to a wing can cost up to $6000 US to repair. A ding to a wing and a door and the insurance companies may well declare the $25K car a right-off. Again not good for sustainability.
There again, Musk promises so much that even with a few failures he comes out ahead.
Does anyone remember the 'Coast to Coast by FSD' by the end of what was it? AFAIK, it was 2018. Still not happened.
They really need to improve the quality of what they build or they will truly become throw away cars which does zero for their sustainability creds. The factory in China is already beating Freemont on quality. Berlin will do the same but the yanks will never admit it.
Fit and finish are not Tesla's strong points.
Then there is the 'always connected' bit. If you piss of Musk too much who's to say that he won't get an update pushed to your car and effectively brick it. You don't own a Tesla. you merely have his permission to drive it.
I am very happy with my 2020 Leaf thanks. It beats my brother's Model 3 on build quality everywhere. Even he who is a fully paid up member of the 'church of Musk' admits it. Grudgingly but he does.
Well done to the people in Sunderland. Shame that what is left of the Motor Industry in the UK will be leaving in 2021/22.
Re: Applefying the car
yes, comparisons between my partners BMW i3 and my Tesla are not flattering to the Tesla.
Re: Applefying the car
Your comments on quality compared to other electric vehicles is interesting. The last time I got my 21-year old Ford Focus* serviced I asked the mechanic about electric cars, and he claimed that Teslas were much better than the others. (I have no personal experience of electric cars outside the dodgems at fairgrounds.)
*About 130,000 miles, and still gets 46 mpg at a steady 56 mph on the motorway, not bad for a 1.8L petrol engined car, methinks (I await correction from the petrolheads of el Reg).
Re: Applefying the car
In most developed countries, I would imagine that the vast majority of cars do not experience damage requiring repair of the kind that would be a problem if the structure was battery. In that case, the efficiency and cost improvements are quite compelling.
This probably isn't going to hack it in India and China, where the standards of driving are pretty appalling and it's just assume that cars bump into each other all the time.
Replacing batteries is less of a concern if the decline in performance is 10-20% over a 15 year lifespan, that would be similar to what one might expect in an IC engine, as seals and other components degrade. Yes, you can replace an engine, but few cars do. They just get scrapped.
My main concern would be the reliance on software and updates. We've all owned phones that have been cut loose on updates, and found quite quickly that they are unusable for all but telephone calls.
Re: Applefying the car
>>>where the standards of driving are pretty appalling<<<
So no use for driving in Paris either then.
Paris Driving
You won't be able to drive in Paris soon.
All the Corona bike lanes and the areas closed to traffic because of Corona are going to become permanent, and inside the Périphérique the speed limit is going to be lowered to 30km/h everywhere ( as if it was already still possible to go faster than that due to traffic.
Add to that the will to transform the Périphérique from an urban motorway to a normal street ( with traffic lights, pedestrian crossings, bike lanes, bus lanes and greeneries )...
Structural Batteries?!
I can't be the only person who thinks they haven't thought this absolutely terrible idea entirely through?
Teslas already are pretty notorious for how easily their batteries catch on fire in accidents and the difficulty of putting out said battery fires. Making the batteries into a structural component, meaning they'll be damaged in anything bigger than a minor fender bender, means that these new cars will be more flammable than a Pinto. It's crazy.
The Tesla engineers will do it anyway because Phony Stark demands it, but good lord this is going to get people killed.
Re: Structural Batteries?!
The idea of making the front end of the car out of batteries is ludicrous, it would be horrible for crash-test performance.
But, structural batteries (implemented sanely) is a reasonable idea. They already have a solid, fairly stiff battery pack at the bottom of the car. However, it looks like the chassis is designed to be strong enough even without that battery pack. They could remove a lot of structural metal at the bottom of the car, and rely on the battery pack's strength. Designing the battery pack appropriately could give them extra strength. With careful design, the battery pack can be bolted into place and still be removable should it need replacing.
And this is Musk we're talking about. It's perfectly normal for him to announce ludicrous plans or even demo ludicrous things, that quietly get dropped or scaled-back later. It's also perfectly normal for things that do actually appear to take many times longer than he claims, so don't expect this new car to be starting production in 18 months.
Musk is a great showman, he can make these wild and clearly bonkers claims, and get people to believe him. Investors give him their money; the press loves giving him lots of coverage which is free advertising for Tesla, and customers buy his products.
But, he does usually deliver something that matches his less-outrageous claims, so I certainly expect structural batteries in a future car or even in an updated version of the existing cars (to reduce manufacturing costs).
Re: Structural Batteries?!
He's such a good showman that, quite often, physics also believes his crazy ideas, and his company autodocks a spaceship with the ISS while autolanding the fuel tanks on autobarges.
Re: Structural Batteries?!
In all fairness, his engineers tend to have long, long talks with Physics before it comes around to Musk's ideas.
Just don't anyone mention combustible lemons.
Re: Structural Batteries?!
Quote: "The idea of making the front end of the car out of batteries is ludicrous, it would be horrible for crash-test performance.
And Tesla have already shown this isn't what they are doing. i.e. they are trying to implemented sanely .
The batteries are still going to basically be in the same place as they are now, i.e. in the centre section of the chassis, basically as a flat plate, just as they are now. It's just that they will be an integral part of that centre section, rather than a separate module bolted on to the chassis afterwards.
They also said this should make the car about 10% lighter, and also safer from side impacts, as it allows the batteries to be concentrated more towards the centre of the car, and so leave a larger gap between the side panels and the batteries themselves. (The new batteries are taller as well as denser, so take up more height, but use less width).
Apologies these are on MSN!
The chassis: [1]https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB19jZy2.img
Front on view of the battery layout: [2]https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB19k6lU.img
Article: [3]https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/future-tesla-cars-will-use-batteries-for-shell-structure/ar-BB19k1It
[1] https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB19jZy2.img
[2] https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB19k6lU.img
[3] https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/future-tesla-cars-will-use-batteries-for-shell-structure/ar-BB19k1It
Re: Structural Batteries?!
With the current prediliction of lithium batteries to burn with the slightest puncture, structural batteries are a dumb idea, if you don't believe me, have a walk around a scrapyard and look at the bent bits on a few write offs.
Current battery technology really requires secure installation in a well protected compartment to prevent the incineration of the occupants in a crash.
Unless Musk has something new up his sleeve, it's just the weed talking, generally I am a fan but occasionally he does talk rubbish.
Upkeep and repair
Tesla is the reason I haven't bought a Tesla. I hear that keeping them running and either not becoming a pauper in the process or losing your sanity is a major accomplishment.
Re: Upkeep and repair
Tesla's main problem is vehicle cost and build quality. Some defects would be covered under warranty but apparently things like panel gaps aren't. That's where they're playing catchup on established manufacturers in ensuring that they don't put lemons on the road.
Assuming your vehicle is okay I don't see how you'd have any trouble with operating costs. The thing costs less to refuel, has less mechanical parts to service and has good resale value.
Re: resale value
It's only good until people realise the [1]problems that may come with second-hand ownership of Teslas
[1] https://electrek.co/2020/02/07/tesla-takes-away-autopilot-used-car-sold-dealer/
Re: resale value
What Tesla giveth, Tesla can taketh away.
At least in Europe, Model 3's use CCS charging so you aren't limited to the supercharger network if you want more then 50kWh charging (with an expensive dongle)
What is it with Tesla in that they don't provide Android Auto or Apple Car Play? Pretty well all others do even if some like BMW charge silly money for it.
Re: Upkeep and repair
Latest reliability by sector results from the automotive world show hybrids to be more reliable than pure electrics, despite being more complex.
Why?
Digging into the figures shows that Tesla singlehandedly do for electric statistics what Land Rover do for SUVs (which actually aren't the most horribly unreliable POSs once you take Land Rover out of the figures)
Tesla might become an irrelevance
As other companies catch up and overtake, Tesla might become an irrelevance... but what a ride while it lasted!
The state of autonomy
Tesla's auto summon can't even navigate an outdoor car park properly so what faith should we place on it doing things properly on the open road and at speed?
Obvious possible problem
" the front of a chassis, with the implication being that much of the metal would be batteries. "
What happens in a crash which stoves in the front of the chassis? What stops those batteries shorting out and catching fire?
Re: Obvious possible problem
Except that there are no batteries in the front section to short out.
All Tesla have said is that the centre section, where the batteries are already, is going to become part of the chassis, rather than a separate battery module that you bolt onto the chassis afterwards.
At the moment the chassis is made up of lots of stamped or moulded bits, that are then welded or otherwise fastened together, to make up a complete chassis. The battery pack is then bolted to the chassis afterwards.
Tesla plan on stamping out the front and rear sections of the car, as two separate single pieces, and then build a central section that incorporates the batteries. So you basically have three parts for the main chassis, a front, centre and back. Bolt these three together, and you've got yourself a complete chassis including the batteries.
Main issue could likely be how replaceable is this centre section? i.e. Could you clamp the car in place, then remove the centre section? So replace this with a new one? And therefore still replace the battery. Or is this a case of potential built in obsolescence, once the battery is worn out, do you replace the whole car?
Disposable tech
The first car to get an iFixit teardown and repairability score?
Not sure about the structure but..
Removal of Cobalt from the batteries is a good move given that a lot of it's sourcing isn't ethical (child labour, etc). I guess a big point of that wasn't made since that would be admitting that they were okay with the ethical issues sourcing it until something cheaper came along or it got more expensive to continue to use it.
Tesla's main problem is that the person who runs it is completely barking mad.
That and the build quality and reliability is poor.
The year of fully autonomous Tesla is just after the year of the Linux desktop
A bit of news from 2038: Musk promises full self driving for sometimes in the next two years.
Amnesia check indicated?
Elon Musk is good at doing one thing only: promising .
I seem to remember that his last promise of a "low-cost" version was not "low-cost", at all, after all the add-ons Tesla mandated.
Memory problems, folks? Or serious case of Confirmation Bias?
Re: Amnesia check indicated?
I seem to remember that his last promise of a "low-cost" version was not "low-cost", at all, after all the add-ons Tesla mandated.
Yup-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Onajosm9PWo&t=2m48s
From 2007, discussing the planned Model 3. Then the not-low-cost deliveries started 10 years later. He also made the "low cost" claim in 2018, which is probably why the market was a bit sceptical about the claims.
Applefying the car
So how do you replace "structural batteries"? Comparisons to fuel tanks do not hold water, because the latter do not wear down. Musk's answer is probably "just buy a new Tesla".