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  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Tech ambitions said to lie at heart of Britain’s bonkers crash-and-burn Brexit plan

(2020/09/08)


Opinion In an unprecedented year for the world, it might be easy to forget that, in the midst of the global COVID-19 pandemic, other unprecedented things are still happening. Yes, the UK’s favourite portmanteau, Brexit, is coming back to blight Britain.

News hit the streets this week that the [1]chances of a deal with the EU are beginning to ebb away , with the UK said to be taking a hardline on negotiations.

But why are UK prime minister Boris Johnson and his team risking leaving the world’s largest trading bloc without a deal, asks Robert Peston, and he has an answer. The political editor of British television network ITV News said [2]in his blog that limits to state aid for private companies, an EU condition for a deal, and the dreams of the prime minister’s chief advisor, Dominic Cummings, serve to explain the move.

“Cummings's passionate conviction is that Johnson's government MUST have the discretion to invest without fetter in hi-tech, digital, artificial intelligence and the full gamut of the so-called fourth industrial revolution,” Peston claimed.

Other than being a fundamentally good thing, the need to invest is made ever more pressing because that sack-full of buzz-word bingo is necessary, not just for the UK’s prosperity, but its very standing in the world.

“Cummings - and we have to assume his boss Johnson too - are obsessed about not being bossed around by the TWO superpowers that already have trillion dollar tech companies, namely the US and China,” the post said.

Competitive state aid

Countries without trillion-dollar companies based on the magic combination of hi-tech, digital, and artificial intelligence will be owned or coerced by those that do, as the “fourth industrial revolution” takes hold, or so the thinking goes.

“The view of Cummings and Johnson is that such a reduction in the actual and underlying growth of national income represents an investment in a more prosperous future” dependent on “precious freedom to direct state resources to the sectors and businesses on which our future success will hinge,” the blog claimed.

It leaves us with a lot to unpack, but let’s have a go. Is it true that state aid helps make trillion-dollar tech companies? The only countries able to develop such companies, the US and China, are currently the only economies able to produce such companies, and their policies on state aid could not be more different. America, which is not big on state aid, got there first with Apple.

China, of course, appears to give an affirmative answer to that question, [3]with state oil and gas firm Petrochina beating Apple to hit the golden $1 trillion in 2007 - and Alibaba and Tencent tipped to get there soon. State aid in a tightly controlled authoritarian political system where there is a fusion of party state and market power – and state-engineered market consolidation – is not really something you can replicate when you posit free market economics as being the central institution of society and democracy, as this Conservative government does.

Ignoring the spurious trillion-dollar benchmark, do state aid rules preclude success in tech? Germany has a fair share of success stories: one of the world’s largest software companies in the nearly $200bn SAP, a gaggle of promising big data and AI companies and a buzzing start-up scene in Berlin. And it has EU state aid rules.

Meanwhile, the UK’s biggest global success, chip-designer Arm, which is behind a large chunk of the smartphone processor market, and was [4]sold to Japanese investment firm SoftBank for £23.4bn in 2016 , emerged while the UK was operating within EU rules.

And what of the UK government’s ability to pick winners in the quest for tech superiority. Well, when it could pick, the British government bought a 10 per cent stake in the newly formed ICL in 1968 and provided $32.4m for R&D after a series of government-forced mergers. Now, no one is saying ICL didn’t make some successful mainframe computers, but it can hardly be said to have turned the UK into a global hi-tech powerhouse either. It was subsequently sold to Fujitsu.

Fast-forward 52 years and the UK is [5]spending around £400m for a chunk of one-time bankrupt satellite firm OneWeb , intended to provide the missing pieces of the puzzle created by the UK’s departure from the EU's Galileo sat-nav system.

If that’s not inspiring much confidence, let’s remind ourselves what the UK is risking in trade negotiations. [6]In 2019, UK exports to the EU were £300bn, 43 per cent of all UK exports, while UK imports from the EU were £372bn, about half of all imports . It is a big stake to put on the table when you’re betting on a bald man and shaggy haired prime minister with [7]no track record in the tech industry . ®

Get our [8]Tech Resources



[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54025314

[2] https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-07/the-reason-why-boris-johnson-is-jeopardising-an-eu-free-trade-deal

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/05/business/worldbusiness/05iht-petrochina.1.8190012.html

[4] https://www.theregister.com/2020/08/12/softbank_q2_2021/

[5] https://www.theregister.com/2020/07/03/uk_buys_oneweb/

[6] https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/#:~:text=In%202019%2C%20UK%20exports%20to,slightly%20to%2045%25%20in%202019.

[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiG1F7FL9Qo&ab_channel=WorldwideNews

[8] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/

State Aid????

Steve Davies 3

The EU and Trump won't like that one little bit. Remember folks that there is a 25% duty on Scottish Single Malt Whisky when it is imported into the USA. This is in retaliation for EU State Aid given to Airbus and at the same time ignoring the huge amounts given to Boeing for the same thing but that's life ain't it!

Re: State Aid????

Version 1.0

You think that the duty on Scotch will vanish on January 1st? I'd love a full glass of Talisker (icon).

Re: State Aid????

HildyJ

That's also the WTO which Boris said the UK will use for EU trade if (when) there's a no deal Brexit.

How's that supposed to work out?

Re: State Aid????

Bonzo_red

Well since the US has hamstrung the WTO's dispute resolution mechanism, the rules are there to be broken.

Re: State Aid????

Danny 2

I, for one, fully support the US import duty on Scottish single malt whisky.

In fact I'd like an equivalent Scottish 25% export duty on Scottish single malt whisky. Too much of it is leaving our shores, never to be seen again. Let them drink bourbon. (American whiskey is vodka mixed with flat Pepsi)

It really annoyed me when I found cheaper Scottish single malt whisky in the Netherlands. They already had decriminalised cannabis!

There was a two month drought of decent, cheap Islay malt recently in Scotland. We endured. Just in the past week Lidl and Aldi have been restocking it for £16.49, a pound cheaper than it was, and only £2.49 dearer than the crappiest stuff.

Re: State Aid? Trump??!

Snake

Look, using Trump as a scapegoat, plus as a comparative to an idiot (the idiot gets the short end of the stick here) is getting a bit tired: we're (most Amerikuns) are trying to get rid of the damn fool as fast as we possibly can. But the incredibly entitled, selfish, worst part of America keeps wanting inbred fools like Trump, because they think it serves their purposes whilst they get destroyed by the very powers that they think they control.

If you could, promote a better world by helping us flush that jerk down the toilet like the piece of human waste that he so best represents. Please. We need every bit of help we can get - social constipation is a horrible thing.

Robert Grant

China, of course, appears to give an affirmative answer to that question, with state oil and gas firm Petrochina beating Apple to hit the golden $1 trillion in 2007

I'm not sure it's the state aid that got you there when you can just dig free money out of the ground.

The next U-Turn?

Version 1.0

No point in worrying about this, the Tories have got Brexit done so what's going to happen is a complete mystery now, they have been promising that the UK will profit from Brexit and the economy will boom - oh wait, they U-Turn on all their promises don't they? They have not promised yet that industrial and vehicle pollution will drop tremendously yet - I expect that will be the next promise on January 1st.

Re: The next U-Turn?

Anonymous Coward

actually that last one is plausible - both those things are fairly well correlated to economic output and that is likely to drop precipitously...

Well it's kind of a good idea but...

batfink

While I think that the idea of the state supporting the development of home-grown industries is a fine one in theory, I can see several objections:

1. How do we stop the money just going to Dom's mates/Tory donors/Boris's latest girlfriend?

2. How do we pick the winners?

3. This will kill any idea of a free trade deal with the EU as, well, they're pretty hot on making sure nobody gains an advantage from State Aid. I suspect the US won't like it either.

4. Shock! Horror! This is Socialism! How will we get that past (a) the Tory Party rump and (b) the rightwing press?

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

Anonymous Coward

This will kill any idea of a free trade deal with the EU as, well, they're pretty hot on making sure nobody gains an advantage from State Aid. I suspect the US won't like it either.

While both, meanwhile, give all the state aid they can under the table. Boeing, Airbus, etc.

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

Gonzo wizard

Absolutely, it's a bit like Aziraphale in Good Omens talking about Heaven's view of guns. "Evil in the wrong hands, but give weight to a moral argument in the right hands" (not quite word for word). Giving aid to your own is "encouraging innovation and growth" but when another government does so it is "stifling competition and providing an unfair competitive advantage". Go figure.

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

Glen 1

#1 is the key thing for me.

Never in my living memory have I known such a transparently corrupt shower of shit be in charge.

We have racist dog whistlers barking at the migrant boats crossing the channel like a little dog yapping at the postman. Meanwhile our "owners" are warming their feet on the open fire of taxpayer money.

Tens (hundreds?) of millions are siphoned off to the incumbent's friends and associates, PPE contracts going to party donors for equipment that had expired. To ferry companies without ships.

Lets not beat around the bush. This is unashamedly a cash grab. How much can they milk from us (oh, but not *their* friends) before the next election.

I hope I am proved wrong.

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

Anonymous Coward

They will milk it till the cow runneth dry. Then the 4th industrial revolution will back to the work houses but this time there won't be any Unions to fight for better pay and conditions because they basically own the press.

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

Dan 55

The answer to all of your questions is it's all about control.

The former Brexit secretary David Davis said: “I would be inclined to repudiate large parts of the withdrawal agreement, because they were agreed on the basis that there would be a trade deal.” He argued that should include ripping up the financial settlement if no trade deal is reached. But Davis questioned the prime minister’s chief aide Dominic Cummings’ focus on securing control over state aid, something No 10 is keen to use to build up the UK’s tech industry, calling it “intrinsically un-conservative”.

There's this industry, it's undoubtedly the future, but it's not under Cummings' thumb. He's a control freak and can't stand that. He needs to be able to shower the right people in the IT industry with money to get that control.

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

Smooth Newt

2. How do we pick the winners?

Simples. They are the ones that don't need state aid.

If you have an obvious winner, then you don't need state aid, because getting investment is easy.

It is only failing companies, like British Shipbuilders, British Leyland etc, or ones that provide a public service at below cost - like the BBC, public transport, NHS, public libraries etc - that need state aid.

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

sandman

Ah, so just about anything that starts with the word "British"!

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

Loyal Commenter

There's also the argument that certain industries have high start-up costs because they need massive infrastructure investments. Things such as large-scale manufacturing of commodities like steel, mining, bulk chemical refining and processing, stuff like that. Not anything IT-related, which at best needs data centres.

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

Jon 37

And even data centres are no longer needed, thanks to cloud computing. You can try your idea, with your computing costs scaling with your popularity. If it works, and you get big, then you can move to the cheaper option of buying your own servers and eventually buying your own datacenters.

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

Loyal Commenter

Well yes indeed. The places where investment would actually make a difference are the places where Thatcher pumped money into in the '80s (without falling foul of state aid rules might I add) - education in science and technology and tax breaks for tech start-ups. That got us ahead in the game before we decided to squander it in the '90s. Some of the same people who were in charge then still have influence in policy-making today.

Of course, to properly invest in tech, you need to properly invest in education, which means also properly tackling social inequality, so that the next generation of child-wonders aren't hamstrung by not having been sent to Eton. That sort of thing really does sound like socialism, and the Current Lot will have nothing to do with it.

Doomed to fail from the outset, and just more swill for the usual snouts at the trough...

Re: Well it's kind of a good idea but...

gnasher729

Don't worry about Boris' latest girlfriend. Even paying £100,000 to a pole dancer every day isn't even one pound per year per tax payer. Cummings is much more effect at destroying taxpayers' money.

Not State Aid but Offshoring and Money Laundering

Mage

Tories don't do State Aid, not really. UK doing about 1/2 the EU average. Most unlikely they really want to do any aid that would exceed EU rules, except they already had refused to implement Banking & Tax and Offshoring stuff even Switzerland has added to law. Particularly relating to IOM, Channel Is, Gibraltar and the transatlantic tax havens that are British Colonies, though renamed to Overseas Territories.

Typing error in the article

H in The Hague

“ Cummings Johnson - and we have to assume his boss Johnson

Cummings too"

Quote in the FT, from a No 10 insider:

"If you’d dropped in from Mars, you’d struggle to work out whether Cummings or Johnson was the prime minister"

https://www.ft.com/content/aa53173b-eb39-4055-b112-0001c1f6de1b

Re: Typing error in the article

Loyal Commenter

Ack! Ack ack ack! Pew pew pew!

Sorted.

No track record in the tech industry?

batfink

That's a bit unfair. He certainly seems to have a track record with Jennifer Arcuri....

ARM?

Woodnag

UK allowed Softbank (Japanese holding company) to buy ARM, so I'll take any statements about protection and generation of Great British Technology as propaganda pretending that Something is Being Done...

well maybe

vishal vashisht

IF they stopped shipping out jobs to India or any other cheap offshore location then Britain may have a tech industry in 50 years time.

Accenture, PWC, Serco, et al should be taxed a premium. Fine ship out the job BUT we're going to tax you the top up amount for EVERY employee. so if you THINK you're going to pay a £50k employee £10k in Eastern Europe or India, then we'll add £40k to your tax bill in a way that it can't be avoided.

Make it EXPENSIVE to outsource and offshore and you'll see tech jobs brought back here and we won't all be working in sweatshops making clothes for the Chinese by 2050

Re: well maybe

Glen 1

How do you tax a transaction happening in another country? Outside your jurisdiction, and ultimately none of your business?

You cant. What you *can* do is put taxes on the end result as it comes into the country. Which is paid for by *UK* businesses/consumers.

but moving a call centre to "Elbonia"? Where is the transaction the *UK* can tax? Any attempt to do so will result in reciprocal Taxes set up damaging our own industries.

At what point is it moving (what you perceive to be) a UK job abroad, and not *importing* a foreign job from elsewhere. Look at Japanese car companies massively pulling out of the UK. Are *those* UK jobs? Or are they *Japanese* jobs that the companies no longer wish to outsource?

What is good for the goose and all that.

Re: well maybe

Jimmy2Cows

Well, for instance they could add it to corporation tax. Costs saved by outsourcing, and not invested by employing in this country, could be made to count as profit - a profit attracting a higher rate than other pre-tax profits made in the UK.

Where there's a will and sime imagination, there's a way.

LucasNorth

I'm just happy that we are taking back control of our borders, our money and our women

Loyal Commenter

And our precious vital bodily fluids.

Remember kids, drink only rainwater and grain alcohol!

Vital!

chivo243

Gotta love that one!

LucasNorth

wow, I have been posting that all over the places for years and you are the only person who has ever got the Dr Strangelove reference! Most people think I am being serious hahaha

Loyal Commenter

...and that film was supposed to be a parody. Somebody had better tell Ripper Johnson.

The Chance Brothers pick technology winners. *

John Smith 19

Are you f**king kidding me?

The Classics & the Modern & Ancient History grads. WTF do they know about technology winners (other than telling targeted lies at the gullible through social media of course. Or rather finding someone to do it for them).

*Thin and Fat

Can't wait to see...

Anonymous Coward

Can't wait to see the results of us ploughing our massive budget surpluses* into subsidies for our future national champions.

...said every chum of senior Conservative Party members.

*This post may contain sarcasm

Re: Can't wait to see...

Warm Braw

There's not only the question of "picking the cronies winners", but also a problem of scale: Apple's market cap is around 70% of the UK's entire GDP...

Chris G

If the appointments of Martha Lane Fox and Dido Harding to IT positions of importance are examples of UK judgment in the IT industry, I hold out little hope thart no matter how many billions they throw out to their friends that any of it will result in a world class IT business.

The smarts and skills, I am sure exist in Britain but the chance of the right people getting the right support is par with a lottery win.

chances of a deal with the EU are beginning to ebb away

Anonymous Coward

ah, "chances of a deal", "beginning to ebb away", fine examples of those great British overstatements ("peace for our time", "a mild breeze up to 60 mph", etc.). There was NEVER a chance of a "deal", because we have ALWAYS insisted on a "deal" as in "We will have ALL we want and if you don't like it you can fuck off". So, the EU has fucked off and all they're doing now is making polite movements and conversations before getting up and leaving the table. As to Johnson and his pals, they'll be allright, non? Bitching all the time about how the EU has kicked us out, etc, etc. But hey, don't blame them, it's the will of the people so the people will keep paying for their choice.

Re: we'll have all we want and if you don't like it...

Jimmy2Cows

Come on. Both sides go into a negotiation wanting everything and giving away nothing. It's naive to think otherwise, especially at state-level.

Its stupid

codejunky

Governments trying to pick winners is just terrible. For example the EU funds toward the Greek railway project that will never be sustainable. Or the money thrown at Poland to make oversized airports for nothingtowns. Maybe we can get a right wing (or really a more libertarian) party to vote for after brexit has finally been done.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2007949/The-Big-Fat-Greek-Gravy-Train-A-special-investigation-EU-funded-culture-greed-tax-evasion-scandalous-waste.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-airports-specialreport/special-report-eu-funds-help-poland-build-ghost-airports-idUSKBN0JS06K20141214

Countries without trillion-dollar companies ... will be owned or coerced by those that do

Gonzo wizard

The idea that the government will effectively bankroll a trillion-dollar company begs many questions, the most pressing of them being...

1. What's the idea that the rest of the world has missed (or implemented badly) so far, and what makes you think it's the big one? The idea comes first, and even if the idea is to copy somebody else's idea but do it better, it still comes first. You don't magic a trillion dollar business into existence just by flashing your cash like the guys at We Buy Any Car.

2. How much access, and control, will unelected government lackeys have? I'd expect certain of them to have far too much influence at far too many levels for almost anybody's comfort (except their own, presumably) - and for that reason alone, any idea, even one with legs, won't fly. People with principles won't join or won't stay. People without them tend, in my experience, to be more blinkered - a major disadvantage when trying to build this unicorn of a company.

In short, even if this is true, it's a totally garbage idea that simply wastes more money that we don't have. All to stroke one unelected government lackey's ego.

Re: What's the idea that the rest of the world...

Mage

Success is partly having the money to start, marketing, hard work and luck.

Not actually ideas.

Intel didn't invent x64, AMD did. Or Transistors. They got lucky with the 8080 because CP/M (Digital Research). They started as a RAM maker.

Apple didn't invent the MP3 player (iTunes & Marketing) or the Smart phone (Data plans & Marketing).

MS didn't invent BASIC (Dartmouth College) or DOS (Digital Research) or Windows (Xerox) or C# (based on Java).

Hovercraft, Concorde, Inmos Transputer, First electronic Computer. Also UK developed their own independent atomic weapons and space flight. The only country to develop either and give them up. US persuaded them to rent / buy from them.

Maxwell, Faraday.

The rot started actually before Thatcher, but she accelerated it. Being ONLY Services based and a Nation of Shopkeepers is not sustainable for a former Empire now a small island Nation. A lot of Empire wealth was asset stripping and exploitation. Ask Indians, Africans, Caribbean, China, Australia and Ireland.

Re: What's the idea that the rest of the world...

Gonzo wizard

I think you've missed my point. Money is certainly required for an idea to be developed and to succeed, but it doesn't create the idea or pick an existing idea that has the potential to become the Next Big Thing. All the things you've mentioned - Hovercraft, Concorde, the Transputer, the first electronic computer - and all the products, were ideas that already existed that got funded to develop them. None of them came into being because somebody sat down one day with a massive pile of cash and thought "ooh, what shall I do with this then?"

People do that. People who have skin in the game, know what they are talking about, can explain why something will work, how something can be developed, and sell that concept both to the people with the money they need, and to the potential customer base. DC's not a fan of independent thinkers and will want to be involved in every detail, thereby guaranteeing failure.

Re: Countries without trillion-dollar companies ... will be owned or coerced by those that do

iron

You'd need an idea with wings to make it fly!

Re: Countries without trillion-dollar companies ... will be owned or coerced by those that do

Gonzo wizard

Maybe. Give it legs and see how far it can walk ;-)

National Past Time?

chivo243

Pissing good money away on Vapourware? gigity million for this, bong billion for that contract, which never gets fulfilled?

What Stinks

Anonymous Coward

and rhymes with 'Dung' ?

Laurel and Hardy

Fruit and Nutcase

Cummings and Johnson.

"That's another fine mess we've gotten the country into"

At least Stan and Ollie were good at making us laugh

Sigh

Andy 73

I can't see the point in trying to have a grown up conversation about how to improve innovation, research and business growth in the UK, when the mere mention of Brexit, Cummings or any current political party will bring all of the frothing loons out of the woodwork arguing that we can't/ won't/ shouldn't do whatever the other frothing loons insist we can/ will/ must do.

For what it's worth, if we are to replace initiatives like Horizon2020 and other research and innovation friendly schemes, we should do so with our local knowledge base, workforce and skill set in mind. On the whole I think such schemes are good, if rather heavy on procedure and documentation.

Equally, Cummings is a big fan of the idea of a UK equivalent of DARPA, funding 'moon shot' projects and encouraging emerging technologies. Again, I don't think it's a bad idea.

As a country, for various reasons, we are not very good at risk, early business growth and long term market ownership. However, we've got some very smart guys who drive real innovation and deliver engineering excellence that brings the whole world to our doorstep. That suggests that we should think carefully how we handle funding and finance.

Not going to happen though, because the political infighters will be too busy ripping each others' heads off.

<Davide> how bout a policy policing policy with a policy for changing the
police policing policy