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US election 2020: The disinfo operations have evolved, but so have state governments

(2020/08/26)


With the United States set to undertake its first Presidential election since the Russian-tinged 2016 race, state governments and social networks are upping their game.

This from the team at Cisco Talos, which cautioned in a [1]new report that while governments and sites are better prepared for disinformation campaigns, the way hostile nation states go about their business has also evolved.

Specifically, said the Talos team, influence campaigns have been outsourced from thinly veiled government operations to multi-level efforts that often use a middle level of marketing firms.

These firms, it is said, operate as digital marketing firms for the most part, but will also use their expertise on behalf of governments that want them to sway public opinion in an election. One such example was [2]AggregateIQ during Brexit.

Since 2016, those sort of companies have grown more numerous, and as a result are empowering more governments looking to interfere with other nations' elections. This is significant because it evens out the playing field.

Russia [3]may be well ahead of China and others, said Cisco Talos threat researcher Nick Biasini, but mercenary marketing firms can be the great equalizer.

"There are starting to be companies that specialize in it," Biasini told The Register .

"The ability of one country over another country is going to be muted by them being able to hire whoever they want."

This is not good news for the US in an election where both China and Russia are expected to use dirty tricks in hopes of swaying US public opinion their way.

There is, however, some good news. Talos also noted that the likes of [4]Twitter and [5]Facebook , two platforms that were vital to the 2016 disinformation efforts, have stepped up their games. Both platforms offer systems to report and label fake or misleading news stories and posts, and as a result pulling off the sort of widespread disinformation campaigns we saw in the last election will be extremely difficult.

Rather, the team said it believes attackers may instead rely more on psychological manipulation, linking more stories through fake news sites and focusing on specific groups and communities.

"Although it can be relatively easy to launch a basic disinformation campaign, the ability to do the efficacy and analysis to drive this at a large scale is really difficult to do," Biasini explained.

In the end, it will come down to whether the newly evolved protections in place are enough to withstand the more focused tactics of hostile countries and their private-sector mercenary manipulators.

"At the highest level we are far more aware, people are more aware of what disinformation is, and the states are actively involved," said Biasini.

"I definitely think that we are in better shape, but we won't really know what is going to happen until it happens." ®

Get our [6]Tech Resources



[1] https://blog.talosintelligence.com/2020/08/what-to-expect-electing-disinformation-building-blocks.html

[2] https://www.theregister.com/2018/09/24/uk_gdpr_notice_appeal/

[3] https://www.theregister.com/2020/08/06/china_russia_disinformation_black_hat/

[4] https://www.theregister.com/2018/03/08/humans_not_bots_spread_fake_news_on_twitter/

[5] https://www.theregister.com/2017/04/27/facebook_fake_news_security/

[6] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/

This isn't the real problem though

cynic56

Why are we so bothered about disinformation from foreign governments. Here in Blighty,almost all lies and disinformation come from our own government and their mates in the media.

Re: This isn't the real problem though

Version 1.0

The influence campaigning has been going on for a long time now - it's in the news because more people have started noticing it although the methods are getting deeper and darker. You can't say that British politics is influenced by foreign governments because there's no evidence of it, but it's clearly under the control of people who are being pushed in ways that will be seen in history as attacking the west. People are being influenced by people who are being influenced and profiting from other people who are being encouraged to move their policies in directions that are being manipulated to make them money paid by other companies controlled by governments protected by this multi-layer method of hiding influence.

It's the same environment that billionaires use to avoid paying taxes by "moving" their income to other companies that "pay" other companies controlled by "unrelated" companies that pay for the billionaires lifestyle.

Re: This isn't the real problem though

codejunky

@cynic56

Sounds like a similar situation in the US too. However after labour and democrats insulting their voters the idea now seems to be to blame external actors instead of directly calling the electorate stupid.

Re: This isn't the real problem though

Throatwarbler Mangrove

In fairness, the US electorate is not stupid: most of us voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and the blue wave of 2018 indicates that plenty of people realize that Republican governance is a contradiction in terms. Unfortunately, there is a powerful minority of US voters who are, if not stupid, proudly ignorant and misinformed and who also actively work against their own interests. The Republicans have taken the tack not of calling their opponents stupid but instead creating trigger words out of "liberal," "socialist," etc. You can watch this practice in effect when having what passes for a discussion with the average rank-and-file Republican or conservative wherein they throw out an accusation of socialism and expect that to be the end of the discussion, as though their interlocutor ought to immediately quail at the very thought. The end result is that more people are openly embracing socialism; unfortunately, the Republican/conservative rank and file are responding to accusations of being stupid by actually embracing ignorance, which is not good for anyone.

Re: This isn't the real problem though

Anonymous Coward

You just called almost half of the US electorate stupid. I think you should re-read codejunky's post more carefully and update your hymnbook.

Re: This isn't the real problem though

Throatwarbler Mangrove

I think you should learn to read English, but that would mean rejecting ignorance.

Re: This isn't the real problem though

Anonymous Coward

Oops, you did it again.

Re: This isn't the real problem though

codejunky

@Throatwarbler Mangrove

Sorry dude but that post does not shine you in a good light at all. It is the same condescending approach I saw the dems (Hillary) take last time and it doesnt work to insult those you want to vote for you.

I would argue that a vote for Trump is not necessarily ignorant nor stupid and the same for a vote for Hillary. They had their positives and negatives even if you have to hold your nose at their character.

Re: Misquotes and defective logic

Flocke Kroes

Elephants are grey. My car is grey. My car is an elephant.

Deplorables vote for Trump. You vote for Trump. You are deplorable.

Republicans are so good at misquoting they actually believe that Al Gore said he invented the internet.

Re: This isn't the real problem though

Throatwarbler Mangrove

Trump supporters aren't going to come out and vote for anyone else, so trying to appeal to them is wasted effort. The smart effort is geared towards getting people to vote who normally sit elections out (which, not coincidentally, is why the Republicans are engaged in an effort of unprecedented scope to suppress voting). Hillary Clinton's main disadvantage was that the right-wing corporate media had spent the better part of three decades slagging her off. The only thing I had to hold my nose at was the odor of bullshit coming off of Fox News (and other similarly partisan outlets) and the fact that Clinton was far too right-wing for my ideal taste.

What were Trump's positive qualities apart from not being a woman, Negro, or named Clinton?

Re: This isn't the real problem though

Smooth Newt

Why are we so bothered about disinformation from foreign governments. Here in Blighty,almost all lies and disinformation come from our own government and their mates in the media.

Because this sort of disinformation is proper high quality British disinformation lovingly crafted by skilled British workers, not the nasty second-rate foreign muck. It is disinformation that every Briton should be proud of.

Re: This isn't the real problem though

batfink

I believe you left out the term "world-beating"

almost all lies and disinformation come from ... their mates in the media.

Anonymous Coward

That is a very harsh comment to make about the Guardian!

Banjos. Get ready to be played one again like a hillbilly orchestra.

John Smith 19

Because that's what you are.

Ukuleles. George Formby played one.

Anonymous Coward

And he had a song about lamp posts.

I don't believe it

batfink

This is all fake news innit?

Re: I don't believe it

Anonymous Coward

Yes.

Re: I don't believe it

batfink

Damn. Now I have to work out whether THAT is fake news...

Scott Broukell

Social media can be so terribly both paralysing and polarising at the same time and the manner by which the vast majority of dumb f*ck sheeple flock to unquestioningly suck up everything that pops up therein is only going to lead to a narrowing of the middle way and a loss of tolerance / democracy.

So it appears that the majority of people are simply too poorly educated to apply reasoned judgement or keep an open mind to alternative arguments within the political realm, they just act like it is all a game show because that is the only mental level they are capable of achieving.

I am seriously beginning to consider welcoming AI-driven digital technocratic overlords to govern over us, which is not a position I had ever thought that I might one day espouse -(so long as any human interference in the functioning of such a system is utterly impossible perhaps).

Let's back up a bit

chivo243

The real problem is anyone who wants to be in politics shouldn't be allowed any where near it.

Re: Let's back up a lot

Flocke Kroes

The ancient Greeks worked out that democracy led to career politicians about bad as the ones we have today so they tried [1]sortition instead.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sortition

Oh DemocraSSy, so much money wasted in your name!

Kefik

"Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence."

See more in Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens at https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B/core-reader

Of course, in YOUR country, it's different. Right?

At best, elites might know better as not to waste that much money in trying to influence voters.

Except for nurturing the illusion that each vote counts.

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -- Bertrand Russell (1872 - 1970)

While there's life, there's hope.
-- Publius Terentius Afer (Terence)