Looking for a home off-world? Take your pick: Astroboffins estimate there are nearly 6bn Earth-likes in the Milky Way
- Reference: 1592398864
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/06/17/galaxy_earth_planets/
- Source link:
Astronomers from The University of British Columbia (UBC), Canada, arrived at that figure by combing through old data recorded by NASA's now-defunct Kepler space telescope. They studied 200,000 stars that were observed during the 10-year mission and split them down into different star types, focusing on F and K-type stars, but particularly G-type suns like our own.
Next, they checked if any of the stars supported any exoplanets and obtained measurements of their radii from data taken by the European Space Agency's Gaia spacecraft, which is still in operation. The radius of an exoplanet and its distance from its parent star provides a good indication of whether it's a hot, gassy object or a more temperate, rocky world.
The researchers were then able to combine both data sets to estimate how likely it was main-sequence stars like our Sun supported planets like our Earth and compared their results to a computer simulation. "My calculations place an upper limit of 0.18 Earth-like planets per G-type star," [1]said Michelle Kunimoto, co-author of the study [2]published in The Astrophysical Journal and a graduate student at UBC.
"Estimating how common different kinds of planets are around different stars can provide important constraints on planet formation and evolution theories, and help optimize future missions dedicated to finding exoplanets," she added.
Kunimoto and her co-author Jaymie Matthews, an astrophysics professor at UBC, extrapolated their estimation to cover the total number of G-type stars in the Milky Way. "Our Milky Way has as many as 400 billion stars, with 7 per cent of them being G-type. That means less than six billion stars may have Earth-like planets in our galaxy," said Matthews.
Essentially, they believe there is about one rocky planet with a radius between 0.75 to 1.5 times to that of Earth for every five or six G-type main sequence stars in the Milky Way. The latest number is in the middle of previous calculations that estimated that there were as few as 0.02 habitable worlds to as many as more than one Earth-like exoplanet around every Sun-like star.
Kunimoto explained that the latest calculation is based on better simulations than previous studies. "The methodology was only recently introduced in the context of exoplanet demographics, and was shown to provide more robust and accurate estimates than an alternative method which is very commonly used.
"I improved on the method by taking into account the fact that some planets in the catalogue may not actually be planets, but rather false alarms due to noise or systematics in the data. This has been ignored by almost every single exoplanet occurrence rate study in the past," she told The Register .
She compared the number of exoplanets generated in the computer simulation to a real catalogue of data to test her model. "If the simulation produced a close match, then the initial population was likely a good representation of the actual population of planets orbiting those stars."
G-type stars are more likely than other types to host planets capable of supporting life. They are pretty small and have a similar mass close to our Sun.
"An issue with looking at much larger, hotter stars is that any planets in the habitable zone will take far longer to orbit, making them much harder to find. Also, intelligent life likely needs billions of years to develop, and the larger the star, the shorter the lifetime.
"Meanwhile, smaller, cooler stars are much more common than G-type stars, live a longer time, and are fast becoming a popular focus of exoplanet habitability studies because it is easier to find planets in their habitable zones. But there are some complications: namely, planets in their habitable zones orbit so close to the stars that they will be bombarded by more radiation, and they may be tidally locked, where one side of the planet is always facing the star, meaning it is always hot while the other side is always cold.
"We can only speculate what that will mean for potential habitability. A nice thing about focusing on G-type stars is that we already know it is possible for them to host a habitable planet – that's us!" ®
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[1] https://science.ubc.ca/news/many-six-billion-earth-planets-our-galaxy-according-new-estimates
[2] https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/ab88b0
[3] https://go.theregister.com/tl/1956/-8476/the-service-mesh-era-architecting-securing-and-managing-microservices-with-istio?td=wptl1956
Re: "Getting to them is, however, quite another kettle of fish"
Before humanity knows we can life off world we should see if we can life on our moon that's quite close in case of a screw up.
Re: "Getting to them is, however, quite another kettle of fish"
You're saying that we shouldn't aim for the stars just yet. That's prudent advice, because they can get pretty warm and the houseplants might die if we tried to live on one.
Re: "Getting to them is, however, quite another kettle of fish"
So you're saying if we ignore science then we can do it, right?
If that's the case, the Government seem like the ones in the best position to get us there.
The real Goldilocks zone
At last, an exoplanet hunter who is steering clear of those myriad pesky red dwarves with their tight planetary orbits and harsh tidal locking.
Re: The real Goldilocks zone
Your comment is strangely arousing.
Nice science but...
I should point out that both Venus and Mars would be considered to be in the "habitable zone" around our own star.
TBF the authors probably had a bit more detail in the original publication, such as an actual definition of "earth-like", which I suspect was along the lines of "rocky planet with the possibility of liquid water". Fun to think about though.
Re: Venus and Mars
Venus certainly isn't. Antarctica, Sahara and our oceans are far more habitable than Mars, which realistically is no more habitable than the Moon. Basically a space station with gravity.
Re: Venus and Mars
I think it's been posited that we could potentially live in a particular part of Venus's atmosphere, in some sort of ridiculously high treehouses, if we were really bored and due to a budgeting error suddenly had an infinity of money to spend.
Down nearer the surface…well, I seem to recall that the Venera probes that managed to land were all fairly quickly crushed by the density of the atmosphere.
Re: Venus and Mars
I think it's been posited that we could potentially live in a particular part of Venus's atmosphere, in some sort of ridiculously high treehouses, if we were really bored and due to a budgeting error suddenly had an infinity of money to spend.
But that's old-fashioned capitalism and economic thinking. Central banks already discovered we have infinite money, just a finite amount of practical things to spend it on. In a post-scarcity future, we'd have a near infinite amount of resources, and different mediums of exchange. So instead of promising to pay the bearer of £1 err.. £1, it could be lifting 1lb of
Or, given the number of planets just in the Milky Way, everyone could be offered their own planet in exchange for their labor. Delivery not included, refer to travel & subsisdence schedule and royalty table to understand your earn-out.
But it's fun stuff that SF writers have addressed, amongst others. Like what has value in an interplanetary or interstellar economy, and what would be the exchange rate? Things that are currently scarce wouldn't be. Peter F Hamilton's Fallen Dragon has some interesting themes of value in a post-scarcity and post-FTL future.
Re: Venus and Mars
Mars has atmosphere of sorts, that can be processed. It even has water. I don't think it can be compared to the moon really.
Re: Venus and Mars
Gravity is so low on Mars as to make the comparison reasonable: human life on Mars is nothing but a fantasy.
Re: Venus and Mars
How about, Charlie Clark, Martian Life on Earth ? What are the chances? Be honest now?
Another fantasy for Fantastic Stealth?
Re: Venus and Mars
Neither Venus or Mars are 'habitable' you are correct. They both, however, lie in the habitable zone of our solar system. Which is, AIUI, defined as they get enough solar radiation to allow liquid water to exist on the planetary surface.
Their human habitability shows just how little that 'habitable zone' designation means. It's a lower bound - nothing more.
In theory
Let's not repeat the European exploitation of Americas, or Arabs in Africa moving south. Ethically would it be right to settle without an invite?
It's likely anywhere able to really support life would be teaming with life of its own. Likely the existing plants and animals would only be good for fats, sugars/carbohydrates and maybe protein. They'd likely lack suitable vitamins and amino acids. Even here not all plants or animals can sustain humans, you'd likely die just living on rabbit. Animals here also have differing needs of vitamins, amino acids and things that are toxic.
However, as C.S. Lewis remarked, perhaps the interstellar distances are a quarantine system. We have no evidence that any sort of interstellar travel other than a mostly coasting Generation ship is possible. We need to sort out our own problems here instead of exporting people and their associated shortcomings.
Interesting science.
One day our ancient radio waves will reach them! ;)
re: radio waves will reach them!
If you do the sums, you'll see that the likelihood of our radio waves being detectable even at the nearest star is slim to zero. They might detect our oxygen, water, CO2, nitrogen and industrial pollution via spectroscopic analysis. SETI using radio is pointless unless Aliens arrive at the edge of the Solar system.
Pretty cool science
I remember when they confirmed the first exoplanet (90s) which means I remember the time when it was unknown if planets like earth were very rare or even unique. I'm not even that old... now we not only take their existance for granted, we know they are pretty commonplace.
How drastically this particular field has evolved in only 20ish years is pretty amazing, many of you have children who are older, when one considers what a huge impact it has on our view of the universe.
Re: Pretty cool science
Me too! I remember the episode of Horizon from 1996 that dealt with it, "Planet hunters". I still have a digitised copy which I occasionally watch for nostalgic reasons, and it is amazing to see how far we have come.
At the time of that episode, they still had no idea how many planets there were out there, most stars they investigated seemed to have none. Finding the first ones (AFAIR, it was orbiting a pulsar), was a serious event, even though they had no hope of harbouring life.
Now it seems almost every star has some kind of exoplanet, we have so many we need machines to keep track of them, and keep finding more and more planets in existing data.
A Deep Dark Cloistered Secret ???????
Getting to them is, however, quite another kettle of fish
It helps immensely to be au fait in the Way of Transubstantiation.
If in doubt, just ask the truly devout in brothers and sisterhoods.
Ah, but
Ah, but how many of them have the pubs open on Sunday? Importance is in the detail.
The universe, and galaxies like our Milky Way are literally teaming with life, Even if only 1% of what they imply actually has sentient life, that's an awful lot still. We just havent found it yet, because let's be honest, humanity is probably the equivilant of a neanderthal in comparison to many other civilisations.
Call and ask for help
Maybe if a world that was never hit by an asteroid hears us then they will send a big spaceship to pick us up, probably piloted by a T-Rex (not Marc Bolan). Be careful though, it might only accept travelers who are chocolate coated to make a nice snack when they arrive on the new Earth-like world.
"Getting to them is, however, quite another kettle of fish"
Actually, getting to them will probably be the lesser of your worries unless you just want to commit suicide expensively. Ecosystems are complicated, and finding a niche is hard even on Earth where all life has fundamentally co-evolved. Hard in the sense that there are masses of failures, both at the species and the individual level. This will be all the more the case for an entirely alien species (us) on a distant planet with its own evolutionary history.
Even if the lovely fantasy of a perfect human-supporting habitat devoid of competitors were to be found, staying a live long enough to take advantage of it would be a serious challenge as adaptation takes generations to accomplish. Either way, we should expect more than half of the human settlers to die before they reproduce - probably vastly more than half, so we'd have to send huge populations of settlers with a known high probability of snuffing it as part of the deal.
Only on Star Trek are small human communities able to settle stably on alien planets, and that's just because the writers ignore the science.