Polymarket Volume Inflated by 'Artificial' Activity, Study Finds (bloomberg.com)
(Friday November 07, 2025 @05:25PM (msmash)
from the closer-look dept.)
An anonymous reader shares a report:
> The volume of activity on Polymarket, one of the most popular prediction markets, has been [1]significantly inflated by so-called wash trading in which users rapidly buy and sell the same contracts, according to a new study by Columbia University researchers. The "artificial trading," as the authors call it, varied over time but accounted for an average of 25% of all buying and selling on Polymarket over the past three years, the researchers concluded.
>
> The [2]paper , which has not undergone peer review, was posted Thursday on the open-access research platform SSRN. The authors do not suggest that Polymarket itself was responsible for the wash trading, but they point to elements of the exchange's crypto-based structure that make it possible.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-07/polymarket-volume-inflated-by-artificial-activity-study-finds
[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5714122
> The volume of activity on Polymarket, one of the most popular prediction markets, has been [1]significantly inflated by so-called wash trading in which users rapidly buy and sell the same contracts, according to a new study by Columbia University researchers. The "artificial trading," as the authors call it, varied over time but accounted for an average of 25% of all buying and selling on Polymarket over the past three years, the researchers concluded.
>
> The [2]paper , which has not undergone peer review, was posted Thursday on the open-access research platform SSRN. The authors do not suggest that Polymarket itself was responsible for the wash trading, but they point to elements of the exchange's crypto-based structure that make it possible.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-07/polymarket-volume-inflated-by-artificial-activity-study-finds
[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5714122