El Nino Bursts Through Temperature Record Months Before Peak
- Reference: 0185894720
- News link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/26/09/29/054253/el-nino-bursts-through-temperature-record-months-before-peak
- Source link:
> The [2]latest data shows the temperature rise at the heart of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has now reached 3.05C. That is higher than the 3.02C set in late November 2015, the previous high set in the 150 years of modern records. This temperature is measured against the average of 1991-2020. The [3]preferred measure of most meteorologists uses a 30-year rolling average as a reference and so takes account of human-caused global heating. This metric, called ONI (Nino3.4), is on the brink of breaking the record, just one-hundredth of a degree below the 2015 record. Both metrics are underpinned by data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
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> The most recent forecasts predict a peak of 4.0C in November and December, according to the average of 14 different models assessed by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. That is a level so far above previous events that Hausfather called it "mind-blowing," while others have described it as "Godzilla-level." Any temperature rise above 0.5C is deemed an El Nino; above 2C is officially called a "very strong" El Nino -- often referred to as a "super" El Nino. The current El Nino is likely to be the largest in at least 1,000 years and will pile extra heat into an atmosphere in which temperatures are already rising rapidly due to human-caused global heating. This double whammy means 2027 is expected to "blow apart" previous records and become the hottest year ever recorded.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/21/super-el-nino-temperature-record
[2] https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4
[3] https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#enso
4C (Score:2)
4C shows just how much extra heat from global warming the oceans have actually absorbed. If they hadn't we'd already probably have carboniferous era climate.
Re:4C (Score:5, Interesting)
Mostly I agree.. but that's because I remember how much energy is required to heat water.
In this case, I wondered; 4 degrees doesn't "sound" like a lot. Until one looks into the sheer volume of water involved...so I asked AI for some help....
Turns out, the critical El Niño tracking zone is about 1000x6000 km, 200 meters deep; so ~1.M cubic kilometers of water. (I asked; 970 billion acre-feet, or enough to cover the entire continental US to about a 486-foot depth)
The energy required to lift to the current level (about 1.5C through the depth of the water involved; 3C at the top today) is about 6.38 trillion Gigajoules... or about 1.5 trillion tonnes of TNT-equivalent energy.
In a more readable level; that's an energy amount on the approximate order of blowing up the entire nuclear arsenal of the planet, 300 times over.
Or, maybe better; there's "excess" energy in the El Nino event, roughtly equivalent right now to 10 years of the entire energy consumption of the entire human race, in all forms -- oil, coal, gas, nuclear, renewables, everything put together.
Just... absolutely staggering energy numbers.!
Re: (Score:2)
Big numbers scary!!
OTOH, if you look at things like solar irradiance, anthropogenic figures start looking like a zit on a gnat's ass.
Re: (Score:2)
I think those calculations are wrong, because they seem to assume that the heat is uniformly distributed, and that clearly isn't correct.
It's still pretty appalling, but I don't believe those numbers. (Coming up with more believable numbers, though, is beyond me. I couldn't even believe a number based on a gradient, and that's impossible anyway because there aren't enough measurements at the bottom.)
Re: (Score:2)
The calculations assume averages, so yeah, they're "uniform" in that sense.
But it is completely okay to use them, precisely because they are averaged over the volume of water in question.
Incidentally, the GP's numbers are way too low. The actual physics works out like this:
Q in TNT comes to approximately 9000 gigatons of TNT equivalent. The maths:
Q = c m dT = 4kJ/(kg K) * 1.7E18 (kg) * 4 (K) = 3.8E22 J
m = rho * V = rho * L W D = 1.025 * 1.65E = 1.7E18 kg
V = 1E7 x 1.5E6 x 100 = 1.65E15
Cheers,
Re: (Score:2)
Correct -- the AI did the math based on the average temperature reported for the water volume (~1.5C), not the topline 3C. I thnk you're at 4C here (dT=4 K)? Yes, that would be rather higher again!
Re: (Score:2)
Yes, I shamelessly plugged the high temperature.
It is pretty awful either way.
Re: (Score:2)
An interesting calculation.
And even when your results are off it remains scary.
Re: (Score:2)
> Just... absolutely staggering energy numbers.!
If you are interested in staggering some more: go check out how much power is channeled via the Gulf Stream, both in terms of heat transport and in shear kinetic energy. It's tens-to-hundreds of terawatts.
(It's tough to tease the Gulf Stream on its own from the larger [1]AMOC [wikipedia.org], which is on the order of one petawatt.)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation&oldid=1375356710
Re: (Score:3)
How is the "AI" going to help exactly?
For better models you need better algorithms and new discoveries aren't the domain of "AI".
The better algorithms are made of people's work and tears.
It's Only Natural (Score:4, Funny)
El niño se convierte en adulto.
They can't stay kids forever.
Who is this spic breaking records ?! (Score:2, Funny)
How have we dropped so far behind that the hispanics are breaking these historical records, not us ?!
Al Bundy should always finish ahead of "El Ninno", whoever he is.
Time to claim the records back for the YEWESSAY !
Make America Hot Again
Re: Who is this spic breaking records ?! (Score:2)
Whoosh.
If Only (Score:2)
If only we hadn't forced Trump to [1]call off [theguardian.com] [2]dismantling that ocean monitoring network [slashdot.org], none of this would have happened! I mean, if you don't bother to measure it, does it really happen?
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/18/ocean-monitoring-system-reversal-trump-administration
[2] https://news.slashdot.org/story/26/06/02/2336255/trump-administration-to-dismantle-ocean-monitoring-system
Re: (Score:2)
Who needs measurements? All you need is a sharpie.
El-nino (Score:2)
Really messed up the pacific but make the hurricane in the Atlantic didnt happen.
"Human-Caused", "Human-Caused", "Human-Caused"... (Score:4, Interesting)
I don't think the article mentioned "Human-Caused" enough times. Because if it did, maybe people would stop electing the same people who accept the same lobbyist bribes to never change the status quo, so old men in power can retire to yachts and island villas with their golden parachutes, while I drink my iced coffee with a paper straw.
Effects (Score:2)
Because the summary couldn't be bothered, here are some anticipated effects of a strong El Niño:
California (Central & Southern): High Flood and Storm Risk
The intensified subtropical jet steers frequent, moisture-rich atmospheric rivers directly into Central and Southern California.
Winter (December through March) will likely bring elevated risks of flash flooding, debris flows, and intense coastal storm surge/erosion driven by persistent sout
El niño (Score:2)
Is it so hard to put the right letter? n != ñ. It's not an accent, it's a whole different letter.
No hurricanes (Score:2)
...while climate change deniers will plaude the abscence of hurricanes in the north atlantic
Re:No hurricanes (Score:4, Informative)
Those who don't understand even the basics of a subject need to admit it and shut up until they learn something. The sand/dust off of Africa, combined with the shifting of the jet stream are the big reasons we have not seen organized tropical systems in the Atlantic this season, even while the ocean temperatures would normally cause whatever tropical systems to be more intense. The climate change deniers really should shut up at this point, because when even a small shark is seen in the floodwaters of a STREET in New Jersey after the nor'easter this past weekend, that should say that is strange enough stuff to make EVERYONE realize that things are changing, and not necessarily for the better.
Re:No hurricanes (Score:5, Interesting)
Or, we can just ask the fish in the Atlantic. They've been voting with their fins and moving farther north to escape the warmer waters. The fishermen also notice this because they must travel further to scoop them out of the sea.
Re: (Score:3)
A Quebec diver was attacked by a great white shark recently. C'est tres etrange.
Re:No hurricanes (Score:4, Insightful)
> Those who don't understand even the basics of a subject need to admit it and shut up until they learn something.
If they ever did that, this world would look different and be a lot more pleasant. But these idiots cannot help themselves.
Re: (Score:2)
What makes you think that a small shark in floodwaters is strange or proof of climate change? Is New Jersey far from the sea or something?
Re: (Score:2)
Floods that are supposed to happen once a century now happen with regular occurrence.
Re: (Score:3)
I guess this is your "jump the shark" moment
Re: (Score:2)
All hands on deck for the imminent flooding to be caused in SoCal by hurricane Polo. Baja was already flooding hours before the storm arrived, and the big cities down there are paved over and can't absorb anything, so it's practically 100% runoff in populated areas. Fingers crossed for it to be a lot better than I'd fear.
But I also live in Humboldt county now, this area is known for floods, and the city I live in is mostly a glorified sand bar in the Eel...
Re: (Score:2)
So we're gaining more rain forests and crop land? I'm no denier, but Some things might actually help us. And ignore California. They have seasonal droughts and seasonal wet seasons that make the news all of the time because a lot of people live there and a lot of people do stupid stuff like put bushes right up against their houses. They look nice until they cause your house to burn down.
Re: (Score:3)
I am not a climate scientist, but I don't believe shark behavior is mentioned anywhere in The Textbook.
Real experts have proven that wolves have to lie down with lambs for this to be an event of significance.
Re: (Score:2)
Or just ask Peter Thiel, according to him the anti-Christ should be along any day now. Hint Peter, look in the mirror, you don't have to wait. Oh, and the Apocalypse in the Bible was talking about Roman Empire, nothing further afield than that.
Re: (Score:1)
If the unstable empire fits...
Re: No hurricanes (Score:2)
Agree 100%. When talking about this recently, I follow Bill McGuire's suggestion and replace climate change with climate *breakdown*. It's happening much quicker than most people still realise. Most of us will be around for the deniers to realise they're wrong, but it won't help.
Re: (Score:2)
Fun fact, the Amazon rainforest depends on phosphorus from Saharan dust blown across the Atlantic. And with a severe El Nino like this year, next year will likely be a very dusty year.