Senators Demand Crackdown On Wildfire 'Prediction Markets' (arstechnica.com)
- Reference: 0184858486
- News link: https://yro.slashdot.org/story/26/08/05/0021220/senators-demand-crackdown-on-wildfire-prediction-markets
- Source link: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/08/senators-demand-crackdown-on-wildfire-prediction-markets/
> Several US senators have [1]written a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), inquiring about the agency's "plans to crack down on prediction markets" that [2]offer "contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires ." "Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities' suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit," [3]wrote (PDF) the group of senators, who represent Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. The document specifically cites that Polymarket [4]hosted bets in January 2025 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, and it mentions another website which specifically accepts "simulated bets" exclusively on California wildfires.
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> "There's also the heightened risk -- according to state and local fire officials -- that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful," the letter continues. "By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading." [...] Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana told Ars by email that the company does not allow such wildfire markets "because they create perverse incentives." But its primary rival, Polymarket, has taken a different approach. A spokesperson for Polymarket told Ars in an emailed statement that the company does not "profit from outcomes," adding that people "come to Polymarket for information." "While we are not blind to the risks, removing these markets does not prevent a tragedy but makes the most accurate information less accessible to the people who need it most," he wrote.
[1] https://www.merkley.senate.gov/merkley-padilla-shaheen-schiff-rosen-cortez-masto-heinrich-wyden-klobuchar-cftc-must-rein-in-wildfire-bets-on-prediction-markets/
[2] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/08/senators-demand-crackdown-on-wildfire-prediction-markets/
[3] https://www.merkley.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026.08.03-LTR-Wildfire-Prediction-Markets-FINAL.pdf
[4] https://polymarket.com/event/palisades-fire-burns-10000-acres-by-friday
California (Score:4, Insightful)
California should just make putting a bet on wildfires a crime equal to starting a wildfire.
Re: California (Score:2)
Indeed that will not help because criminality doesn't make people not commit an act, only allows us to punish them later, but you can't squeeze billions in fire damages out of the indigent.
Barring actually meeting people's needs, which the state can't do while simultaneously paying the bills shithole states can't cover, banning betting on wildfires is reasonable.
accessory to murder if some one dies may end it (Score:2)
accessory to murder if some one dies may end it.
individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.
So, similar to .. (Score:2)
> "There's also the heightened risk -- according to state and local fire officials -- that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful,"
... trading naked credit default swaps.
predators (Score:2)
How about prediction markets on rapes and muggings. Oh, they already exist thru personal insurance and security agencies. 'Course a "decent" person would never participate -- as a criminal facilitator -- but computer-coders well-known to have no-moral-compass except that scratch-an-itch tropism are primed for the lead. Nice work gents; do you predict chances of shoplifting in RUST , jewelry theft in Java-script while C is reserved for rape ? Murder ? That's so old-fashion ... I bet coder-b
Re: Bulshit solution looking for a problem (Score:3, Insightful)
Yeah, it is totally different from those other disasters. I can't place a Polymarket bet on there being a hurricane and then go out and cause a hurricane.
I can, on the other hand, place a bet on a wildfire and then go start one.
Re: (Score:2)
This isn't about gambling in general, or even the risk of arsonists making good on their bets.
This is about not making the geriatric scientophobic morons in charge of the country look bad. Their go-to response is always that disasters are unpredictable and there's nothing to be done for it. Meanwhile, the actual experts can all predict wildfire patterns pretty well.
Tough for the degenerates in congress to keep feigning ignorance if the experts are allowed to start raking in $$$ calling their bluff.