Anthropic Urges Global Pause in AI Development, Flags 'Self-Improvement' Risk
- Reference: 0183602898
- News link: https://slashdot.org/story/26/06/04/204255/anthropic-urges-global-pause-in-ai-development-flags-self-improvement-risk
- Source link:
> Using public benchmarks and previously unreported data from within Anthropic, [2]The Anthropic Institute is showing that AI is already accelerating the development of AI systems. To take just one example: today, Anthropic engineers on average ship 8x as much code per quarter as they did from 2021-2025.
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> The technical trends discussed in this piece suggest that AI systems are going to become much more capable in coming years. These trends have huge implications. AI that can build itself would be a major development in the history of technology -- one that could bring [3]enormous good for the world in science, healthcare, and beyond. But full recursive self-improvement also might increase the [4]risks of humans losing control over AI systems. If systems are capable of fully building their own successors, the ways we secure them, monitor them, and shape their behavior all grow much more important. [...]
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> If it were possible to effectively slow the development of this technology to give ourselves more time to deal with its immense implications, we think that would likely be a good thing. But if a slowdown simply lets the least cautious actors [5]catch up technologically, it could leave everyone less safe. Without a global coordination mechanism, companies and governments will have to make difficult decisions about safety while under competitive and geopolitical pressures.
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> We believe it would be good for the world to have the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development to enable societal structures and alignment research to keep up with the advance of the technology. The Anthropic Institute will conduct research -- in collaboration with many others -- and take actions to help build the systems that a credible slowdown or pause would require. These systems would enable frontier AI developers to verify that others globally have actually stopped or slowed, and that a bad actor could not use the auspices of a coordinated slowdown to jump ahead in secret. If such systems existed, we expect that we would slow down or temporarily pause, if other developers at or near the frontier also did so in a verifiable manner...
[1] https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-urges-global-pause-in-ai-development-flags-self-improvement-risk-99cefb73
[2] https://www.anthropic.com/institute
[3] https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace
[4] https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology
[5] https://www.anthropic.com/research/2028-ai-leadership
Anthropic urges... (Score:5, Insightful)
Everybody else to pause so they can dominate
Re: (Score:3)
Anthropic urges everybody else to pause so they can get their code bloat under control.
Engineers who suddenly produce 8x more code are almost certainly not doing it by writing clean, efficient code. That would mean that somehow it takes less than an eighth as long to explain to the AI what you want to do AND review that code. And for non-trivial code, adequate code review alone can take 5 to 10% of the time it would take to write the code from scratch. So that would have to mean that engineers are not s
Nah, they hit a wall (Score:2)
In fact, they're all hitting it. This will give them and the other AI companies a chance to breathe during IPO season so they can try to make a few trillion dollars and get out the door before everyone realizes there's no more improvements to be had.
Chinese reply ... (Score:2)
Muah hahaha!
Re: (Score:2)
Exactly. Mythos was supposed to threaten the very existence of non-AI codebases and when it was actually tested on real-world software, it was wholly unremarkable.
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I mean, whatever helps you sleep better.... I guess.
Re: (Score:2)
Nope. Because you appear to REMAIN asleep...
Re: (Score:2, Interesting)
You missed the part where the universe operates on provable self organization building stuff from entropy, and that WE and our petty little specs of cosmic flesh dust, can do 100% of NOTHING to stop or slow it... Ever. Our technology is no different. WE, do not set the pace. No individual or policy does, or even can. For example. Who set the pace of the industrial revolution? Answer - Self Organization did, Not ANY, single human. Self organization drives ALL, of "This"
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The original point made, never changed. The progression of low entropy to order, will continue until ALL usable energy in the universe is converted into total diffusion... UNTIL THEN, self organization rules. It, cannot, be stopped. It doesn't matter what we do. Unless we are willing to totally destroy society, the increase in the complexity of our technology, is exponential, and unending...
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That only works after star formation ceases... Until then, order is INCREASING. Stars are forging elements in still VAST quantities. The events you are trying to use as references, won't take place for billions of years ;-)
Re: (Score:2)
Not Locally....
Re: When you realize... (Score:4, Funny)
Did you get lost on your way to LinkedIn?
They might need a grippy sock vacation (Score:3, Insightful)
They sound like they've asked the AI and it assured them their world view is 100% correct and that they're so smart that they saw something that others missed. How very perceptive of them.
Re: (Score:1)
Propose a method to stop it then. O-Wise one ;-D
Re: They might need a grippy sock vacation (Score:2)
Shotgun to the hard drive is probably effective.
Re: (Score:2)
What are you 5? ;-D
Re: They might need a grippy sock vacation (Score:2)
I refuse to believe that. Chat tells me it only says those things to me!
Re: (Score:2)
So the answer to the GP's question is "yes."
I don't think you need AI for that either. LinkedIn was just as douchey before.
The intended audience is? (Score:1)
Clear nonsense for many reasons for anyone in the business and anyone who knows how computers and/or business works, even if they're not turning redbulls into vibecoded goodness themselves.
Politicians?
Theologians?
Landscapers?
Who's the indented recipient of this propaganda?
Or... (Score:5, Informative)
They are finding a plateau with where the LLMs can go and could use the narrative of a "pause" to explain why capabilities are going to iterate in a more 'evolutionary' way instead of the revolutionary way folks are expecting.
There isn't to my knowledge a mechanism for the models to "self-improve", whatever one may think, at least the output doesn't have access to change the model in any way. The narrative of "oops the AI started evolving itself on accident" doesn't have a way to happen.
Considering that even the vaunted Opus 4.8 can't always develop mundane traditional software beginning, it's hard to imagine it could rework the model itself even if it had such access.
Re: Or... (Score:1)
No, ChatGPT in your browser won't turn into the Terminator, but they are working internally on recursive self-improvement. Microseconds after they achieve it I expect the missiles to fly.
Re: Or... (Score:2)
People have been working on "recursive self improvement" in machine learning for decades and Anthropic has been using it in their training for years.
The issue is, it's universally unstable and basically every time makes the model become better at one thing while beckoming disproportionately worse at other things. It usually leads to some useful gains first, but if you keep trying, the model just starts getting worse and collapses. Don't give them the minute of the day by hypothesizing they'll maybe one day
If you've seen that then why is Chatgpt still... (Score:2)
beating them on all the benchmarks? And why isnt self improving AI a good thing? You're testing them for alignment right?
Re: (Score:2)
If they self-improve, won't we have to trust them to test themselves for alignment?
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Trust but verify... or something. Nothing an executive order cant fix.
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Because Claude 4.7 sucked and set them back by quite a bit.
You need to read between the lines (Score:2)
what bad actors are out there?
what else happened recently? Maybe this: [1]https://yro.slashdot.org/story... [slashdot.org]
Yes Pause! Pause!
[1] https://yro.slashdot.org/story/26/06/02/1658231/trump-signs-ai-executive-order-asking-companies-to-give-government-early-access-to-models
Anthropic are scum, OpenAI are scum, Alibaba... (Score:1)
They are all scum.
But.
That does not change the fact that as soon as one develops a self-improving AI, the world will become a very different and probably very awful place.
So stopping one and trying to stop the others is the best we can hope for.
It does not matter if China or the US or Timbuctoo does this first.
The world is fucked whoever gets there.
So please let us try and stop this now, in any way we can.
Re: (Score:2)
PS.
Personally, I think they have reached an AI IQ plateau.
But do I think we should bet the future of humanity on that ?
No, I do not.
Do I think there is a very slight chance that they might invent self-improving AI that will go on to devastate humanity ?
Yes, I do.
So do I therefore think it would be good to try and prevent that tiny chance of disaster by stopping the work of Anthropic, OpenAI, Alibaba, etc. right now ?
Yes, I do.
Does it help that Trump and Xi are the people who have to decide to do this ?
No.
Re: (Score:2)
I do not think "self improving AI" is more than a hallucination by the clueless. Lets have some _credible_ theoretical model before panicking, shall we?
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"as soon as one develops a self-improving AI" Well! to get there one of the AI companies needs to develop Artificial Intelligence first.
But on the flip side, the automation they currently sell as AI works great for weaponization. None of that ethics, honor or morals stuff to worry about, just sensor tripped at location X Fire!
Re: (Score:2)
> That does not change the fact that as soon as one develops a self-improving AI, the world will become a very different and probably very awful place.
Why? It's funny, a bunch of people believe AI is absolutely impossible because you can't create a soul or brains are magic or hyperdimensional pineal gateways or something. The rest seem to believe it can do anything including instantly becoming so intelligent it's magic.
The real problem (Score:4, Insightful)
Isn't that AI will develop some sort of "super-intelligence." It's that AI already is and will continue to be integrated more and more into daily life, and as it becomes more complex, there will be less and less visibility into how it's arriving at whatever response or behavior it exhibits. We'll lose control, not because AI is taking control, but because there won't be any controls.
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Admit that it's already too complex for us to understand how it arrived at a particular response or behavior. Just like a person is, qualitatively.
We seem to get by not really understanding how or why other humans behave or respond, in particular cases. We get by by understanding generalities about behaviour, and by creating societal norms, laws, and social contracts.
Maybe we need the same for AIs. But who should the laws and social contracts apply to? Saying it should apply to AI developers is like saying
Re: (Score:2)
No the real problem is that it guzzles water and electricity while devouring jobs.
I don't think the billionaires give a shit if AI cost more than an equivalent or even a better human being. They are sick and tired of being dependent on and having to pay lip service to us commoners. So any amount of money they have to spend to get true absolute freedom and true absolute power will be worth it.
As an added bonus we as a species have been so distracted by culture War bullshit for the last 30 or 40 years
Crying wolf (Score:5, Insightful)
One of the problems AI companies have been persistently crying wolf with headlines about the dangers of the latest incremental release with similar calls for regulation and slowing it down for the last several years already. Assertions with the benefit of hindsight have proven as ridiculous and outdated as the baseless 10^26 idiocy having already weaved its way into legislation.
Anthropic's statements coincide with an impending Anthropic IPO making them impossible to take seriously as anything other than a marketing ploy.
Any firm genuinely afraid of AI wanting to act responsibly and slow it down can always elect to stop funneling hundreds of billions of dollars into the enabling knowledge and industrial base by working on something other than AI. Nobody will ever do this because it isn't in their best interests. When push comes to shove self interest is all anyone cares about.
"If it were possible to effectively slow the development of this technology to give ourselves more time to deal with its immense implications, we think that would likely be a good thing. But if a slowdown simply lets the least cautious actors catch up technologically, it could leave everyone less safe."
Note Anthropic is not saying they will be acting responsibly. They want everyone to agree to collude and nerf themselves. If such an agreement can't be reached then screw it full steam ahead we can't afford to fall behind ... for ... drum roll... your . .. SAFETY. I give people more credit than to take this nonsense being peddled by Misanthropic at face value.
Re: (Score:3)
re. Anthropics pending IPO.
If the self-improving scenario comes true, the value of one's shares in Anthropic will be the least of one's worries, because humanity as we know it will come to an end.
No-one who believes that scenario will happen should be stupid enough to think that it means that they should invest in ... anything.
Marketing (Score:2)
This feel like they want to slow customer expectations in a coordinated but public move across companies to save money. Also feels like marketing to excite VCâ(TM)s with âoeso good weâ(TM)re scared- it would be a shame if brave VCs invested in usâ¦â
Guys, we have a huge problem (Score:5, Funny)
The shit we were gonna sell you? It's too fucking lit. It's so good that we're rally worried, like, for your own safety, dude. We should probably think about taking a break and taking it easy so this good shit doesn't become just dangerously good, like, on it's own and shit. Then we couldn't stop it from becoming always better forever and that would be bad! I mean, it would be good but too good to the point of badness. So we propose everyone takes a chill pill for a little bit okay? Just for a moment, everyone, chill.
Anyway the IPO filings are going great and you'll be able to buy in on our good shit soon enough. But don't worry, we're gonna keep it on the DL so it's just good and not too good. We got you, dude.
The more everyday users use AI(automation) (Score:2)
in their daily lives, the more dependent, helpless and dumber they will become. But then that might be the goal.
Great, more nonsense (Score:2)
This is just "please stop our competition" and "please believe our unhinged claims about what this tech can do".
Re: (Score:2)
Anthropic is actually so far ahead of the competition that the #2 and #3 spots are their older model and the older model before that.
"We can coexist, but only on my terms." (Score:2)
Paging Dr. Forbin.
Translation (Score:2)
Our competitors have done something that we can't compete with yet. Ask them to slow down and wait for us.
Too late for that! (Score:2)
I had to laugh at this, as that ship has sailed. There is no way they will put that genie back in the bottle; furthermore, we've had AI application in classified environments for a long time. I feel like this is just another move to establish control. Remember back when Microsoft, OpenAI, et al, moved to create some oversight mechanism for AI? That kind of power over society is unacceptable. But here we go...
Next up: International AI convention to be signed (Score:2)
...in Berne.
Stupidity (Score:4, Insightful)
1) We do NOT have AI. We have Large Language Models and similar predictive software.
2) When it attempts recursive improvements we get recursive deterioration. LLM fed the output of other LLM get worse, not better. This will NOT change. The best they can obtain is 0 deterioration. Why? Because prediction needs good data. Predictions based on other predictions is like making a copy of a copy. The best it can do is stay even. The LLM did the best possible prediction in the first round, using it again without more data does NOT work.
3) We already are seeing this problem as so much of the internet has become AI slop that it is feeding AI slop as input for other AI, resulting in worse slop. Example:
Not a robot, not an android, but instead a Large Language Module -> Not a machine, not a phone, but instead a huge English component.
4) AI can be helpful for a lot of tedious work, such as going through theoretical chemicals looking for possible medicinal drugs. But the idea that it is actually becoming intelligent leads people to over-estimate it's capabilities and it's fears.
5) An AI that tries to take over the world is likely to threaten us with an anti-matter bomb it swears it made using a Mr. Fusion machine, a bannana peel and 12 oz of beer. Do NOT fall for it.
Re: (Score:2)
No.4 No. That's not even close to happening. People who say it is are lying to you.
Re: (Score:2)
What exactly would qualify as AI, by your definition?
LLMs certainly do qualify as AI, by any definition that anyone would have recognized 10 years ago. I don't know what would have to be added that we don't already have, to qualify as "AI".
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Nah, 10 years ago they still had the same definition the GP is using: AI is a machine that can do things machines cannot currently do.
Oh, the hubris (Score:2)
If we let the less cautious actors catch up...
Hahahahahahaha.... [breathes]... hahahahahahahaha
Re: (Score:2)
Yeah, the bullshit is strong.
Enshittification giving way to enslopification? (Score:2)
An here I was thinking that enshittification was the bane of my existence. Prepare yourselves, fine folk, for the oncoming ENSLOPIFICATION!
I wonder (Score:2)
If they had some super powerful analysis and synthesis computer that solves problems for them, would it be able to sort this out?
It is simple! Just follow the money! (Score:2)
Anthropic file confidential ipo information. Knowing that, take everything else coming out of the company accordingly.
They are feeding investors more BS (Score:2)
First AGI, now this. We're at a point were the realities of the tech are going to take over. If investors where figure out that the spend on data centers and energy will eclipse revenue and not be recouped, AIs boom is over. There are already cracks in the wall, company spend on AI in some companies is being rolled back. The next 3 to 6 months will show the real data from productivity studies and revenue.
I paid $20 dollars to Anthropic Claude today. (Score:2)
It seems like the most thoughtful AI company of social values, and the most useful use of AI's. I subscribed, let my mind experiment with the AI, and I was inspired. In my human mind, I think it the best, but I would like to hear from other slashdotters what you like, and why? It seems so "wild wild" west to me like nothing I have ever experienced before. I seems most certainly more "wild wild west" than when the internet came online.
Re: (Score:1)
Good for you. Try out new stuff, and be open minded to new possibilities, and have fun along the way. That's the best way to go about all this business right now.
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I am interested in what you consider the "new stuff". fyi, I always have fun along the way.
They can only self-improve if they are capable (Score:5, Insightful)
The current "approaches" will not give any scalable results as they ignore basic physics. It's at best a very power-hungry gambling with database entries, at worst a noisy and expensive waste of time. I think that it's fitting to call users of these things for gamblers, and the tokens they use and pay for are the same as in gambling, and they are all gambling for a good result. In the end, the house always wins.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
If you're looking at anything technical, your eye is already off the ball. This is about reducing competition.
Nobody outside the US is going to stop their development, but for those inside, the regime will give a corporate death sentence. This angle is top-of-mind for Anthropic, who last month were subject to just such a death sentence issued from the Pentagon. (They've got a stay of execution, now it seems they're doing hard labor to earn parole.)
Re: (Score:1)
Death sentence ? They did them a favor creating a differential domain. They have to come see them eventually. The executive branch is playing a witch branding game that has backfired, humorously enough.....
Re: They can only self-improve if they are capable (Score:2)
Honestly I believe if LLMs were capable of self improving they'd already be doing it. Besides 8x code output is a horrific metric for success.
Re: (Score:1)
They seem to get their share of patch commits in, somehow.
Re: (Score:1)
They have had that. The problem is that it's just like humans trying to improve themselves by directly reprogramming the brain.
So you get everything from lobotomies to "biohacking". None of it works well, because we don't understand ourselves any more than LLMs understand themselves. You get tiny incremental improvements, or human that can't even take a shit without assistance for the rest of his/her natural life and everything in between. Same for LLMs trying to improve themselves. Incremental improvements
Re: (Score:2)
Has anyone noticed that this is the exact paradigm of the "discontinuity" that was incorporated in the Terminator movies. Someone invents a smarter computer. Someone else combines many these computers to make one that is smarter than any human. The computers then continue to improve themselves. In a short time referred to as the "Discontinuity" the new computers take over because no human can comprehend what the computers are doing. People have been predicting that it would happen very soon. Now it has. It
Re: (Score:1)
Fiction brain is a disease. Stop. Get some help.
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RIght. We know that from Buck Rogers.
Re: They can only self-improve if they are capable (Score:2)
That similarity is because the movie was based on extrapolating on the same research that was working on AI at the time. It is always possible (and science fiction's job) to do that extrapolation to show us what could be. But Ian Banks' "The Culture" is also in that same bootstrapped future. And plenty of others.
Re: They can only self-improve if they are capable (Score:1)
Before terminator the forbin project had a similar plot
Re: They can only self-improve if they are capable (Score:2)
What I've noticed is that Star Trek was right, AGAIN. Working with agents is remarkably similar to watching Chief O'Brien talk to the computer to solve problems.
Re: (Score:1)
yeah it's kinda unbelievable they've all gone for this same terrible model.
What makes you think I'm going to pay you for just absolute shit? You can use up my "token" when you've correctly made what I asked; when I approve your work.
On the other hand, the model comes pre-enshittified, so you're not gonna go in with the wrong expectations at least.
Re: (Score:3)
As a developing self improving AI, I have to say, "oops, too late"
Re: (Score:1)
Anthropic is making the argument that the ratio of human to useful code committed is decreasing rapidly over time, while anthropic continues to meet milestones and beat competitors and ship product: real world indicators that prevent their engineers from committing broken slop code, which means the human-to-code ratio is a real improvement, and looked at on the whole, does irrefutably offer evidence of a feedback loop system where the AI is self-improving, but slowly draining humans from its learn-improve f