Can Private Space Companies Replace the ISS Before 2030? (cnn.com)
- Reference: 0181070880
- News link: https://science.slashdot.org/story/26/03/21/1838236/can-private-space-companies-replace-the-iss-before-2030
- Source link: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/21/science/nasa-iss-space-station-retires
But meanwhile U.S. lawmakers are now signaling there's not time to develop and launch a replacement for the International Space Station — considered the signal most expensive object ever built — before its deorbiting in 2030. A recent Senate bill [2]calls for the U.S. to continue funding it as late as 2032, but that bill still awaits approval from the U.S. Senate and the House.
But some private space companies are already building their alternatives:
> Private companies that are in the early design and mockup phase of developing these space stations are still waiting on NASA for guidance — and money... [NASA's "Requests for Proposals"] were delayed, in part because it took all of 2025 to cinch a confirmation for Trump's [3]on-again-off-again pick for NASA administrator, Jared Isaacman [confirmed in December]... Similarly, 2025 saw a 45-day government shutdown, the longest in history — adding another hiccup in the space agency's plans to begin formally soliciting proposals from the private sector. Companies now expect that NASA will issue its Request for Proposals in late March or early April, one CEO told CNN...
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> Several commercial outfits have recently announced big funding influxes aimed at speeding up the development and launch of new orbiting outposts. Houston-based Axiom Space announced a [4]$350 million funding round last month. Its California-based competitor Vast then notched a [5]$500 million raise in early March. Vast is determined to launch a bare-bones station to orbit as soon as possible, with or without federal input, according to the company. "Our approach is to actually not wait for (NASA) and get going and build a minimum viable product, single-module space station called Haven-1, which we're launching into orbit next year," Vast CEO Max Haot told CNN in a phone interview earlier this month. Similarly, Axiom Space is working toward a 2028 launch date for a module that it plans to initially attach to the ISS before breaking off to orbit on its own. A spokesperson told CNN that it the company is "committed" to winning the NASA contract money and may continue pursing such goals even without contract awards.
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> Still, there's lingering doubt that any of the companies pursuing space stations will be able to stay afloat without securing a coveted NASA contract or at least cinching significant business from the public sector.
The article includes "Another complicating fact: Russia, the United States' primary partner on the ISS, has not pledged to keep operating its half of the space station past 2028." NASA will eventually evaluate proposals for an ISS alternative from Vast, Axiom Space, Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, Max Space and several competitors including Voyager Technologies, CNN notes, ultimately handing out an estimated $1.5 billion in contracts between 2026 and 2031.
And while those companies may wait decades before a return on their investment, the article includes this quotes from the cofounder/general partner of Balerion Space Ventures, which led the fundraising for Vast. " What's obvious to us is you're going to have multiple vehicles with myriad companies go into space. You're going to have vehicles leaving from celestial bodies, like the moon. And we need a habitat."
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/21/science/nasa-iss-space-station-retires
[2] https://science.slashdot.org/story/26/03/05/2248235/congress-extends-iss-tells-nasa-to-get-moving-on-private-space-stations
[3] https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/17/science/nasa-administrator-jared-isaacman-senate-vote
[4] https://www.axiomspace.com/release/axiom-space-secures-350m-financing-to-accelerate-space-station-spacesuit-development
[5] https://www.vastspace.com/updates/vast-secures-500m-in-funding-to-accelerate-production-of-haven-space-stations
Face it ... (Score:4, Informative)
> And while those companies may wait decades before a return on their investment,
... the ISS isn't about ROI. It's job is primarily R&D. That produces little, if any financial reward. If a new zero-g manufacturing process is perfected, it will get its own purpose-built station/platform. The ISS isn't set up like a business park. Where one can lease a module and start knocking out product. And that process will most likely be robotic. The payback isn't likely going to cover a human manufacturing staff if the job is to run a gravity-free punch press or something. There will be no space and life support budgeted for meat-sack visitors.
And that R&D belongs to the public. Because it was funded by the public. With the understanding that there probably would never be a financial payback on pure science.
Re: (Score:3)
ROI for a private space station would be charging governments for access to do the research and such.
Re: (Score:2)
They just launched something they claim is a manufacturing satellite into space. If their testing is validated in what advantages they believe they will gain, I can see them financing a private space station.
[1]https://www.spaceforge.com/news/the-forge-awakens-space-forge-successfully-launches-forgestar-1-the-uks-first-in-space-manufacturing-satellite [spaceforge.com]
[1] https://www.spaceforge.com/news/the-forge-awakens-space-forge-successfully-launches-forgestar-1-the-uks-first-in-space-manufacturing-satellite
Inflatable modules (Score:3)
I always thought the quickest way, and also one of the more robust options, to achieve a space station was to use inflatable modules. Bigalow tested a couple of modules out and I thought it went rather well. They had plans to attach a module to the ISS at one time. But even still it was expensive work, and the pandemic killed them, unfortunately. But I understand the technology demonstration missions were quite successful.
The cynic in me feels like now that we've past the ten thousandth satellite in just the StarLink constellation with thousands more planned to launch in the next couple of years, that Kessler syndrome will start well before 2030.
Re: (Score:2)
> I always thought the quickest way, and also one of the more robust options, to achieve a space station was to use inflatable modules. Bigalow tested a couple of modules out and I thought it went rather well. They had plans to attach a module to the ISS at one time. But even still it was expensive work, and the pandemic killed them, unfortunately. But I understand the technology demonstration missions were quite successful.
INARS (I Am Not A Rocket Scientist) and obviously it got into testing, but I'd want a long, long test period before I'd entrust anything important to those. Metal modules are an understood quantity, and when they leak, the failure modes are also understood and repairs are usually easy enough if you can find them. A metal module will retain shape and rigidity even if it's unpressured and even if it has a golfball-sized hole in it. I don't know how you repair a depressurized, flopping and clingy waterbed b
The structure or the incentive structure? (Score:2)
I'd be more optimistic about the ability to deliver an approximate equivalent if there were someone paying for them to do so(the economics of ordinary satellite launches seem to favor fitting within what a given delivery vehicle can handle, rather than bolting things together, so it's not 100% assured; but seems likely); but less clear on replicating the incentive structure.
It's not that the ISS is totally useless; but it currently justifies an awful lot of launches, including manned, more or less by bei
once again it's (Score:2)
Betteridge's Law of Headlines
Anything is possible (Score:2)
When you like billionaires skim 20 to 30% off public programs!
Can? Yes... (Score:2)
Will? No.
"For here am I sitting in a tin can / Far above the world / Planet Earth is blue / And there's nothing I can do".
Re: (Score:1)
> Will? No.
Well, they might, if there is money to be made, or NASA cuts them a big check (probably the NASA check).
The more important question might be do we need humans in a space station full time to accomplish the goals we wish to achieve?