EVs Could Be Cheaper To Own Than Gas Cars in Africa by 2040 (technologyreview.com)
- Reference: 0180771358
- News link: https://tech.slashdot.org/story/26/02/11/176205/evs-could-be-cheaper-to-own-than-gas-cars-in-africa-by-2040
- Source link: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/02/11/1132714/evs-africa-cost/
The analysis considered total cost of ownership including sticker price, financing and fuel or charging costs, but excluded policy-related factors like taxes and subsidies. Electric two-wheelers could reach cost parity even sooner, by the end of the decade, thanks to smaller battery packs.
Small cars remain the toughest segment. The biggest obstacle is financing: in some African countries, political instability and economic uncertainty push borrowing costs so high that interest on an EV loan can exceed the vehicle's purchase price. South Africa, Mauritius and Botswana are already near the financing conditions needed for cost parity; countries like Sudan and Ghana would need drastic cuts.
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-025-01955-x
[2] https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/02/11/1132714/evs-africa-cost/
Big caveats (Score:3)
The study has huge caveats:
It is assumed that BEV costs are essentially equivalent to ICE costs. Part of this comes from an assumption that all cars of any type are only leased. However, even with that assumption, this equivalence assumption is certainly not true now and remains to be seen whether it will be true in the future.
It is assumed that the solar-battery home installation is completely free. This is a huge cost that is completely absent from the analysis.
The solar-battery home installation necessarily assumes that the car owner has a home where the car can be parked and where the solar-battery equipment can be located, which restricts car owners to fairly rich people.
Learn how to read before commenting (Score:2)
> It is assumed that the solar-battery home installation is completely free. This is a huge cost that is completely absent from the analysis.
This statement is completely false. The article actually goes into great detail on the costs of the solar-off-grid (SOG) charging system and includes SOG costs in the total cost of ownership calculations.
"The SOG CAPEX consists of four hard-cost components, the solar PV panel, inverter, stationary lithium-ion battery and balance of system (BOS), and one soft-cos
Re: (Score:2)
> This statement is completely false. The article actually goes into great detail on the costs of the solar-off-grid (SOG) charging system and includes SOG costs in the total cost of ownership calculations.
And regardless of BEV usage, SOG (or mini-grids) is poised to rapidly expand in Africa (bringing reliable power to remote communities). If you build it, they will come?
Non-Electric Vehicles (Score:2)
This reminds me of an article I read about non-electric can openers. [1]https://h2g2.com/edited_entry/... [h2g2.com]
Just in case a hurricane, tornado, or nuclear war does ever leave you in need of some serious manual can-opening, it wouldn't hurt to know how to use one.
[1] https://h2g2.com/edited_entry/A256871
Re: (Score:2)
This makes my head hurt. I've never even heard of electric can openers. The linked can opener is a very advanced non-electric one. I mean, people should know how to use a pocket-knife can-opener.
And if you don't have that, a knife will do - as long as it's not a nice, sharp knife that you value.
"By 2040" (Score:2)
The timescale make this a "who cares" story. I will be surprised if it takes that long.
Re: (Score:2)
Yes. Considering how long people normally own a given vehicle, the take-away almost seems to be "make your next car purchase an ICE because electric wont be cheaper until after you get rid of that one at least".
the cheapest option for 2040 (Score:3)
The cheapest option will be to buy a US college graduation's student loan and have him pull a rickshaw until he pays you back.
Road conditions (Score:3)
I'm curious how road conditions will affect this. EVs are generally far heavier than their combustion-powered counterparts, and road conditions can play hell on cars that are heavy.
On top of that if charging infrastructure is slow to be built-out or if it's more easily damaged in conflicts, it may be hard to get drivers off of gasoline as a fuel that only requires a jug and a funnel to refuel with out in rural areas.
Re: (Score:2)
> I'm curious how road conditions will affect this....
You are right to wonder, as most current EVs one is likely to be familiar with are designed with paved roads in mind. However, there has been a number of EVs specifically designed for the unpaved roads in some parts of Africa, beginning with local OEMs, but China manufacturers are starting to enter the market too. You are not likely to see those EVs outside of places like Africa, at least initially (they tend to be more utilitarian in looks and features than customers elsewhere want to buy).
Seriously? 2040 (Score:2)
That's 15 years from now. Anything the hell can happen by 2040 .. maybe in 2040 the great Ijigwabogajooga will rise up from the giant pit of rhinoceros shit? Why do people make stupid ass predictions?
I'm sure they'll be of so much use (Score:2)
on a 2.5C and rising planet.
Re: (Score:2)
"Scientists thought they understood global warming. Then the past three years happened."
[1]https://www.washingtonpost.com... [washingtonpost.com]
Yes, we are fucked in the ass. The worst case scenarios are likely if not optimistic.
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2026/climate-change-temperature-rate-accelerating/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f011