News: 0180688990

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Why Private Equity Is Suddenly Awash With Zombie Firms (forbes.com)

(Thursday January 29, 2026 @05:40PM (msmash) from the bad-trade dept.)


The private equity industry is experiencing [1]a quiet reckoning as hundreds of midsize firms find themselves trapped between investors who have lost patience and portfolios of companies they cannot sell at acceptable prices.

"There is existential risk for a number [of funds] because of the fundraising environment," said Sunaina Sinha Haldea, global head of private capital advisory at Raymond James. "If existing investors don't come and support them, new investors are highly unlikely to."

According to data from Preqin, the average buyout fund that closed in 2025 spent 23 months fundraising, up from 16 months in 2021, and the total number of funds raised fell to 1,191 from 2,679 over the same period. New York's Vestar Capital scrapped plans for its eighth fund in late 2024 and has not invested in a new portfolio company since 2023. The firm's assets under management dropped from $7 billion fifteen years ago to $3.3 billion in 2024.

Three-year annualized returns through June 2025 for the Cambridge Associates U.S. Private Equity Index stand at 7.4%, trailing the MSCI World stock index by 11 percentage points annually. The average holding period for buyout deals has stretched to 6.3 years from 5.1 years in 2020. Blue-chip megafunds continue raising capital normally, but smaller firms face existential pressure.



[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/hanktucker/2026/01/29/why-private-equity-is-suddenly-awash-with-zombie-firms/



No sobbing here. (Score:5, Insightful)

by Mspangler ( 770054 )

They should have invested in extremely small violins.

The gambling/looting operations will not be missed.

Re: (Score:2)

by Whateverthisis ( 7004192 )

I understand where you're coming from, but you'll be signing a different tune when your employer and/or client terminates you. While we may all hate P/E for fairly valid reasons, they also buy companies injecting capital back to founders and VCs, and either merge companies or tear them apart (not great) and take them IPO or sell them to larger firms. We hate them for when this goes south and people lose their jobs or what have you, but this turnaround of capital creates the next round of capital that supp

Ransom note: GoT MiLk? (Score:3)

by Pseudonymous Powers ( 4097097 )

I'm not Captain Bizguy or anything, so I won't get the words right here. But investing in companies, like buying parts of them so that you can charge them, like, interest (?) never seemed to make much sense to me. Don't 99.5% of businesses fail within 10 years? I don't think I would buy a cow if the only possible outcomes were either (1) it takes three cow-lifetimes to make back my money selling the milk, or (2) I could milk it to death in a year.

Re: (Score:1)

by memory_register ( 6248354 )

> Don't 99.5% of businesses fail within 10 years?

Private equity invests in the already profitable / nearly profitable companies that can be worth a lot more if they scale. Think of things like Liquid Death (the water company) that is currently raising PE money to get into every grocery store. Their business is profitable so a lot of the risk is gone; at this stage, the failure rate is really low, because most of the work is done. [1]https://dtcnews.substack.com/p... [substack.com]

The problem is that more companies are staying away from PE money because their incentives are

[1] https://dtcnews.substack.com/p/liquid-death-looks-to-raise-20m-to

Re: (Score:2)

by dgatwood ( 11270 )

> The problem is that more companies are staying away from PE money because their incentives aren't aligned. Maybe you build a really nice company with 100 employees in your hometown, but private equity wants it to be worth 3x in 5 years, so they try to fire everyone and move the business somewhere bigger/cheaper. You might get rich, but everyone you know will hate you.

That or they fire most of the employees and bleed the company until it is a husk, extracting the last vestiges of potential profit until everything of value has been fully depleted.

Re: (Score:1)

by vladoshi ( 9025601 )

From watching various Youtube finance guys, the main point appears to be you take out a loan on the good business you just bought (with other peoples money), and put that money somewhere governments cannot tax it (Israel, South Dakota, etc) and it does not matters if you kill the original business.

Wrong problem (Score:1)

by Iamthecheese ( 1264298 )

They headache private equity SHOULD be having is a massive crackdown on monopolistic behavior and collusion.

Oh, now it makes sense. (Score:1)

by thrasher thetic ( 4566717 )

I read this as 'Zombie Films' and was extremely confused for a little bit.

Re: (Score:2)

by CommunityMember ( 6662188 )

> I read this as 'Zombie Films' and was extremely confused for a little bit.

The next installment of the night of the living dead will have bankers in brooks brothers suits slowly walking around trying to find investors who want to drain companies of value....

PE can fuck off (Score:5, Insightful)

by anoncoward69 ( 6496862 )

Word of advice for youngins out there. If the place you work for is ever bought out by a private equity firm, brush up your resume and abandon ship ASAP. You' re going to be out of work in a year either due to "downsizing" or the PE firm just runs the company into the ground collecting as much money as they can in the process.

Re: (Score:3)

by anoncoward69 ( 6496862 )

Pretty much ever PE firm's MO is to saddle the acquired company with as much debt as possible, extract as much cash as possible then walk away from the dumpster fire. Wash Rinse Repeat with the next company.

Also don't do business with PE-owned businesses (Score:5, Insightful)

by hwstar ( 35834 )

This includes things like auto repair shops, dentists, veterinarians, home improvement contractors.

PE has been seeping into these businesses by buying out the owners.

A good way to tell if a company is PE-owned if they won't tell you is to look at their consumer contract.

Firms owned by PE extract as much from the customer as they legally can and leave no value on the table. Their contracts are full of binding arbitration, evergreening (automatic renewal) clauses, and short warranty periods.

The materials used by PE-owned businesses are sub-par as they cut their material costs to the bone. This explains the short warranty periods.

Re: (Score:2)

by dysmal ( 3361085 )

It's sickening how many "local businesses" they've gotten their fangs into. The first 3 HVAC companies I looked at for a new furnace here were backed by those parasites. Finally found a smaller company that's still independent but it's getting harder and harder to find them.

Re: (Score:2)

by TigerPlish ( 174064 )

Exactly what happened to my 2nd IT job. Clipboard-bearing suits came and were shown everything. 2 months later I left. 2 months after that the announcement came that the company had been sold off to a PE firm.

That PE took a 50-year old, money-making medical firm (billing, staffing, etc) and promptly ran it into an iceberg. After the carnage, it was sold yet again.. and one more time.

Now they exist in name only, a sub of a sub of a sub of some other company.

Getting bought out is almost universally undesi

Old news (Score:2)

by hdyoung ( 5182939 )

Private equity always had tons of zombie firms. The spread of performance on private equity was always huge. The top performers can multiply the money by 3x, 4x, or even more. But, most of them show a loss.

If you're willing to take that level of risk, the overall performance of private equity is actually better than the stock market, but you're playing Russian Roulette with 4 of the chambers loaded.

Investing is essentially gambling (Score:2)

by devslash0 ( 4203435 )

Investing is gambling, just with a little more information about the game. Have you made bad bets and you don't want to sell at a loss? Well... Tough!

40% growth forever (Score:2)

by sphealey ( 2855 )

The smartest guys in the room somehow failed to realize that 40% compounded growth forever at 80%-3000% gross margins wasn't possible. It can happen for 5-10 years of an economic turnover (whether driven by new technology, new forms of organization, immigration, or other fundamental changes) but just because it happens to some organizations for 5, 10, even 20 years does not mean it can/will happen to every organization - and trees don't grow to the sky.

They're going to raid your 401k (Score:4, Informative)

by rsilvergun ( 571051 )

Trump changed a lot of the regulations around investing in private equity to open it up to investors like your 401k and your grandparents. That's because the gold rush for private equity is over and it's now a festering corpse looking for victims.

You're going to find it difficult to opt out of all of this in your 401k because it's going to be disguised so you don't see which companies are doing it.

What's worse is if you have parents or grandparents that have a bit of retirement money to invest, especially the kind that saved a little bit of money but not really enough to live off of so they are looking for a quick buck, they are prime candidates to be ripped off by private equity ghouls.

Furthermore Trump is openly selling pardons to the point where there's a Wall Street journal article about it. That means that they know they can rip you or your parents or your grandparents off and get away with it by kicking Trump a few million bucks and waiting for the pardon. State charges could be a problem but federal charges generally override State charges in these cases. So all they have to do is make sure they land in a federal court for the conviction and they are home free.

I know nobody wants to hear it and somebody will probably use one of their alts come on me down but well, elections have consequences.

There's a damn good reason Trump himself said Democrats are better for the economy.

Re: (Score:2)

by hwstar ( 35834 )

You may have to change jobs to get rid of those awful funds. The whole 401K thing is a closed garden racket.

Ever wonder why you can't invest in an IRA when your employer offers a 401K?

Ever wonder why the annual contribution limits for IRA's are much lower than 401K's?

Ever wonder why the owner of a small business can invest more in a "Sole Proprietor" IRA or SEP then an employee can if they work for a company who doesn't offer a 401K?

These rules are there because special interests were able to lobby for them

They bought my plumber! (Score:4, Informative)

by boxless ( 35756 )

Seems like there is too much money out there.

Famously, they’ve been buying up residential homes and apartments at a torrid pace, with all the fun that will bring.

But they are also buying up small service firms like my plumber (and funeral homes, and insurance agencies, and medical/dental practices, and). My plumber probably has 100 employees. So, not tiny, but not huge, either. I knew the guy who started it. He sold out. I suppose I can’t blame him. First thing I notice next time I need help? Hourly rates doubled. Parts much more expensive.

I get these PE masters of the universe are going to buying and selling companies. It’s what they do. But can they stay off Main Street?

We will wake up 10 years from Now and none of the local businesses you use will be locally owned. I think that’s a bad thing.

Spare me any talk that they are providing some sort of efficiency service here. I bet my plumber’s business is well run. What they found was that they could charge a lot more for worse service. That’s all.

Re: (Score:2)

by hwstar ( 35834 )

Time to find a new plumber.

Once PE buys a home improvement contractor, they change the terms in the contract to extract all the value for themselves and leave nothing on the table for the consumer.

Read the contract before committing to any new business. The contract will almost tell you that a business is PE owned. It will have shitty terms for you and indemnify them.

Re:They bought my plumber! (Score:4, Interesting)

by fuzzyfuzzyfungus ( 1223518 )

The usual term with things like plumbers is "rollup". Even the most delusional excel jockey probably doesn't believe he has 'operational alpha' vs. a veteran plumber in matters of plumbing; but he(correctly) knows that local plumbing outfits are a fairly heavily fragmented industry with a lot of relatively small players; the sort of quaint folksy thing that looks like one of those competitive free markets they told you about in EC101. And, if you, purely hypothetically, can borrow money for a pittance, you don't need to improve operations when you can just buy a bunch of the small players, consolidate them, and then raise prices to match the newly reduced level of competition.

Same deal works with more or less any business with a lot of mom 'n pop operators; as well as things like rental housing. Maybe there are some marginal efficiency improvements in back office functions because it's not eleventy zillion individual copies of quickbooks; but most of the actual margins come from the higher prices you can command from customers and the lower prices you can offer to suppliers and employees once you consolidate a given sector in a given area. The effect is particularly lurid when it comes to thinks like small medical and dental practices; or care homes; since there it's about the money; but being about the money is also about pushing your employees to recommend unnecessary implant surgery and cutting patient/staff ratios as hard as you can without anyone noticing too many bedsores. Fantastic stuff, really.

Lot of Stupid Money Out There (Score:2)

by Koreantoast ( 527520 )

> Seems like there is too much money out there.

Agreed. Seeing the eye-watering returns that some of the big, blue chip players made, you've got a lot of people chasing after them. Problem is, the blue chip guys are able to get the best deals, and these smaller ones are having to rely upon riskier opportunities. No surprise them that they thus have more difficulty meeting their returns. I shed no tears - risk is an inherent part of capitalism. They made a risky bet with this midsized firms, so if, surprise, they don't make their money, then it's on them.

equityzen, startengine - the worst investments (Score:1)

by retrobunnies ( 6948924 )

At one point I thought I'd expand into some early PE investments. My worst investments - in any category - have been equityzen, startengine and these other firms. your investments are highlly illiquid - they plummet in value for no reason, and good luck getting any additional info. It's been a disaster. Unless the company goes public - that 1 in a 100 chance you end up being screwed.

Myopic to the last... (Score:2)

by fuzzyfuzzyfungus ( 1223518 )

"There is existential risk for a number [of funds] because of the fundraising environment,"

I'm not sure words can adequately express the hubris and myopia of someone who blames "the fundraising environment" for the fact that their heavily leveraged buyout of a bunch of things they had no actual plan to improve value of is catching up with them.

In the strict legal sense it might not be a ponzi scheme; you can end up depending on new suckers to pay off your current creditors through incompetence as well

Sounds like someone (Score:1)

by bonedonut ( 4687707 )

is gonna need a bailout! How many tax dollars will it take to fix their troubles?

Private equity is a symptom of a problem (Score:2)

by FeelGood314 ( 2516288 )

Private equity firms provide a service for the economy. If you built a midsize company and want to retire they often offer you more than any other entrepreneur will. They offer liquidity for the market in midsize companies and they offer liquidity in the housing market. As a home seller they allow you to sell faster and potentially at a higher rate.

But why are PE firms able to profit in these markets? Why is there a lack of liquidity that gives them an arbitrage advantage?

In housing it is the high

Love is what you've been through with somebody.
-- James Thurber