'America Is Slow-Walking Into a Polymarket Disaster' (theatlantic.com)
- Reference: 0180635466
- News link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/26/01/22/006212/america-is-slow-walking-into-a-polymarket-disaster
- Source link: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/01/america-polymarket-disaster/685662/
> [...] The problem is that prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes as much about gambling as about the event itself. This kind of thing has already happened to sports, where the language of "parlays" and "covering the spread" has infiltrated every inch of commentary. ESPN partners with DraftKings to bring its odds to SportsCenter and Monday Night Football; CBS Sports has a [3]betting vertical ; FanDuel runs its own streaming network. But the stakes of Greenland's future are more consequential than the NFL playoffs.
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> The more that prediction markets are treated like news, especially heading into another election, the more every dip and swing in the odds may end up wildly misleading people about what might happen, or influencing what happens in the real world. Yet it's unclear whether these sites are meaningful predictors of anything. After the Golden Globes, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan [4]excitedly posted that his site had correctly predicted 26 of 28 winners, which seems impressive -- but Hollywood awards shows are generally predictable. One recent study [5]found that Polymarket's forecasts in the weeks before the 2024 election were not much better than chance.
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> These markets are also manipulable. In 2012, one bettor on the now-defunct prediction market Intrade placed a series of huge wagers on Mitt Romney in the two weeks preceding the election, generating a betting line indicative of a tight race. The bettor did not seem motivated by financial gain, according to two researchers who examined the trades. "More plausibly, this trader could have been attempting to manipulate beliefs about the odds of victory in an attempt to boost fundraising, campaign morale, and turnout," they wrote. The trader lost at least $4 million but might have shaped media attention of the race for less than the price of a prime-time ad, they concluded. [...]
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> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolas Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that [6]netted a roughly $400,000 payout . Or maybe someone with inside information was looking for easy money. [...] As Tarek Mansour, Kalshi's CEO, has said, his long-term goal is to "financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion." (Kalshi means "everything" in Arabic.) What could go wrong? As one viral post on X [7]recently put it , "Got a buddy who is praying for world war 3 so he can win $390 on Polymarket." It's a joke. I think.
[1] https://x.com/atrupar/status/2008922426508255407
[2] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/01/america-polymarket-disaster/685662/
[3] https://www.cbssports.com/betting/
[4] https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/2010862175607488709
[5] https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/d5yx2_v1.html
[6] https://news.slashdot.org/story/26/01/07/1438220/polymarket-refuses-to-pay-bets-that-us-would-invade-venezuela
[7] https://x.com/BuckOnTwidder/status/2011530672696172929
Who cares? (Score:2)
> especially heading into another election
I don't vote based on popularity, social pressure or what some gambling market predicts. That some people do is one reason why this is NOT a democracy. It's a democratically elected republic.
It's a sad commentary on the electorate when they can be influenced in their choices even when they are casting secret ballots and no one will know how they voted. And it has little to do with recently developed prediction markets. The press and biased polling organizations have been manipulating the weak little minds
Re: (Score:2)
I don't think it is that people go the ballot box wanting to 'vote for the winner' or 'support the under dog' etc.
It is more a function of if they vote at all. If you think your guy/gal does not stand a chance maybe you just stay home. Similarly if you think they got it in the bag maybe you don't bother to show up.
I doubt this is as impactful as it used to be though, given early voting and mail in voting. I still believe both of those things actually undermine the democratic process and encourage lazy vot
Public opinion (Score:2)
The articles I've seen have used Polymarket as a signal of public opinion. That's probably useful for predicting who wins an awards show, but if you equate that with "reality" in total, the resulting befuddlement is on you.
Unrelated, but if you pay any money into these sites, you're basically inviting someone to insider-trade your money away from you. It's like walking into a casino where all the dice are funny and the decks are marked.
Re: Public opinion (Score:3)
The problem is a market exchange that is pliable to manipulation is by definition a strong predictor of its market movements.
If its purely 'stock markets', its all fun and games until the speculative assets infect the core economy. If you have any memory if 2008 that should be a concern, and that was a "could have gone terribly worse" scenario.
Polymarket brings speculation and feedback loops with consequences far out of the financial world. The risk of insider trading reaping "undeserved riches" is real, bu
Gambling (Score:3)
It's not a prediction market it's gambling. The fact that nobody calls it gambling tells me all I need to know about how our media is owned Lock stock and barrel.
Re: (Score:2)
Media just print the names they're given, they don't make the names. If you want to be accusing someone then look at the traders/speculators and industry they support.
"shredding whatever shared trust we still had" (Score:2)
I mean, is there any even left to begin with?
Re: (Score:3)
If you trust the markets at all, I have AI to sell you.