Dozens of US Colleges Close as Falling Birth Rate Pushes Them Off Enrollment Cliff (bloomberg.com)
- Reference: 0180604794
- News link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/26/01/17/089219/dozens-of-us-colleges-close-as-falling-birth-rate-pushes-them-off-enrollment-cliff
- Source link: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-college-enrollment-cliff/
> The country's tumbling birth rate is pushing schools toward a "demographic cliff," where a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s will leave desks and classrooms empty. Many smaller, lesser-known schools like Cazenovia have already hit the precipice. They're firing professors, paring back liberal arts courses in favor of STEM — or closing altogether. Others will likely reach the cliff in the next few years... [T]the US birth rate ticked upward slightly before the 2008 financial crisis, and that brief demographic boost has kept enrollment at larger schools afloat. But the nationwide pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025. Schools face the risk that each incoming class could be smaller than the last. The financial pressure will be relentless...
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> Since 2020, more than 40 schools have announced plans to close, displacing students and faculty and leaving host towns without a key economic engine... Close to 400 schools could vanish in the coming decade, according to Huron Consulting Group. The projected closures and mergers will impact around 600,000 students and redistribute about $18 billion in endowment funds, Huron estimates... Pennsylvania State University, citing falling enrollment at many of its regional branches, plans to shutter seven of its 20 branch campuses after the spring 2027 semester... [C]ampuses in far-flung places, without brand recognition, are falling out of favor with students already questioning the value of a college degree. For example, while Penn State's flagship University Park campus saw enrollment grow 5% from 2014 to 2024, 12 other Penn State campuses recorded a 35% drop, according to a report tasked with determining whether closures were necessary.
The article notes that "Less than half of students whose schools shut down before they graduate re-enroll in another college or university, according to [2]a 2022 study ."
But even at colleges that remain, "The shrinking supply of students has already sparked a frenzied competition for high school seniors..."
> Some public institutions are letting seniors bypass traditional requirements like essays and letters of recommendation to gain entry automatically... Direct-admission programs, which allow students to skip traditional applications, are one potential response. Some 15 states have them, according to Taylor Odle, assistant professor of educational policy studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He found in a 2022 paper that direct admissions increased first-year undergrad enrollment by 4% to 8%... And they don't require nearly as many paid staff to run, since there are no essays or letters of recommendation to read.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-college-enrollment-cliff/
[2] https://sheeo.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/SHEEO_NSCRC_CollegeClosures_Report1.pdf
Diminishing Returns (Score:2)
It's also about the continuously diminishing returns from investing tens or even hundreds of thousands to get higher education.
Re: (Score:2)
The returns on college education are still huge, unless you get that interpretive macrame degree. Even my philosophy degree has paid large dividends.
I got an idea! (Score:5, Funny)
Immigra ^ `@j # ~ NO CARRIER
Re: (Score:1)
"Indians bad, honkies good"
Re: (Score:2)
We need people with college degrees to... enroll in college as undergrads?
Upgrade associate's to bachelor's (Score:2)
Trying to make that make sense:
Foreign students with a sufficiently rigorous associate's degree (2 years) could transfer to a US university for two more years to earn a bachelor's degree.
Re: (Score:2)
Hahaha wish I could mod this funny.
Re: (Score:2)
No! Don't pick up the dog!
KLJ*(&@#H!))!*!U90uhd1hj NO TERRIER
University is broken (Score:2)
AI and Wikipedia have eaten their lunches in terms of actual education, and with mass unemployment on the horizon by pro-enshittification megacorps even for those who went through the system a good rehaul of both the university and employment contract needs to be written. For a start a guaranteed job placement that pays off the student loan and a down payment for a house as a reward for graduation needs to happen.
Sure, gotta be the birth rates (Score:1)
And not the super high tuition fees coupled with little chance of getting a degree that you can apply with any success in the real world.
Re: (Score:3)
Tuitions aren't helping, but birth rates are a real factor. My kids' school district closed five elementary schools over the summer, and it may close one of its middle schools in the next couple of years after it escaped this round. The district built up about 20-25 years ago to accommodate over 50,000 students based on population forecasts, but it peaked at 44,000 and has been slowly sliding for several years. Other districts are doing or considering the same thing for the same reason. This is in the Dalla
that's a rounding error (Score:3)
There are almost 6000 colleges in the United States. "Dozens" of closures amounts to well under 1%. I think we'll be just fine.
Good (Score:4, Insightful)
I acknowledge that it sucks for those who lose their jobs or who have to transfer, but we have too many colleges trying to capitalize on the education bubble.
Not everyone needs a college education. We have turned college into High-School part 2. Students enroll in college "because it is what is next".
It is out of control, and the bubble needs to deflate.
A lot of them are weird religious schools (Score:2)
And it's not just declining birth rates. Religion has been heavily politicized in the last 10 years and it's tanking attendance at churches.
I also suspect that the absurd cost coupled with the affordability crisis in general is a problem. I put my kid through college a while ago now and I have no idea what I would do with instead of paying 500 or 600 a month for rent it was $1500. Never mind that every year more subsidies get pulled.
We're basically making College a luxury for the rich and the people
Or maybe... (Score:2)
...people have been told for years that a degree is a ticket to wealth.
Some interpreted this to mean that the degree was all that mattered, not the education or the trained mind that results from hard work. So they slouched through college, putting in minimum effort, socializing, binge drinking and cheating on exams. When it came time to get a job, they discovered that they had no marketable skills. Maybe the slackers no longer want to accumulate a mountain of debt for a useless degree.
The excellent, who wa
College doesn't make sense anymore. (Score:2)
Paying $100k for 4 years of getting ChatGPT to write your papers (and getting them back from another ChatGPT that graded them), just to enter a job market that doesn't exist anymore... seems like a bad use of your time and your money.
falling birth rates? (Score:2)
I don’t think so. More like $200,000 to a college degree to work at Starbucks is the reason.
A hint... (Score:3)
What was going on ~18 years ago in the United States? The Great Recession [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] That's not the only cause, but it definitely helped create a hole in the population in the population of senior high school/college age kids.
The two Universities I'm associated with (Norwich, where I got my undergrad, and UNH, where I took courses as a non-degree student) both have been talking about this for the last 5 years or more. The local city school district also talked about this as part of their budgeting presentations. So this should not be a surprise to anyone who is actually in the eduction business (unless, of course, they can't do simple math...)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession
Re: (Score:2)
The fertility rate in the US has been below replacement level since 1972, except for a handful of years. It started to decline with the Great Recession, and it continued a steady decline until 2022. It blipped up in 2024, but it's still not enough.
Falling birth rate - not enough people... hrm (Score:1)
Gee I wonder what would fix that. Well one is mandating no abortions... but let me think. There's something else - immigrant something, oh yes if we have immigrants then they can help increase our population. They have lots of kids, gee that might help. Oh wait - that won't work because of what's happening in the govt. Yah things are going to be just peachy in 20 yars.
Not every institution merits preservation. (Score:3)
Compete or perish. Not every school is worth attending. Not every degree gets money, and without money there is no leisure to take programs purely for fun.
Incurring debt for fun is almost always a terrible idea but the US primary education system is trash so students don't know how to make wise choices. Not everyone SHOULD bother with conventional secondary education when there are so many ways to make money.
Wrong (Score:2)
It's not the birth rate. The number of people in the USA is at the highest point in history. Which means we have more than enough students to go around.
There are lots of reasons enrolment could be down. Price of classes, rise in demand for blue collar jobs, lack of certainty in getting a white collar job, economic instability, and increased cost of living.
This may sound crazy, but if you have a large population who struggle to pay for basics, a lot of them won't pay insanely high rates to get an educa
Re: (Score:2)
The number of people in the US might be the highest ever, but is the number of college-aged people the highest ever? I doubt it. The US population, like populations pretty much everywhere, is aging.
Barring foreign students doesn't help (Score:4, Insightful)
This country is half-way through committing economic suicide 67 different ways, and destroying our university system is one of them.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
It is not a "falling birth rate" or barring foreign students. Those are factors but they are minor. The real problem is greed.
Tuition for 4 years:
In-State (PA Resident): Around $160,000 - $200,000.
Out-of-State: Around $240,000 - $280,000.
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Holy smokes! That's just tuition??
Tuition at the University of Toronto, which is a prestigious university by Canadian and international standards, is about CAD $50K for four years, depending on the program.
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Those numbers posted by AC are extremely misleading, to say the least. They would be accurate for an ivy league, or a very small elite liberal arts school. That would be the going rate for a low-performing, rich foreign student who wants to go to a top-25-ranked US institution, doesnt qualify for any academic scholarships or need-based support, and their parents are willing to write a BIG check to make it happen.
A US citizen, going to an absolutely solid mid-tier state school with really strong employm
Re: (Score:2)
CAD $50K for four years?! That's something like 36000USD.
To study at the University of Oslo, the tuition (semesteravgift) is about $100USD per 6 months, or .. $800 for 4 years.
Of course, there are books and living expenses in addition, but the tuition is .. cheap.
Re: (Score:2)
Yes. I think Canada should follow the European model for tuition, but that's not a popular opinion here, unfortunately.
Re: Barring foreign students doesn't help (Score:2)
How about you show us data that demonstrates that a lower percentage of students are attending college? That might support your argument.
You claim that high tuition is the real culprit here but you failed to support that claim in any meaningful way.
Re: Barring foreign students doesn't help (Score:2)
Those numbers are completely wrong. A 5 second google search reveals that.
Its closer to $8k per year for tuition for PA residents at a state school with Penn University being arounf $15k per year.
These are in line with many other states.
Re: (Score:1)
> It is not a "falling birth rate" or barring foreign students. Those are factors but they are minor. The real problem is greed.
> Tuition for 4 years:
> In-State (PA Resident): Around $160,000 - $200,000.
> Out-of-State: Around $240,000 - $280,000.
Not just tuition. $160k will more than cover 4 years of tuition, fees, room, and board for an in-state student in a Pennsylvania 4 year public college
Re: (Score:2)
Yes, there's greed, but you're looking at the inflated sticker price. A 10-15k per year is the normal "scholarship" for anybody who gets in, except for foreign students who are willing to pay more to get into the US. So knock 40-60k off the top right there. A lot of people get more off, depending on need and desirability to the school in question.
Public schools are, of course, far cheaper. For in-state students, UC Berkeley is under 18k per year, and it's a world class education.
Re: (Score:3)
Foreign students don't fix the issue but just kick the can further down the road.
Eventually, the countries you're getting the students from will also run out of people, and we will end up just like Japan. A bunch of ghost-cities with elementary schools that have a single class with half a dozen students of different ages.
Re: (Score:1)
> Foreign students don't fix the issue but just kick the can further down the road.
Warning to foreign students: Don't kick any cans down any roads, you'll get deported by ICE - or worse.
(ICE is channeling Jimbo and Ned - [1]My God! It's coming right for us! [youtube.com])
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaazFYTrQ_A
Re: (Score:3)
> This country is half-way through committing economic suicide 67 different ways, and destroying our university system is one of them.
s/country/Administration/
Re: (Score:2, Funny)
> committing economic suicide 67 different ways
A 6-7 reference, your grandkids would be proud!
Re: (Score:2)
Glad somebody saw it!
Re: (Score:1)
> This country is half-way through committing economic suicide 67 different ways, and destroying our university system is one of them.
Smaller colleges have been closing for years. It has nothing to do with the current administration.