AI Chip Frenzy To Wallop DRAM Prices With 70% Hike (theregister.com)
- Reference: 0180544747
- News link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/26/01/07/2250243/ai-chip-frenzy-to-wallop-dram-prices-with-70-hike
- Source link: https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/06/memory_firm_profits_up_as/
> The two Korean giants, alongside US-based Micron, dominate global memory production. All three are reallocating advanced manufacturing capacity to high-margin server DRAM and HBM chips for AI infrastructure, squeezing supply for PCs and smartphones. Financial analysts have raised their earnings forecasts for the firms in response, as they look to benefit from the AI infrastructure boom that is driving up prices for everyone else. Taiwan-based market watcher TrendForce [3]reports that conventional DRAM prices already jumped 55-60 percent in a single quarter.
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> Yet despite the focus on server chips, supply of these components continues to be strained too, with supplier inventories falling and shipment growth reliant on wafer output increases, according to TrendForce. As a result, it forecasts that server DRAM prices will jump by more than 60 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Prior to Christmas, analyst IDC noted the "unprecedented" memory chip shortage and warned this would have knock-on effects for both hardware makers and end users that may persist well into 2027.
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/06/memory_firm_profits_up_as/
[2] https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked202601050006
[3] https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260105-12860.html
Only three manufacturers matter. (Score:4, Insightful)
Itâ(TM)s absolutely bonkers that only three manufacturers matter. Itâ(TM)s crazy from a regular resiliency perspective or from a geopolitical risk perspective. There needs to be more manufacturers in more places.
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Agree. Get fabbing.
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I can't fap to that.
Oh, you said fabbing .
Samsung and Hynix Screw Consumers (Score:2)
The actions of these manufacturers are artificially creating a shortage by shifting production to server DRAM production. They then use this shift as cover for a coordinated increase of consumer DRAM prices. All the while, their manufacturing costs have not risen. Profits most certainly have. Cartel? Collusion? Criminal conspiracy?
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> The actions of these manufacturers are artificially creating a shortage by shifting production to server DRAM production. They then use this shift as cover for a coordinated increase of consumer DRAM prices. All the while, their manufacturing costs have not risen. Profits most certainly have. Cartel? Collusion? Criminal conspiracy?
You should send a strongly worded letter to the UN
Have AI help you write it.
Capitalism is broken (Score:2, Informative)
So the demand here is guaranteed for at least 4 years maybe longer. Under normal circumstances somebody would step in to meet demand but nobody is doing it.
It's not just the risk of the bubble bursting early, it's that anyone who steps into compete runs the risk of the existing players dropping prices until they are out of business.
Ordinarily that would be an anti-competitive action that would bring in the doj but let's not mince words here the current administration has absolutely no intention of e
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> So the demand here is guaranteed for at least 4 years maybe longer. Under normal circumstances somebody would step in to meet demand but nobody is doing it.
For a new fab to be built to substantially increase supply it will take 2-4 years. And it will cost at least $10B dollars. Given historical pricing of DRAM, few would wish to invest in a likely white elephant by the time it comes online. Maybe you are smarter than others, so go take your $10+B and build that fab.
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We were doing it, about 4 years ago actually but this is actual policy and management of capitalism from competent public service. So much so that instead of doubling down on success and creating more jobs, more productivity and stronger supply chains we are doing... tariffs?
[1]CHIPS and Science Act [wikipedia.org]
And if we don't like subsidies like this well, that's the actual capitalist solution when markets fail, the other alternative is the heavy handed option so we need to choose which way western man. You can have com
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act
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> Under normal circumstances somebody would step in to meet demand but nobody is doing it.
I've been saying the same damn thing about eBay for years. You'd think someone would want to be the Duracell to their Energizer, but nope.
From what I gather, investors tend to prefer chasing the new hotness rather than backing an upstart business whose plan is to challenge some crusty incumbent with a monopoly over the existing market. Really, it seems like it requires someone with Musk's level of wealth and eccentricity, and there aren't many of those people.
I'm off the treadmill! (Score:2)
For those of us that are kitted out pretty good, hopefully this means an extended lifespan, barring hardware failure. I'll forgo my usual 3 year cycle. My i9 box with 128GB ddr5 should be lots, given the fact that cutting edge pc sales are about to drop off a cliff. I might get a solid decade out of it. Software will target below my specs for a long time.
Collusion (Score:2)
Seems like a textbook case.
Simple choice for them... (Score:2)
It takes 2-5 years to build a new fab. They know within 2-5 years the bubble will pop. So there is not enough time for competitors to come in and take advantage of the demand, and there will not be a glut after the bubble.
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And there won't be a PC market to return to. I think 2 to 5 years of this and no one's going to be buying a PC.
Which is what they want.
We're only going to lose in this. The days of cheap PCs doing what you want are done. We're going to return to dumb terminals where we get to pay for controlled access.
Global conspiracy (Score:3)
Part of me thinks this is part of a global conspiracy to deny normal people the ability to generate high quality AI slop on their own computers.
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No one is running AI of any significant value on their own computers. It's all in the cloud these days like every other bit of compute. It's not going to matter if you can't get more ram or better CPUs for your home computer, because your home computer is just a glorified GUI terminal into all the compute that you rent on a monthly basis. Probably the only benefit of this is going to be a slowdown in the bloat of things like windows. Win11 already runs like a dog running though slop on even a couple year ol
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> Win11 already runs like a dog running though slop on even a couple year old PC.
This.
If it even runs. Can't buy an up to date machine? Then you can't run the "glorified GUI terminal" to even access all those goodies they are racking up in the data centers for you.
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I run Frigate NVR (CCTV camera recorder) and the AI inference of dogs, cats, humans, cars, number plates etc is pretty good, and that runs locally on the relatively-cheap GPU I have in my home-made CCTV recorder NAS box. That has "significant value" to me. People extracting significant value from local AI is fairly niche, but it's not "no one".
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> Win11 already runs like a dog running though slop on even a couple year old PC.
What, are you running it on spinning rust?
I don't have anything that could even be remotely considered a high-end PC and Windows 11 seems fine.
DDR3... (Score:2)
Sitting here staring at the pile of DDR3 DIMM's/SODIMM'd/UDIMM's in my ewaste recycle pile... Has to be like 512Gb at least...
No low ballers! I know what I have! :)
T
Can... (Score:1)
Can I haz RAM?
To hell with it all (Score:3)
I'm going to dig my CoCo3 out and have fun computing again. Take your "AI" needs and shove them.
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SSD's are probably going to be going up in price as well. They'll start converting some of that silicon production over to DRAM as well if it's profitable enough. You might want to start looking at spinning rust again. Even if SSD production isn't being converted to DRAM production you know damn well that AI companies are swallowing up SSD storage just as much.
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They have already gone up 100% in the past 3 monts.
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I mean that's not really an issue. The problem isn't just fun and games it's that this is going to affect every aspect of the economy because computers are so important to daily work and businesses are going to have to keep buying them.
That means that they're going to have to pay the extra money and that's going to mean they have to pass those costs on to you the consumer.
AI is going to cause inflation. It's going to ripple through the whole entire economy and everything you buy is going to be more
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Yeah, I was just playing with my Atari 800XL. I used Claude to write some code for it. So I guess it's still being a problem.