News: 0180522679

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Stratechery Pushes Back on AI Capital Dystopia Predictions (stratechery.com)

(Tuesday January 06, 2026 @11:41AM (msmash) from the human-premium dept.)


Stratechery's Ben Thompson has [1]published a lengthy rebuttal to Dwarkesh Patel and Philip Trammell's widely discussed winter break essay " [2]Capital in the 22nd Century ," arguing that even in a world where AI can perform all human jobs, people will still prefer human-created content and human connection.

Patel and Trammell's thesis draws on Thomas Piketty's work to argue that once AI renders capital a true substitute for labor, wealth will concentrate among those richest at the moment of transition, making a global progressive capital tax the only solution to prevent extreme inequality. The logic is sound, writes Thompson, but he remains skeptical on several fronts.

His first objection: if AI can truly do everything, then everyone can have everything they need, making the question of who owns the robots somewhat moot. His second: a world where AI is capable enough to replace all human labor yet still obeys human property law seems implausible. He finds the AI doomsday scenario -- where such powerful AI becomes uncontrollable -- more realistic than a stable capital-hoarding dystopia.

Thompson points to agricultural employment in the U.S., which dropped from 81% in 1810 to 1% today, as evidence that humans consistently create new valuable work after technological displacement. He argues that human preferences for human connection -- from podcasting audiences to romantic partners -- will sustain an economy for human labor simply because it is human. Sora currently ranks 59th in the App Store behind double-digit human-focused social apps, for instance.



[1] https://stratechery.com/2026/ai-and-the-human-condition/

[2] https://philiptrammell.substack.com/p/capital-in-the-22nd-century



Lack of imagination (Score:2)

by RobinH ( 124750 )

If you're going to create a robot workforce to create everything you need for you, then you can also create a robot army to take everyone else's stuff.

Re:Lack of imagination (Score:4, Insightful)

by korgitser ( 1809018 )

The future was promised to be that robots do the manual labor, and humans make art and sing merry songs.

The reality seems to be set that human treated as robots do the manual labor, and AI does the art and songs part.

TFA didn't get the memo it seems.

Re: (Score:2, Troll)

by timeOday ( 582209 )

People now do a tiny amount of manual labor compared to before the industrial revolution.

Re: (Score:3)

by korgitser ( 1809018 )

I was referring to the likes of the life of the Amazon warehouse or delivery worker.

Seriously? (Score:4, Insightful)

by fuzzyfuzzyfungus ( 1223518 )

"His first objection: if AI can truly do everything, then everyone can have everything they need, making the question of who owns the robots somewhat moot."

Ah, of course. Because a wealthy society is automatically an egalitarian society; as anyone who takes a quick look outside can clearly see.

If anything, the threat of utopian abundance rendering wealth nigh-irrelevant will probably encourage people who wish to retain the feeling of being wealth to double down, since the only way to know that you are ahead will be the option to look down on the huddled masses being kept in line by securibots.

Re: (Score:3)

by timeOday ( 582209 )

But he didn't say egalitarian, he said everyone can have everything they need. Big difference. Still doesn't mean he's right, of course.

Logic flaw [Re:Seriously?] (Score:2)

by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 )

No, what he said was that this makes the question of who owns the robots "somewhat moot,"

That does not follow from the premise. If AI (robots) can truly allow everyone to have everything they need, it does not follow that the owners of the AI will allow everyone to have everything they will need. "Can" and "will" are very very different things.

Logic flaw. EVERYTHING depends on who owns the robots.

Re: (Score:3)

by Green Mountain Bot ( 4981769 )

He clearly has a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives the billionaire class driving these things. They care about one thing: being in control. They might be able to provide for everyone, but they absolutely will not. They will provide only to those they can control. The rest of us will starve.

birth control (Score:3)

by Big Hairy Gorilla ( 9839972 )

Any UBI future will have to have birth control restrictions otherwise having babies becomes a profit motive in itself.

We see this in Canada where african immigrants, in particular, have babies to collect social assistance.

Don't vote me down, this is a fact.

Any predictions of a workless wealth re-distribution future collide directly with nearly all religions on the birth control issue.

Discuss.

You're trying to patch (Score:2)

by rsilvergun ( 571051 )

A completely broken operating system. Like trying to get Windows 3.1 to run modern software. It just doesn't work.

You can't just give people money. Without extreme regulations monopolies jack up prices and absorb the money you give them. And all you end up doing is creating a bit of extra inflation.

We already have birth control and birth rates well below sustainability. It's not fast enough. Residual population growth means we are going to have too many people and too few jobs for at least another h

Re: (Score:2)

by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 )

> A completely broken operating system. Like trying to get Windows 3.1 to run modern software. It just doesn't work. You can't just give people money.

That's an assertion with zero evidence to back it up, basically parroting a libertarian talking point.

In the real world, the details matter.

Re: (Score:2)

by fuzzyfuzzyfungus ( 1223518 )

I think that would depend on how the numbers work out: the current situation is one where there isn't UBI; but there are programs aimed specifically at dependent children, certain classes of disability that preclude regular employment, and some supplementary assistance for people who are working but earning below a certain amount.

If anything, a switch to UBI would seem to make spawning for profit less attractive: as it stands dependent children reliably qualify for certain welfare benefits; while working

Reducing poverty increases use of birth control (Score:2)

by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 )

> Any UBI future will have to have birth control restrictions otherwise having babies becomes a profit motive in itself.

Inaccurate. Considerable demographic research shows that reducing poverty will reduce family size. (Demographic studies also show that simply improving access to birth control reduces family size.) To the extend that Universal Basic Income would reduce poverty, it will reduce, and not increase, the number of people having babies.

> We see this in Canada where african immigrants, in particular, have babies to collect social assistance.

So, logically this means you need to implement UBI that means assistance is NOT contingent on having babies.

> Any predictions of a workless wealth re-distribution future collide directly with nearly all religions on the birth control issue.

Now, religion is a completely different matter. But the issue is unrelat

Apples to Apples (Score:3)

by gtall ( 79522 )

"agricultural employment in the U.S., which dropped from 81% in 1810 to 1% today, as evidence that humans consistently create new valuable work after technological displacement", What does agricultural employment have to do with AI? Why would you expect one to have the same characteristics as the other. He's not filling that gap with any argument either in the blurb or the article that I can see.

I think he's not being honest with himself. He cherry picked one example. He would have to argue why his one example is representative of the rest.

What a gigantic fucking idiot (Score:4, Insightful)

by drinkypoo ( 153816 )

> His first objection: if AI can truly do everything, then everyone can have everything they need, making the question of who owns the robots somewhat moot. His second: a world where AI is capable enough to replace all human labor yet still obeys human property law seems implausible.

We already produce far more than we need for everyone to have food, clothes, and shelter, yet we still have people starving, dying of exposure, and homeless. That makes it obvious that this clown is an idiot.

Human beings and the animal instinct (Score:2)

by hwstar ( 35834 )

Hoarding resources: It's hardwired into our "core-rope" memory and it was essential for our survival until very recently. Some people are better at it then others which explains why we have billionaires and trillionaires.These people tend to be mostly narcissists and that makes the the problem worse.

As long as a few of us our of the entire population continue to be driven by this hoarding instinct, nothing will change.

Will this ever change? I'm doubtful.

Re: (Score:2)

by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 )

> Hoarding resources: It's hardwired into our "core-rope" memory .

Maybe. But I'd say it seems to be in ROM. The question is, is it PROM or hard ROM?

Re: (Score:2)

by dsgrntlxmply ( 610492 )

I have memory of core-rope memory. It was used as microcode store in certain minicomputers that I used. A variant, TROS, was used as microcode store in the 360/40 and at least one IBM storage controller.

ALL human jobs? (Score:3)

by stealth_finger ( 1809752 )

"even in a world where AI can perform all human jobs, people will still prefer human-created content and human connection."

Who is going to buy your shit if no one has a job?

AI just buying and selling to each other while humanity starts again?

Dreaming BS... (Score:4, Insightful)

by SumDog ( 466607 )

None of our models, either LLMs or image diffusion, anywhere near approaches the idea of being able to do the most trivial real tasks for people. They are over-glorified predictive word generators or image curve fitness algorithms. They can be impressive, sure. But they're also "wrong" constantly, because they have no concept of reasoning or thinking. I keep hearing people like Jensen Huang use those words and he's either a marketing genius or an idiot who has no fucking idea how any of his company's products actually work.

But in regards to people wanting real things, yes of course they do. AI generated anime girls might be fun to goon to, but a good quarter of them will come out looking like man-made horrors. And most people can still tell they're AI generated. Those hands are in the wrong place, the staff comes out in a differ place on the other side of that character's body, they're super shiny (the algorithms are trying to move from total random noise to an image, that's why they looks so over-corrected/shiny), etc.

A lot of YouToobers have made a point of saying, "Our animation is hand made; not AI." MKBHD even showed the wireframe and said "this was made in a lot of blender" in his recent video where he shrinks down to the size of a modern semiconductor.

The best use of it might be to generate the models, but then pull them into Maya or Blender and still do all the animation for real. I have a feeling that's what a lot of people will end up doing. It's not going to fully replace workflows in animation ... and it's certainly not going to "think" or take our jobs. If anything, we'll see a massive rehiring of engineers who have to prove their abilities without AI, in order to fix the absolute mountains of technical debt we've accumulated from the LLM slop code.

"then everyone can have everything they need" (Score:2)

by Growlley ( 6732614 )

but wont because if I own the machine hey its mine and you get what I give you and you cant make your own because I own the rights!

He was proven right - yesterday (Score:2)

by timeOday ( 582209 )

> He argues that human preferences for human connection -- from podcasting audiences to romantic partners -- will sustain an economy for human labor simply because it is human.

It's outright funny how precisely this coincides with the story from yesterday:

[1]Influencers and OnlyFans Models Dominate US 'Extraordinary' Artist Visas [slashdot.org]

[1] https://tech.slashdot.org/story/26/01/05/166232/influencers-and-onlyfans-models-dominate-us-extraordinary-artist-visas

TL; DR (Score:3, Funny)

by greytree ( 7124971 )

Prostitution it is then.

What you prefer doesn't matter (Score:1)

by rsilvergun ( 571051 )

You won't be able to compete with companies cranking out AI slop. They'll just run you out of business. If that doesn't work they will buy you.

Consumers increasingly won't have jobs so we're not going to be able to afford fancy high-end human created stuff.

The problem with AI is that it's going to fundamentally break down the underpinnings of our entire economy. We are automating faster than we can adapt to. Seriously sit down and try the list out the jobs that are going to replace the ones being a

Nationalize the oil industry (Score:3)

by oumuamua ( 6173784 )

And then funnel profits to social programs. A number of countries have done this to help their citizens.

Re: (Score:2)

by ndsurvivor ( 891239 )

I think a modest carbon tax would be more effective, and guarantee that every penny of the tax goes to social programs, I think food assistance (snap) would be the most effective use of the funds. It would have the side effect of helping supermarkets, and farmers.

Braindead (Score:2)

by null etc. ( 524767 )

> His first objection: if AI can truly do everything, then everyone can have everything they need, making the question of who owns the robots somewhat moot.

What kind of brain-dead reasoning is this? The question of who owns the robots is directly correlated to who will profit by providing services to others. The more necessary the product, the larger the profit margins will become. Big oil, anyone?

Space is to place as eternity is to time.
-- Joseph Joubert