Jobs Vulnerable to AI Replacement Actually 'Thriving, Not Dying Out', Report Suggests (fortune.com)
- Reference: 0180505321
- News link: https://it.slashdot.org/story/26/01/03/0259241/jobs-vulnerable-to-ai-replacement-actually-thriving-not-dying-out-report-suggests
- Source link: https://fortune.com/2025/12/27/occupations-most-exposed-to-ai-automation-outperform-vanguard/
And yet that report also suggest the jobs most susceptible to replacement by AI " [2]are actually thriving, not dying out ," writes Forbes :
> "The approximately 100 occupations most exposed to AI automation are actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in terms of job growth and real wage increases," the Vanguard report revealed. "This suggests that current AI systems are generally enhancing worker productivity and shifting workers' tasks toward higher-value activities..."
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> The job growth rate of occupations with high AI exposure — including office clerks, HR assistants, and data scientists — increased from 1% in pre-COVID-19 years (2015 through 2019) to 1.7% in 2023 and beyond, according to Vanguard's research. Meanwhile, the growth rate of all other jobs declined from 1.1% to 0.8% over the same period. Workers in AI-prone roles are getting pay bumps, too; the wage growth of jobs with high AI exposure shot up from 0.1% pre-COVID to 3.8% post-pandemic (and post-ChatGPT). For all other jobs, compensation only marginally increased from 0.5% to 0.7%... As technology improves production and reallocates employee time to higher-value tasks, a smaller workforce is needed to deliver services. It's a process that has "distinct labor market implications," Vanguard writes, just like the many tech revolutions that predate AI...
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> "Entry-level employment challenges reflect the disproportionate burden that a labor market with a low hiring rate can have on younger workers," the Vanguard note said. "This dynamic is observed across all occupations, even those largely unaffected by AI..." While many people see these labor disruptions and point their fingers at AI, experts told Fortune these layoffs could stem from a whole host of issues: navigating economic uncertainty, resolving pandemic-era overhiring, and bracing for tariffs. Vanguard isn't convinced that an AI is the reason for Gen Z's career obstacles.
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> "While statistics abound about large language models beating humans in computer programming and other aptitude tests, these models still struggle with real-world scenarios that require nuanced decision-making," the Vanguard report continued. "Significant progress is needed before we see wider and measurable disruption in labor markets."
[1] https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/isg_vemo_2026.pdf
[2] https://fortune.com/2025/12/27/occupations-most-exposed-to-ai-automation-outperform-vanguard/
A little early to declare trends (Score:5, Insightful)
ChatGPT was released in late 2022, just over 3 years ago. It takes a little longer than 3 years for a new technology's impact to be clearly seen. As with any trend, there are ups and downs all the time, it takes time to establish a "trend."
Re: (Score:1)
You work with the data you have. You can make adjustments to the models as more data is acquired. You just need to be willing to adjust your trust level accordingly. It's better than throwing your hands in the aid and wailing 'small sample size!'
They are still working on the build out (Score:3)
It is extremely difficult to get people to understand that just because something didn't happen immediately and all at once doesn't mean it's not happening.
Automation devastated the middle class in America from 1980 on. It was factory automation. It ripped through high paying factory jobs and that trickled through the rest of the economy as those high-paying jobs went away and were replaced by lower paying lower skilled mcjobs.
We just don't talk about it. Everyone points to the blasted out hellscape of Detroit and then at best of couple of Republicans blamed the Democrats for it or maybe somebody mentions outsourcing.
The fact is America manufacturers more than it ever has and anytime in history we're just doing it with machines. Famously Donald Trump's commerce Secretary admitted that even if factories came back to America the jobs wouldn't because the factories would be automated.
But this didn't happen overnight. It was decades and decades. And AI isn't going to replace every single white collar job overnight it's going to do the same thing to the White collar guys that it did to the blue collar guys. Only this time we're not going to have the equivalent of plumbing the fall back on because motherfucking everybody is becoming a plumber.
Shit is going to get real. If you're under 65 you're going to see 25% unemployment in your lifetime. Your kids are going to get drafted in the wars that causes
Re: (Score:2)
People never see it coming and most have an optimist bias causing them to stark escape realities until it is unavoidable and at that point they're too ignorant, scared, and shocked to think properly. Ripe for propaganda; today, it's the best most evolved propaganda for sale along with the best distribution systems for a public with the shortest of attention spans. Attacking the messenger is the default of most people for the whole process.
Nobody seems to have learned from Big Tobacco and how incredibly inf
Seems at odds with reality (Score:2)
There's been a lot of layoffs. Where are we seeing actual job growth? It's hard to detect since the press often ignores hiring sprees but still reports layoffs.
At a lower cost. (Score:2)
Bank Teller was a respectable job until the ATM came. The ATM ushered in more but worse banks and tellers. I assume ( and observe that ) it's the same with software development.
Quantity Over Quality (Score:1)
So now instead of 2 startups employing 5 people each making some mediocre apps that most people will never use, we have 11 startups employing 2 people each and churning out an endless stream of AI slop. Progress!
Fair to State that Slashdotters Know Better (Score:2)
Week after week, we have seen reports here not only layoffs caused by AI, layoffs caused by speculation that it might do the job--all the way to canceled job creation, a hidden statistic.
Fishy (Score:3)
This piece sounds like whitewashing to me. "Look at all the good AI is doing for us". "AI is actually our friend."