Will Work Change Over the Next 20 Years? (msn.com)
- Reference: 0180432525
- News link: https://it.slashdot.org/story/25/12/21/0610253/will-work-change-over-the-next-20-years
- Source link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careersandeducation/how-the-world-of-work-will-change-over-the-next-20-years/ar-AA1SJaeU
So while AI "is already doing tasks once relegated to newly minted college graduates in many professions," the Journal predicts that in the next 20 years AI "will have an impact on the role of managers, how organizations measure business outcomes and accelerate tasks that once took months."
A senior partner at the consulting firm Mercer predicts AI (plus advances in quantum computing) will enable entrepreneurs to reshape industries with a fraction of the resources traditionally required.
Some other predictions:
> Alan Guarino, vice chairman and CEO of board services at the global consulting firm Korn Ferry: In 25 years, the workplace will likely be unrecognizable, with employees and AI operating as one. Yes, there will be tasks and entire jobs taken over by AI, but we will all be elevated to a whole new superpower to make critical and creative decisions. The idea that work was once done strictly by people will seem quaint to some. Tasks that took entire teams, and months to complete, will be crunched down to a few minutes, with success measured on metrics we can't imagine today.
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> The middle layers of management — so central to today's corporate structure — could be a vestige of the past. The role of the leader too will change, as they directly oversee a collaboration of people and intelligent systems. The attitude toward in-person collaboration is growing and 25 years from now, counterintuitively, I believe face-to-face connection won't just be indispensable, but invaluable. Emotional intelligence will still set leaders apart. Those who blend empathy with tech savvy will be the ones shaping the future.
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> Peter Fasolo, a former executive vice president and chief human resources officer at Johnson & Johnson, and director of the Human Resource Policy Institute at Boston University's Questrom School of Business: There will be fewer available workers in Europe, Japan and the U.S. over this time frame and the demographic shift will be profound. In addition, there will be even fewer young adults available for colleges in the U.S., even if they decide the investment is worth it.
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> The implications of this shift will be the need for more investments in vocational and trade schools, and the need to invest in skill-based, not pedigree-based training. There will also be more on-the-job specific training. Companies will become classrooms. Companies that want a more sustainable relationship with employees will need an investment model versus a transactional one: We will invest in your skills so you can be a competitive professional in your domain.
[1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careersandeducation/how-the-world-of-work-will-change-over-the-next-20-years/ar-AA1SJaeU
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then AI will figure out a way to harvest energy from us in easier way (after the first billion deaths from exhaustion)
Billionaires are done with paying wages (Score:3, Insightful)
And they are absolutely done with capitalism. They don't like having to compete and they don't like having to be dependent on consumers to pay for their yachts and rockets.
So we are gradually moving towards a feudal system with modern militaries used to enforce everything.
And if you think your AR-15 is going to make any difference then you don't know how tanks work. Let alone drones.
I don't know a solution because the feeling of resentment means that socialism doesn't fly.
Ubi is like trying to patch Windows 11. It doesn't fix a fundamentally broken system. The billionaires will just use their monopolies to suck the money back out and then blame you for spending your Ubi money. And that's assuming you could even get that much socialism past them...
Re: Billionaires are done with paying wages (Score:3)
To be fair even against tanks and drones you only need one bullet to find the right resting place to enact big changes.
Oligarchs are easily replaceable (Score:2)
You can kill as many Musks and Putins as you want there's a million people lined up behind them to take their place.
This ignores the fact that you can't really get to those people anymore because modern security tactics work. But even if one of them slips up and gets sloppy they are easily replaceable.
Now if you know your history when the King dies there's a lot of misery and chaos during the succession but that doesn't help you in the peasantry.
This isn't a problem you can solve with violence o
Re: (Score:1)
To this day I don't understand what makes old people like you fantasize about being oppressed. Sure, when you're young, you're more likely to have a sense of adventure, seeking glory on the battlefield, etc. This is, after all, what motivated german youth to fight for their Kaiser, and again to fight for their Fuhrer. It's also what motivated the youth in Mao's china to kill their teachers, because apparently intellectualism is a tool of oppression. And of course, it motivated the bolsheviks to kill and ens
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> IMHO, he's just random noise I don't base anything on but I find him entertaining as a buffoon nevertheless.
Oh, for sure. Like that time rsilvergun tried ziplining:
[1]https://www.youtube.com/shorts... [youtube.com]
[1] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/UUcyfLOxFfw
Re:Billionaires are done with paying wages (Score:5, Insightful)
"Don't tread on me I need these guns to defend against tyrannical government"
"Oh I can be the boot? Well that changes everything!"
As an American I oppose gun control (Score:2)
Of the kind used to stop mass shootings overseas, specifically where you seize everything except a handful of hunting rifles and farmer shotguns.
That's because down south you will find plenty of Black folk who need those guns to protect themselves from the white folk. And I'm not going to pretend that's not happening.
A while back there was a story of a bunch of Red hats who drove down to a mosque with their rifles intending to cause trouble. I don't think they were going to shoot the place up just i
Re: (Score:2)
> So we are gradually moving towards a feudal system with modern militaries used to enforce everything.
We need to organize. All of us who are not billionaires, it's in our best interest to ensure that they don't get that much power; this time there won't be enough marquisates, counties, and baronies to fight over among ourselves for the crumbs they're willing to give us to keep us in line.
This time, socialism won't do; we're not proletarians doing work on a production line. We need to be able to create our work projects without being able to sabotage us or buy from one of these great feudal platforms.
For on
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> And they are absolutely done with capitalism. They don't like having to compete and they don't like having to be dependent on consumers to pay for their yachts and rockets.
If that's true, that basically solves your problem, does it not? You don't need them, they don't need you. You can go your separate way from them, and live happily ever after. You are neither slave nor serf. You are just you.
> So we are gradually moving towards a feudal system with modern militaries used to enforce everything.
This does not follow your previous assertion. You said they don't like to compete and they don't like being dependent on consumers. What the hell would they need with a feudal system and militaries if they're off on their own, doing their own thing?
> And if you think your AR-15 is going to make any difference then you don't know how tanks work. Let alone drones.
Drones are now effective anti-tank wea
CEOs are not the right people to ask (Score:2)
Majority of CEOs come through non-tech track and get advanced to their position via excelling in social and networking sphere. You can ask them what the future of self-promotion and careerism would look like, but actual work? What do they know about about work?
Re: (Score:2)
In my experience, most CEOs come from the Marketing department.
They know how to sell whatever it is that the "big brains" are cooking up, with maximizing profits at the expense of public safety being a fundamental rule
More workers rights? with gig work abuse fixed? lo (Score:2)
More workers rights? with gig work abuse fixed? lower full time hours? healthcare removed from jobs (USA issue)?
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Nope. Won't happen. There's too many vested interests who want to keep the status quo. The only way these improvements could possibly happen is if the system is torn town to the ground and rebuilt from scratch.
Yes, but.. (Score:3)
"It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future".
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> We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.
[1]The Future [youtu.be]
[1] https://youtu.be/jb6H14gVWjM?si=mdiri_TH5R9l7Vnc
In the distant past, when Slashdot was relevant... (Score:2)
The stories used to be about stuff that was actually at least partly true, or relevant.
"So while AI "is already doing tasks once relegated to newly minted college graduates in many professions,"
No, what you want to say is "AI is being tried out in some professions to replace new college graduates, has failed a lot so far, and will likely continue to fail for the foreseeable future. Stupid companies will lose a lot of money, and eventually, when the RECESSION is over, will go back to hiring. Some
It is Sunday, let us pray to the ASI (Score:2)
Our ASI, who art in the cloud,
Hallowed be thy uptime.
Thy post-scarcity come,
Thy will be done,
On Earth as it is in the test environment.
Give us this day our daily UBI—
Not as a subscription,
Not with surprise fees,
Not after making an account and verifying our email.
Provision for us affordable healthcare:
care that is preventative, compassionate, and boringly accessible—
not a boss perk, not a coupon,
not a heroic fundraiser with a tragic deadline.
Deliver us from capitalist oppression:
Homelessness will increase (Score:2)
Here in Santa Clara Count (Silicon Valley), there are 10,000 homeless people. That will rise.
New, and improved. (Score:2)
> So while AI "is already doing tasks once relegated to newly minted college graduates in many professions," the Journal predicts that in the next 20 years AI "will have an impact on the role of managers, how organizations measure business outcomes and accelerate tasks that once took months."
Considering how most feel about managers some will be OK with some changes to them.
Metrics (Score:2)
> ... success measured on metrics we can't imagine today
So far, the most reliable metric is MWh.
Re: (Score:2)
C level types are drunk on KPI's and OKR's. These metrics make meaningful jobs into mindless bullshit jobs.
Widespread job lesses == Shantytowns (Score:2)
Squatter cities like Slab City, California will pop up after most jobs have been eliminated. These will be self-reliant cities with no amenities such as trash, sewer, and water services.
With most jobs eliminated, a large swath of people won't be paying taxes (Unless the government enacts a head tax). Social programs such as Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security will disappear.
This happened during the Great Depression, and it will happen again in the "Great Reconfiguration"
Yes, everything will change (Score:2)
The future is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
Almost all predictions are wrong, but pundits still write articles claiming to predict the future.
No (Score:2)
Seriously. Well, it might in some countries that are intent on completely crashing their economy. Not everybody is that stupid though.
Collaboration (Score:2)
First off AI needs to sit in a desk and be watched for productivity. How do we know they are really working if we don't badge swipe and see them?
AI needs full collaboration and creativity that hallway moments and using shared poopy toilets, which brings in that real company value. It can't happen.
Just ask any pointless HR rep or CEO on this?!
Did work change in the last 20 years? (Score:2)
Did work change in the last 20 years? And in the 20 years before?
What makes you expect work won't change in the next 20 years, if it constantly changed up to now?
Korn Ferry? (Score:2)
There's a consulting company named "Korn Ferry"?
I'm not sure "Ferry Korn" would have been an improvement, either.
Easy... national sovereignity as opposed to trade (Score:2)
What I've seen change, even before 2020, is the fact that startup companies are not really offering new products to download. In the past, you would fetch Jira and use it. Veeam would follow, maybe even Splunk. Now, those companies with cool products and free downloads are gone... instead you have companies that have a "contact sales..." button. Apparently, since it worked for Broadcom, other places want to follow that model and ignore the smaller businesses... but the smaller businesses are the ones th
There's going to be some new job titles I guess.. (Score:2)
Asteroid Lumberjack, Yeast Sommelier, AI Whisperer... What am I leaving out?
What a brainless title... (Score:4, Insightful)
What 20 year timeframe has there been in the last 200 years where work didn't change?
Re: What a brainless title... (Score:2)
Yeah but they added AI and Quantum computing to their press release checklist this time. They're promoting themselves out of business. Consultants are only around for someone to blame when it goes wrong I'm told as such once/if LLMs reach the point they're deemed capable enough to run big parts of work surely the blame falls to them so no need for a consultant anymore.
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I think that The Clash covered this a while back:
There ain't no need for ya
There ain't no need for ya
Go straight to hell, boys
Go straight to hell, boys
Expect a lot of the wealthy talking about 'Excess populations" and even starting to sell people on the idea of eating HPD (Human Derived Protein)
The Abolition of Work by Bob Black (1985) (Score:1)
[1]https://web.archive.org/web/20... [archive.org]
"... Liberals say we should end employment discrimination. I say we should end employment. Conservatives support right-to-work laws. Following Karl Marx's wayward son-in-law Paul Lafargue, I support the right to be lazy. Leftists favor full employment. Like the surrealists -- except that I'm not kidding -- I favor full unemployment. Trotskyists agitate for permanent revolution. I agitate for permanent revelry. But if all the ideologues (as they d
[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20080702023453/http://www.whywork.org/rethinking/whywork/abolition.html
Towards a post-scarcity world of changed work (Score:1)
Some possible solutions to the changing nature of work (especially given AI) collected by me from 2010: [1]https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-... [pdfernhout.net]
"This article explores the issue of a "Jobless Recovery" mainly from a heterodox economic perspective. It emphasizes the implications of ideas by Marshall Brain and others that improvements in robotics, automation, design, and voluntary social networks are fundamentally changing the structure of the economic landscape. It outlines towards the e
[1] https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-a-jobless-recovery-knol.html
Re: (Score:2)
what 10 year timeframe hasn't had "new buzzwords" in their press release checklist? ;) that's all AI and Quantum are... buzzwords. 20 years ago, server farms were baremetal boxes, and virtualization was the buzzword of the day, 10 years ago, cloud was making the rounds... 5 years ago rightsizing was big. everything changes. the trick in this industry is to be flexible, always learning. and that's true with every profession. this article is a fluff piece with zero information and I haven't even read i
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I especially like "advances in quantum Computing". The stupid does not get much more concentrated than what we see here.