2026 Will Bring Heat More Than 1.4C Above Preindustrial Levels, UK Met Office Says (theguardian.com)
- Reference: 0180417463
- News link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/25/12/18/1716218/2026-will-bring-heat-more-than-14c-above-preindustrial-levels-uk-met-office-says
- Source link: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/18/met-office-2026-will-bring-heat-more-than-14c-above-preindustrial-levels
The forecast suggests another temporary exceedance of the 1.5C threshold set by the Paris Agreement is possible in 2026, following the first such breach in 2024. The 1.5C target is measured as a 30-year average, so it remains technically achievable even as individual years cross the line. EU scientists said last week that 2025 is "virtually certain" to rank as the second or third-hottest year on record.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/18/met-office-2026-will-bring-heat-more-than-14c-above-preindustrial-levels
Fer sure. (Score:1)
There is no doubt they will be correct, as they have already prepared all the temperature readings for 2026.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
So you're saying they're going to follow Robert F. Kennedy, Jr's process of declaring a reason for autism will be found and a few months later state it's caused by vaccines?
Fascinating.
They lost the battle by renaming Global Warming (Score:1)
to Climate Change. They should have hired a marketing firm.
I'm cool about it (Score:3)
As a hiker, I'm looking forward to a sunny walking season.
Re: (Score:2)
At higher altitudes, you're definitely cool about it either way.
Re: (Score:2)
As someone with enough years behind me, I no longer have any energy left to care what people decide or don't do about keeping humanity alive. The planet will keep orbiting the sun for a long time and nature will find a way to continue.
Meawhile I'm not one for walks on sunny days. Too hot and sweaty for me.
Re: (Score:2)
Reminds me of a lot of the themes from Jurassic Park that are glossed over in the movie version.
"Let's be clear. The planet is not in jeopardy. We are in jeopardy. We haven't got the power to destroy the planet - or to save it. But we might have the power to save ourselves."
-- Michael Crichton, Jurassic Park
That's not how that works (Score:2)
What you're going to get is unpredictable weather caused by disruptions in the water cycle.
So for example a whole bunch of trails you want to walk are going to be closed because heavy rain washes them away. On the other hand you also probably are going to have droughts. Because you're going to get big sudden rain storms that do damage to the trail you want to walk followed by little or no rain...
There is no upside to what's happening here no matter what the oil companies tell you.
Re: But of course no critical thinking because we (Score:2)
Sounds like you've got at least 3 spoons worth in yours. Maybe if you lift that tinfoil hat they'll evaporate through your ears from all the heavy thinking that you're doing for the society.
Re: (Score:3)
> As a hiker, I'm looking forward to a sunny walking season.
Maybe you won't if it's sunny, hot and muggy at the same time. It's less "oh it's going to be more pleasant" and more "it's going to be more miserable".
It's just more energy into a chaotic system which only gives you more chaos. It might be a sunny day, but then the chaos means you get hit with a sudden downpour and a lightning storm, then it dries up again but because the water it is walking in the heat with 100% humidity
1.4C would be a bit of a win after 2 years at 1.5C (Score:2)
I don't think its all that likely it will cool off that much next year. Its far more likely to sustain its current trend much closer to 1.5C. The IPCC has consistently got this wrong, the warming effect of CO2 is about double what they all modelled in the 1970s because we were hiding a lot of the impact with pollution. I would put my money on >1.5C again.
Re: (Score:2)
Poor Carnot.
There are too many people living check to check (Score:3)
For anyone to actually care about climate change. If you're an environmentalist you need to fix your local economy first before anything else.
And it doesn't do any good to explain why climate change is going to make the economy worse. Nobody wants to hear your explanation. They want to hear that somebody is going to make groceries cheaper and rent cheaper. If you're not telling them that they've already tuned you out.
Remember when you're explaining you're losing.
Re: (Score:2)
Though at the same time, human heat engines will have some sort of impact on the environment. To claim otherwise is fallacious.
Imagine your house at 10C and you turn your 2000W computer on, then you'll be warming that space to above the initial 10C. If enough human made machines are generating heat, then the environment will heat faster than what the environment will be doing without our influence. In the end, it is the humans and the other living species that will suffer from the resulting climate change.
Re: (Score:2)
You must live in the tropics ! Imagine my house a toasty 30-C as the blizzard howls outside. I then turn on my 200-W ( only a fool INTEREST GROUP uses 2000 W AI systems ) Ryzen-5/GForce-1660 based system. And ... the climate does not change ... nobody suffers ... I feel nothing ... so do you !
Re: (Score:2)
Simultaneously, do we not remember the article from June 2023 on science.(com? org?) where they describe how cleaning up ship fuels ended up being a bad idea because the pollutants were actually causing clouds to form, cooling the environment? And how instead of rolling back the changes quickly, we decided to "wait and see what happens" until a solution is available? Wait and see what happens is too often a bad choice, and we're watching temperatures go up more rapidly now. There was no backup plan. There i
Marine aerosols [Re:Which record?] (Score:4, Informative)
> Simultaneously, do we not remember the article from June 2023 on science.(com? org?) where they describe how cleaning up ship fuels ended up being a bad idea because the pollutants were actually causing clouds to form, cooling the environment?
The phrase "a bad idea" is editorializing. It is true that sulfate aerosol emission from shipping had a cooling effect, and reducing these emissions had an (unexpected) warming effect. Whether reducing these emissions was a bad idea or not depends on whether the beneficial effects of reducing sulfate pollution outweighs the negative effects of the slight reduction in cooling. The cooling effect of the marine sulfates was estimated at about 0.12 w/m^2, which is small compared to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, currently estimated at about 3.5 W/m^2.
Re: (Score:1)
An improvement is an improvement, and your own claims support it. The fact-based article is not "editorial". Just because you don't like the facts doesn't mean they're "editorial." And again, any amount of improvement is still an improvement. This post is said to you by somebody with 15 solar panels on his roof. I'm not anti-environmentalism. I'm anti-stupidity. I'm anti-not thinking out the consequences and anti-not having a backup plan.
Re: (Score:3)
> An improvement is an improvement, and your own claims support it. The fact-based article is not "editorial"..
No article was linked. Your assertion, on the other hand, contained both a fact ("the pollutants were actually causing clouds to form, cooling the environment") and an editorial ("a bad idea".) The fact is accurate. The editorial addition is an opinion.
If you had linked an article, probably [1]this [wiley.com] one, you would discover that it nowhere contained the editorial you added to it, "a bad idea."
[1] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL109077
Re: Which record? (Score:2)
Did you say the dinosaurs caused an asteroid impact?
Waste heat [Re:Which record?] (Score:2)
> Though at the same time, human heat engines will have some sort of impact on the environment. To claim otherwise is fallacious.
True, but it turns out that waste heat is a very small contributor to the global temperature change compared to greenhouse gasses. Basically, if you emit one erg of energy from a heat engine, that's one erg of energy one time, and done. On the other hand, if greenhouse gasses absorb one erg of energy and reradiate it downward, that same carbon dioxide will keep on absorbing and reradiating energy for the lifetime of the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, estimated to be hundreds of years under current condit
Re: (Score:1)
The problem is not the heat from you computer or the heat from the power plant. Simply speaking, that heat would just vanish into space. The problem is the CO2, which causes heat to be reflected back to earth. And the reflected heat is mostly coming from sunlight, your 2000W computer doesn't contribute as much as the sun sends to us. Not even including the heat in the power plant.
Re: (Score:2)
> The problem is not the heat from you computer or the heat from the power plant. Simply speaking, that heat would just vanish into space. The problem is the CO2, which causes heat to be reflected back to earth. And the reflected heat is mostly coming from sunlight, your 2000W computer doesn't contribute as much as the sun sends to us. Not even including the heat in the power plant.
True, now I need to look at what research says. Is it CO2 only, or is there a combined effect?
Re: (Score:2)
Does it really matter though. The notion that the world will end or completely collapse is ludicrous, but it will change in ways that we cannot fully predict and humans tend to hate change past a certain point. Some parts of the world that were previously habitable will become less so (such as when the Sahara became a desert several thousand years ago driving civilizations out of the areas they inhabited) and that will create its own set of problems. If ten million people are displaced because they can't gr
Re: Which record? (Score:2)
"Which country will welcome them openly? "
Did you just make the case for open borders?
Re:Which record? (Score:4, Informative)
But, the immanent collapse of the north Atlantic current that keeps the UK warm will cause it to freeze.
The right hand really needs to coordinate with the left hand before they both start wanking at same time.
Re: (Score:2)
You're right. Too bad nobody thought of this or accounted for this when figuring out any of this information. [1]https://xkcd.com/1732/ [xkcd.com]
[1] https://xkcd.com/1732/