News: 0180333049

  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

China's Growth Is Coming at the Rest of the World's Expense (msn.com)

(Monday December 08, 2025 @05:30PM (msmash) from the zero-sum-games dept.)


China has contributed less to global growth this year than the U.S. despite Beijing's frequent criticism of protectionism, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis citing new research from Goldman Sachs economists. U.S. imports are up 10% so far this year compared to a year earlier, while China's imports have fallen 3% in dollar terms. Goldman's economists found that the [1]historical relationship between Chinese growth and global growth has turned negative ; where 1% more Chinese output once raised world output by 0.2%, the bank now projects.

China will grow about 0.6 percentage points faster annually over the next few years while reducing the rest of the world's growth by 0.1 point per year. China's current account surplus could reach 1% of world GDP by 2029, Goldman estimates, larger than any country's since the late 1940s. China now accounts for 17% of global GDP.



[1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-s-growth-is-coming-at-the-rest-of-the-world-s-expense/ar-AA1ROiS5



1000-lb Gorilla. (Score:3)

by Ostracus ( 1354233 )

Now lets see what Blackrock has to say.

Re: (Score:2)

by SlashbotAgent ( 6477336 )

I now understand your unexpectedly low living conditions. You're still renting because you spend all your time spouting rubbish on Slashdot instead of working to earn money and improve yourself.

Get off the internet.

China is acting like the US now? (Score:2, Troll)

by celeb8 ( 682138 )

I'm sorry but this article is ridiculous. If I didn't live in the US I'd feel like maybe there would be something to call out, but this is how our companies roll all the time and our current administration is even worse. Nothing to see here.

Re: (Score:2)

by XXongo ( 3986865 )

> Correct, the problem is that China is acting more like the US now.

Not according to the article. According to the article, in the postwar era America was an export powerhouse, but used their economic power to raise the manufacturing capability of other nations, allowing them in turn to export to us.

China, on the other han, is buildimg themself to be an export powerhouse, but using their economic power to undermine the manufacturing capability of other nations, and stopping them from exporting to them,

Whats new? (Score:3)

by TheDarkMaster ( 1292526 )

Did the US always grow at the expense of the rest of the world because the US was the "acceptable" option?

Re: (Score:1)

by wyHunter ( 4241347 )

Given our chronic current accounts deficit, probably not, but a lot of our 'growth' was smoke and mirrors that was causing the rest of the world to grow. What a charlie foxtrot economics is.

Re:Whats new? (Score:4, Interesting)

by jacks smirking reven ( 909048 )

By the metrics Goldman is using the answer is no, America's growth helps growth elsewhere because they are leaning on imports as a primary factor and the US has always been the worlds leading importer of goods. We make a lot of money and spend it out in the world, thus economic growth. This kindof speaks to what "acceptable" is getting at, it's China's protectionist policies that have kept it from being acceptable but also they don't really seem to care?

Whether that metric is worthwhile or correct is where the argument could be.

Re: Whats new? (Score:2)

by trenien ( 974611 )

'Make' is appropriate, but the most accurate word would be 'print'.

The only reason th US is where it is right now is because the dollar is still the world currency. It remains so because you need dollars to buy oil.

And the US will fuck up anyone who tries to change the latter.

Re: (Score:2)

by ranton ( 36917 )

No, it was no different with the US. This is an irrelevant story for the whole world outside of the US, because they have been living in this reality for 75+ years. The only nation who is feeling a new pain is the US.

The world is ripping off China (Score:1)

by backslashdot ( 95548 )

What's China to do with its pile of foreign currency? Most countries dont make anything China wants. If anyone's being ripped off it's China. They provide a product people want, in return for what? A piece of colored paper? Well not even that. A database entry of some numbers.

Re:The world is ripping off China (Score:4)

by korgitser ( 1809018 )

China was happy to import all sorts of things, but the US with it's sanctions blunders convinced them that they need to be self-sufficient in everything.

Re: (Score:2)

by Zocalo ( 252965 )

That's a very western-centric view. China imports a large range of products extensively, including western produce and finished goods. Examples include: specialist electrical and mechnical goods, especially for manufacturing their exports and for medical/scientific/power generation use; oil and gas; grain and soy beans; prestige western cars, mostly European; plus significant quantities of various ores, minerals, and other raw materials... They do have a significant trade surplus, but it's nothing like a

Re: (Score:2)

by XXongo ( 3986865 )

so, I take it you didn't read the article, which contradicts what you say. Here is their growth of exports compared to imports: [1]https://img-s-msn-com.akamaize... [akamaized.net]

[1] https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1ROsq0.img

Re: (Score:2)

by backslashdot ( 95548 )

If you owe the bank $5,000 you have a problem. If you owe the bank $5,000,000 it's the bank that has the problem.

Let's get this straight (Score:3)

by r1348 ( 2567295 )

The point to be made here is that the biggest attempt at isolating Chinese economy from the "West", has made China richer and the West poorer.

One could say, we isolated ourselves from China.

Re: (Score:3)

by backslashdot ( 95548 )

The West hasn't gotten poorer by any metric. Home ownership has increased. Air travel has increased (means people have vacations, economic strength). Homicide rate has reduced over the last few decades. Long distance communication is easier and widely available. More people have health insurance. Disease treatments are more widely available. Let me know of a meaningful metric by which you can say we're poorer. You can argue that we may not have progressed as much as we could have, but we haven't digressed o

OOOK (Score:2)

by sikiriki ( 6723224 )

The new anti-China narrative has arrived. Did "overcapacity" not have enough buzz? Virtually every single country in the world behaves like this, it is called competition. As always, those that are bigger have more weight to produce such effect.

What Are You Saying? (Score:2)

by SlashbotAgent ( 6477336 )

What are you saying? That Trump is correct and that other nations need to join and coordinate with U.S. sanctions because they also can't compete against China's manufacturing expertise and slave labor?

Huh!

Trade Imbalance never makes sense. (Score:2)

by gurps_npc ( 621217 )

Someone buys a computer from China. They get a computer.

China gets some money. Used to be a bunch of paper. Now it's a numerical notation in a bank.

Sounds to me like the guy with the computer made out like a bandit and the idiots looking at numerical notations are fools.

Yeah, I know they can trade those numbers for other stuff - that's called undoing the trade imbalance.

So how exactly is China supposed to be benefitting without undoing the trade unbalance?

They can't.

The soldier came knocking upon the queen's door.
He said, "I am not fighting for you any more."
The queen knew she had seen his face someplace before,
And slowly she let him inside.

He said, "I see you now, and you're so very young,
But I've seen more battles lost than I have battles won,
And I have this intuition that it's all for your fun.
And now will you tell me why?"
-- Suzanne Vega, "The Queen and The Soldier"