China's Diesel Trucks Are Shifting To Electric (apnews.com)
- Reference: 0180147369
- News link: https://tech.slashdot.org/story/25/11/19/2256247/chinas-diesel-trucks-are-shifting-to-electric
- Source link: https://apnews.com/article/china-truck-lng-ev-diesel-transport-70f3d612de4b45b6f954a7f557f7f741
> China is [2]replacing its diesel trucks with electric models faster than expected , potentially reshaping global fuel demand and the future of heavy transport. In 2020, nearly all new trucks in China ran on diesel. By the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks accounted for 22% of new heavy truck sales, up from 9.2% in the same period in 2024, according to Commercial Vehicle World, a Beijing-based trucking data provider. The British research firm BMI forecasts electric trucks will reach nearly 46% of new sales this year and 60% next year.
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> China's trucking fleet, the world's second-largest after the U.S., still mainly runs on diesel, but the landscape is shifting. Transport fuel demand is plateauing, according to the International Energy Agency and diesel use in China could decline faster than many expect, said Christopher Doleman, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Electric trucks now outsell LNG models in China, so its demand for fossil fuels could fall, and "in other countries, it might never take off," he said. [...]
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> The share of electrics in new truck sales, from 8% in 2024 to 28% by August 2025, has more than tripled as prices have fallen. Electric trucks outsold LNG-powered vehicles in China for five consecutive months this year, according to Commercial Vehicle World. While electric trucks are two to three times more expensive than diesel ones and cost roughly 18% more than LNG trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower costs can save owners an estimated 10% to 26% over the vehicle's lifetime, according to [3]research by Chinese scientists . "When it comes to heavy trucks, the fleet owners in China are very bottom-line driven," Doleman said.
[1] https://slashdot.org/~ukoda
[2] https://apnews.com/article/china-truck-lng-ev-diesel-transport-70f3d612de4b45b6f954a7f557f7f741
[3] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0973082625000766#aep-article-footnote-id1
Makes sense (Score:3)
China has a lot of large cities, a lot of trucking is probably just inside those areas where an electric truck can really shine and where that lack of emissions really makes a difference.
It's still a huge country and I wonder if they rely on long haul over-the-road trucking as much as the USA does or if they offload a lot of that to rail.
Even more so. (Score:3)
Searched internet, found info:
China, long-haul + shot-haul: ~70%
USA, long-haul + shot-haul: ~72%
China, rail transport: 20-22%
USA, rail transport: ~28%
Even with the long-haul and short-haul numbers combined, it's fairly clear that China is as reliant on long-haul trucking as the USA is. However, given the authoritarian nature of the Chinese government, those numbers could shift.
Re: (Score:2)
Why is doesn't China's rail + short & long haul trucking add up to 100%? Is the other 8% boat/car/airplane? If so how come the US number adds up to 100% ?
Re: (Score:2)
Because interstate marine and air cargo volume is within the margin of error of no volume whatsoever in this country thanks to an extreme overinvestment in aviation and highways and abject neglect of marine and rail transportation infrastructure.
Re: (Score:2)
They do have a massive canal network (portions of it dating back over 1000 years) and a lot of coastal shipping. Whether it would add 8% I would have no idea but it would undoubtedly be larger than in the US.
More Trucks or Replacement (Score:1)
The data supplied doesn't actually support the narrative. Are the new electric trucks replacing a diesel truck or simply adding one additional truck that is electric. Its certainly better than adding a truck that has a lot of emissions. But it doesn't necessarily mean they are reducing emissions.
Re: (Score:2)
These are replacements for sure. Commercial trucks wear out fast, or at least the engines do. Not unlike taxis I guess. Just the shear distance they travel. Electric will have a longevity advantage here.
The question will be, are they all short-haul replacements? If they're long-haul too then that's quite amazing.
Re: (Score:2)
> Commercial trucks wear out fast, or at least the engines do.
AI Tells Me
> A semi-truck can typically last around 750,000 miles with proper maintenance, and some can even reach the million-mile mark. The average semi-truck travels about 45,000 miles per year
It also says the typical over the road driver puts on 100,000 miles per year. (that would be 2000 hours averaging 50 mph which seems reasonable). But the real question is whether demand for trucks is growing faster than the sales of new electric trucks.
Makes sense (Score:3)
Trucks are ideal for last mile operations from the long-distance trains to destination and kinda crap at long distance operations anyway.
Electric Trucker (Score:3)
If you want a picture of how electric trucks can work when there's some infrastructure, watch some of YouTuber "Electric Trucker" videos. He's doing long haul trucking with electric. All across Europe and up to the UK and even to central Turkey. Fascinating. To head off the comments about how the US is so vast compared to Europe I should say this guy drives up to 800 km a day and one of his longest trips was 5000km. So definitely comparable to the longest distances trucks drive in the US. Obviously a difference is the population is more dense so there's more infrastructure. But very interesting and as someone with a commercial license I'm a little jealous of those trucks. Smooth constant power with Regen makes for a great experience.
It's interesting to see how this will work out for lots of places in China.
Re: (Score:2)
Oh and I should add the electric trucks he's driving are the equivalent of our north American class 8 trucks. 40 tonnes GVW (with a few extra tonnes allowed for batteries), so the same as most long-haul box trailer trucks. His trucks are 400-600 kwh depending on the model, and he averages around or just under 1 kwh/km. Charging takes 45 minutes or more, which he does during his mandatory breaks. And often charges overnight. Lots of things I'd never think of such as the fact the fuller the battery the le
Re:Trucks booked as sold? (Score:5, Informative)
No, this is a real thing. One of the first sectors to move heavy equipment to electric was mining, now they have entire mines which are all-electric and mostly-automated. Driving a mining truck or running an excavator is pretty much no-brain work, jobs fit for robots. This guy lives and works in China and writes mostly about the business environment (with occasional digressions). All of his articles are accompanied by lots of links to other reading.
[1]https://kdwalmsley.substack.co... [substack.com]
The mining company deployed a fleet of one hundred fully autonomous electric trucks.
Huawei built a 5.5G network and designed algorithms specifically for open-pit coal mines, with localized maps. As a result, the smart trucks operate at 120% efficiency compared to human operators.
As more intelligent mines come online and electrify, enormous savings in fuel costs will be realized. Diesel fuel typically accounts for up to half of all operating costs for mining operations; mining trucks consume up to 100 liters (30 gallons) of fuel per hours, and overland fuel transport and storage in remote areas drive capital investment needs higher.
[1] https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/chinas-intelligent-mines-are-getting