Polymarket Volume Inflated by 'Artificial' Activity, Study Finds (bloomberg.com)
(Friday November 07, 2025 @11:49AM (msmash)
from the closer-look dept.)
- Reference: 0179994478
- News link: https://tech.slashdot.org/story/25/11/07/1414219/polymarket-volume-inflated-by-artificial-activity-study-finds
- Source link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-07/polymarket-volume-inflated-by-artificial-activity-study-finds
An anonymous reader shares a report:
> The volume of activity on Polymarket, one of the most popular prediction markets, has been [1]significantly inflated by so-called wash trading in which users rapidly buy and sell the same contracts, according to a new study by Columbia University researchers. The "artificial trading," as the authors call it, varied over time but accounted for an average of 25% of all buying and selling on Polymarket over the past three years, the researchers concluded.
>
> The [2]paper , which has not undergone peer review, was posted Thursday on the open-access research platform SSRN. The authors do not suggest that Polymarket itself was responsible for the wash trading, but they point to elements of the exchange's crypto-based structure that make it possible.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-07/polymarket-volume-inflated-by-artificial-activity-study-finds
[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5714122
> The volume of activity on Polymarket, one of the most popular prediction markets, has been [1]significantly inflated by so-called wash trading in which users rapidly buy and sell the same contracts, according to a new study by Columbia University researchers. The "artificial trading," as the authors call it, varied over time but accounted for an average of 25% of all buying and selling on Polymarket over the past three years, the researchers concluded.
>
> The [2]paper , which has not undergone peer review, was posted Thursday on the open-access research platform SSRN. The authors do not suggest that Polymarket itself was responsible for the wash trading, but they point to elements of the exchange's crypto-based structure that make it possible.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-07/polymarket-volume-inflated-by-artificial-activity-study-finds
[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5714122
Hedging Bets? (Score:2)
by RossCWilliams ( 5513152 )
Its not really a market, its just a gambling operation. This may just be people hedging their bets.
Pikachu surprised face? (Score:2)
by just fiddling around ( 636818 )
An off-regulation "market" seeing rampant manipulation? I am shocked! Shocked, I tell you!
They are playing the "we're not a financial market" and "we're not online gambling" at the same time to get out of all regulation, like all good scammers. And like all good scammers, they have buddies scamming the marks/"clients" so their hands stay clean.
Any person dumb enough to put a dollar in there should just go to Vegas instead, at least those guys have to tell you the rules and the odds and then pay out when
WHAAAAAH--? (Score:3)
Bad actors... trying to cheat... at a casino?!!!????
Re: WHAAAAAH--? (Score:2)
Let me get this right.
App that circumvents gambling regulations,
Using crypto,
Gets manipulated by amateurs doing HFT?
Yeah, cry me a fucking river.