News: 0179756624

  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

'Circular' AI Mega-Deals by AI and Hardware Giants are Raising Eyebrows (sfgate.com)

(Saturday October 11, 2025 @04:38PM (EditorDavid) from the round-of-financing dept.)


"Nvidia is investing billions in and selling chips to OpenAI, which is also buying chips from and earning stock in AMD," [1]writes SFGate . "AMD sells processors to Oracle, which is building data centers with OpenAI — which also gets data center work from CoreWeave. And that company is partially owned by, yes, Nvidia.

"Taken together, it's a doozy."

> There are other collaborations and rivalries and many other factors at play, but OpenAI is the many-tentacled octopus in the middle, spinning its achievement of ChatGPT into a blitz of speculative investments. "We are in a phase of the build-out where the entire industry's got to come together and everybody's going to do super well," OpenAI CEO Sam Altman [2]told the Wall Street Journal on Monday . "You'll see this on chips. You'll see this on data centers. You'll see this lower down the supply chain...."

>

> Some worry that the more closely companies intertwine, the more susceptible they are to creating a bubble, or a market not actually supported by real consumer demand. "You don't have to be a skeptic about AI technology's promise in general to see this announcement as a troubling signal about how self-referential the entire space has become," Bespoke Investment Group wrote in a note to clients, [3]per CNBC . "If NVDA has to provide the capital that becomes its revenues in order to maintain growth, the whole ecosystem may be unsustainable..."

>

> Also, even with Nvidia's investment, AMD's shares and OpenAI's repeated fundraises, the ChatGPT-maker doesn't have the cash to meet all of these vast commitments. And if OpenAI's soaring projections about demand for AI computing don't bear out, there will be a lot of committed money — and a large share of the stock market — that would see its foundations topple.

Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader [4]mspohr for sharing the news.



[1] https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/circular-deals-bay-area-tech-21089538.php

[2] https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-amd-deal-ai-chips-ed92cc42?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/28/a-look-at-openais-tangled-web-of-dealmaking.html

[4] https://slashdot.org/~mspohr



Blowing up the Bubble! (Score:4, Insightful)

by oldgraybeard ( 2939809 )

making a bigger bang when things go pop!

Re: (Score:3)

by linear a ( 584575 )

Too big to pop!

Re: (Score:2)

by trip23 ( 727132 )

Win some lose some! Or sum it up - some investment will get you a bazillon of coins.

Investing not vendor financing (Score:4, Interesting)

by klipclop ( 6724090 )

I would argue this not circular deals. Nvidia has an interest in supporting the AI and AGI research and development. The amounts of money they are investing are barely rounding errors too. If AGI happens, then this will unlock trillions for all these companions for just billions in investment... I remember when Nortel was doing vendor financing for all these deadbeat companies to buy their equipment. It ruined them because they were trying to artificially boost their stock price, and not investing in those companies to help try and support progress.

There's nothing left (Score:3)

by xack ( 5304745 )

They've already ripped off the entire internet's content already, so all they can do is hallucinate new knowledge without human validation. We already seen tumbles in the markets the last few days, our economy is rapidly facing the "we ate everything" scenario where the only way out is economic cannibalism. Expect a lot of ewaste and polluted water from this bubble bursting.

Hmm... (Score:2)

by fahrbot-bot ( 874524 )

> 'Circular' AI Mega-Deals by AI and Hardware Giants are Raising Eyebrows

Given who owns/runs these companies, I'm thinking "Jerks in a circle" -- but... it seems a bit wordy. :-)

Consumer demand? (Score:2)

by bazorg ( 911295 )

> Some worry that the more closely companies intertwine, the more susceptible they are to creating a bubble, or a market not actually supported by real consumer demand

Do investors count as consumers? All I see is Doctorow's trend of enshitification, justifying the removal as many employees as possible until real consumers are paying real money and getting self-service in return.

Nvidia vs. AMD, bloodbath (Score:3)

by larryjoe ( 135075 )

"If NVDA has to provide the capital that becomes its revenues in order to maintain growth, the whole ecosystem may be unsustainable"

Lucent did this in the late 90s, covering up their ruse with clever accounting that wasn't so clever when it was discovered. This tanked the company and the stock. However, what Lucent did is more like AMD's recent deal rather than what Nvidia's deal with OpenAI. Neither Lucent nor AMD did quid pro quo deals but rather a large outright gift to the customer just so they could technically record a large sale. Nvidia's deals are also geared towards pushing sales. However, instead of giving away NVDA shares, they are receiving OpenAI shares, more like a quid pro quo.

"We are in a phase of the build-out where the entire industry's got to come together and everybody's going to do super well," OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told the Wall Street Journal on Monday.

This makes no sense. There is no emerging market where "everybody's going to do super well." That's always a lie. There will be a bloodbath, which has been true of every single emerging market ever. Most players today will fail. Only a few will eventually remain, and they will be the only ones that will do "super well."

OpenAI is way behind its main competitors (the hyperscalars) because it loses money and has no cash flow cow. OpenAI is likely one of the ones that will fail unless there is a significant paradigm change.

Remember marchFIRST? (Score:1)

by supabeast! ( 84658 )

Those of us who were around for the web 1.0 boom should remember marchFIRST. It was the dotcom enabler with its own VC arm. marchFIRST would get investors to give it money that it invested in startups. Then the startups would use the money to pay marchFIRST for branding services. And web design services. Then backend development. Followed by hosting. Then marchFIRST started over with another bullshit startup. And everybody at marchFIRST was getting bonkers salaries, free lunches, and playing pool at the off

That's cool. Whatever. (Score:2)

by Petersko ( 564140 )

I long ago gave up trying to understand crypto. And If I just don't understand something, I don't invest in it. So this is all just mildly interesting noise.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - Keynes

Put no trust in cryptic comments.