India's Got Time (indiadispatch.com)
- Reference: 0178773486
- News link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/25/08/19/2356238/indias-got-time
- Source link: https://indiadispatch.com/p/india-has-time
> The strongest case for India is not merely that it is young, but that it still has time, and it may be the only continental-scale economy that still has it in abundance.
India won't cross the demographic threshold for an "old" country -- a median age of 41 -- [2]until the late 2050s , while China reaches that point now. India requires 10.4% sustained GDP growth over 35 years to become rich before aging, compared to China's needed 32% annual growth rate. India's working-age population will increase from 67.5% in 2021 to 69.2% by 2031, with the median age remaining at 34.5 in 2036. The report adds:
> China's compressed dilemma mirrors what is gripping the developed world, where Europe's share of population over 65 is on track to hit 30% by 2050, up from 8% in 1950. Raising retirement ages -- what economists describe as the closest thing to a silver bullet -- faces older voting blocs, who now make up roughly 40% of those who turn up at the polls in European elections. In the U.S., what J.P. Morgan analysts term a "Social Security cliff" looms by 2033, when the system's trust funds are projected to be exhausted, and hopes that productivity miracles (powered by, hopefully AI) will quietly square this circle look optimistic, leaving much of the rich world and North Asia out of time.
[1] https://indiadispatch.com/p/india-has-time
[2] https://indiadispatch.com/p/india-has-time
I gotta say (Score:2)
> In the U.S., what J.P. Morgan analysts term a "Social Security cliff" looms by 2033, when the system's trust funds are projected to be exhausted ...
It sure was the perfect time to raise the US projected debt by $3 trillion in order to give billionaires a large tax break.
It's also more right-wing propaganda (Score:2)
That trust fund they're talking about is specifically created for the large bubble of baby boomers it's supposed to go bankrupt.
None of this matters since Trump is probably going to win a third term and the chuckle fucks around here Will celebrate it until they find out what it actually means. Then they'll blame Obama from the McDonald's whose bathroom they use to wash themselves after losing their houses to a bank.
Re: (Score:2)
Well, I dont think Trump can win a third term, firstly because its blatantly constititonal to the point that even the weird old vampires in the supreme court couldn't find him a loop-hole, and secondly because I geninuely suspect by the end of this four years nobody is going to be in much of a mood to forgive the republicans for a very long term. And shit, the dudes so infirm and unhealthy, I'd be unsurprised iif he simply doesnt live that long.
Well, unless they completely steal it , and we get president co
The subContinent has time (Score:3)
The people not so much
before it becomes uninhabitable due to climate change
Re: (Score:3)
This. According to current estimates, somewhere between 2050~2100 India will become so hot and humid that a human stuck unprotected outdoors might ordinarily suffer a wet-bulb heat death. It would become like a reverse Alaska, where for most of the year survival means living inside of cooled and dehumidified buildings. Unfortunately unlike for cold, you can't deal with potentially deadly levels of extreme heat just by adding insulation, something like a spacesuit with a powered cooling system would be neede
I remember the coming Age of Leisure (Score:3)
The chat shows and newspapers were full of it - what will we do with all our spare time with 40 years of retirement ahead of us? Those stories ended when the Cold War ended. From then on it was all about working until we drop.
Inflation (Score:2)
Why is a pound of rice (or any food, really) 4x cheaper in Asia than in the US?
I'll tell you why .. it's because we fucked ourselves on housing by mass blocking every developer from building new homes. Reference: [1]https://www.newsweek.com/san-f... [newsweek.com] That in turn caused inflation. Housing became people's biggest expense. We don't want new housing units in our neighborhoods and cities. So we blocked them. The end result: Housing in most places that have jobs has become unaffordable to most people. The only solu
[1] https://www.newsweek.com/san-francisco-only-agreed-build-16-homes-this-year-1907831
Re: (Score:2)
I'm guessing that's not really true since I'm in Asia and I see rice imported from USA in the supermarkets here.
Re: (Score:2)
> GOOD - the purpose of this money was to pay the boomer social security bills. It was not supposed to be this giant pot of money lasting until the second coming of Christ that politicians could steal. Once the trust fund is used up, we can decide if we'd prefer to reduce social security benefits or to increase the FICA tax, either way it will be a pay-as-you-go-system as it was supposed to be in the first place.
WTF are you talking about?? Social Security in the USA was created during the great depression to ensure those that either 1) had no other means or 2) paid in go their due. Please read up about the history before you just spout bullshit. It is NOT a trust fund. It is NOT a pay-as-you-go-system (nor was it ever meant to be), it is a social safety net and pension for those who do not have another way of doing so.
If you think somehow America Will Be Great Again if we get rid of social security then you hav
India has a lot of things (Score:4, Insightful)
I have had to deal with people from India for many years. Here's my analysis: the caste system there is still very strong. So what you get is educated people with a sense of entitlement and arrogance matched only (in many cases, but definitely not all) with utter incompetence. Mostly, it's people from the top caste who get the opportunities, and these are the people I have had to deal with. Individual Indian people may do well, but when you take somebody competent and ask them to deal with an upper caste "engineer", the only way it works is if you can find a way to work around the fucker.
I want to be very clear...this is not a one-off. I've had to deal with these people in situations where there was money on the line (and in one case, lives), and the only answer was to go over their heads and get somebody competent to get the work done.
Re: (Score:2)
I think you've misanalysed the situation. India's upper caste can be incredibly competent, but what they entire country is, is culturally task driven. People have a task, not a job. They do the task as defined, they don't have a tendency to think outside the box, come up with solutions, question others (and this makes it very difficult for us westerners to work with them).
Example from a few weeks ago: Security at our office. The guy's task was to put the bags through the xray machine. He didn't do the job o
Unemployment numbers don't lie (Score:2)
Everyone keeps complaining about worker shortages and replacement rates and all that, but then why are the unemployment rates so high? Why is it so hard to get a job? Why is OnlyFans considered a legit career path by kids?
This is a problem all over the world
The bad case with India is... (Score:1)
... that it has nothing else, except a large and extremely poor population that proliferates at an astonishing rate, compounding the other problems of the country.
Re:On the contrary (Score:4, Informative)
Nonsense. Its not "radical islamic snake in the grass" running india into the ground, its radicalized hindu nationalists burning the country to the ground, and its been that way for a very long time.
Fascists poison everything.