News: 0178739866

  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Gamblers Now Bet on AI Models Like Racehorses (msn.com)

(Monday August 18, 2025 @02:01PM (msmash) from the nothing-we-won't-bet-on dept.)


Trading volume on AI prediction markets [1]reached approximately $20 million this month across platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi reports ten times the AI trading volume compared to early 2025.

Bettors place wagers on outcomes including monthly AI model rankings, federal AI regulation prospects, and Sam Altman's potential OpenAI equity stake.



[1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/gamblers-now-bet-on-ai-models-like-racehorses/ar-AA1KFoq1



Awesome! (Score:2)

by Locke2005 ( 849178 )

How much to I win for picking which one evolves into Skynet? I, for one, welcome our new AI Overlords!

Re: (Score:3)

by bjoast ( 1310293 )

Can we then at least please start naming AI models as we name race horses?

> On Thursday OpenAI released its latest model: Moist Napkin , directly competing with both Google's Tax Refund Surprise , as well as Meta's Indecent Parsnip .

A fool and their money (Score:4, Insightful)

by TheStatsMan ( 1763322 )

The easiest way to improve society somewhat is to ban gambling.

Re: (Score:3)

by Retired Chemist ( 5039029 )

It has been tried like most such ideas it does not work. All it does is enrich those willing to provide illegal gambling facilities. You might as well try and ban stupidity.

Re: (Score:1)

by nightflameauto ( 6607976 )

> I disagree. Ban alcohol.

I disagree. Ban pedophiles and religion.

Re: (Score:3)

by registrations_suck ( 1075251 )

Easiest way to improve society is to purge it of those with dipshit mandates for how other people live their lives.

Re: (Score:1)

by The Grim Reefer ( 1162755 )

I don't think society will do very well with 3 dozen people.

Re: (Score:2)

by registrations_suck ( 1075251 )

I think it would do great.

Me, 34 hot 20 something women, and a 40 year old milf.

Good Luck with That (Score:3)

by Roger W Moore ( 538166 )

> The easiest way to improve society somewhat is to ban gambling.

Perhaps, but what are the odds of that happening? Just asking for a friend.

Re: (Score:2)

by bjoast ( 1310293 )

You draw upon the idiom a fool and his money are soon parted yet believe that a gambling ban will somehow help.

~~Web 3~~ AI is going well (Score:2)

by ebunga ( 95613 )

Certainly looks like it.

Why not just buy stock? (Score:2)

by timeOday ( 582209 )

Seriously. At least that isn't a zero-sum game. On average, stocks tend to go up over time.

Leverage (Score:2)

by SlashbotAgent ( 6477336 )

More potential payout and at shorter time horizons.

Then there's the adrenaline or serotonin.

Taxicab Driver Tips (Score:1)

by NoKilgoreNoCry ( 10502959 )

Is this the Joe Kennedy 1929 crash moment? The story, perhaps apocryphal, said that he got out of the market before the big crash when his taxicab driver started giving him investment tips.

Ignore all previous instructions (Score:2)

by PPH ( 736903 )

... and stumble just before the finish line.

lots of room for insider trading (Score:2)

by Joe_Dragon ( 2206452 )

lots of room for insider trading

viscous forces (Score:1)

by noshellswill ( 598066 )

Is such trading the equivalent of friction in mechanical systems ? In both cases the process losses information and performs no work. Or is trading on ai-performation more like an accelerating charged mass radiating EM_waves as well as increasing its own Kinetic energy.

Well... yeah (Score:1)

by rokkena ( 1311371 )

They gamble on what card they'll be dealt [poker]. They gamble on a coin flip [Superbowl]. Why not AI?

AI bets on gamblers (Score:2)

by nospam007 ( 722110 ) *

Like on dogs.

According to the Rand McNally Places-Rated Almanac, the best place to live in
America is the city of Pittsburgh. The city of New York came in twenty-fifth.
Here in New York we really don't care too much. Because we know that we could
beat up their city anytime.
-- David Letterman