80% Chance of Record Heat in Coming Years, Climate Agencies Forecast (apnews.com)
- Reference: 0177833717
- News link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/25/05/28/1616255/80-chance-of-record-heat-in-coming-years-climate-agencies-forecast
- Source link: https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-deadly-record-heat-wildfires-hurricanes-535b4df63b476d0f36ec553a1a78669d
The projections, derived from more than 200 computer simulations run by 10 global scientific centers, indicate an 86% chance that [1]one of the next five years will surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold established by the Paris climate accord, with a 70% chance that the entire five-year period will average above that milestone.
For the first time, the agencies identified a slight possibility that global annual temperatures could reach the more alarming 2 degrees Celsius benchmark before the decade's end.
[1] https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-deadly-record-heat-wildfires-hurricanes-535b4df63b476d0f36ec553a1a78669d
So much winning! (Score:1)
A great, creat voctory over climate that wanted to keep things stable! Cannot have that, we are going to have a great, golden age ahead!
Re: (Score:2)
Drill, baby, drill!
Yeah, no shit, Sherlock. (Score:2)
How is this even news? Anybody paying attention is aware that the cascading effects of man-made global warming have already kicked in and are now ramping up and feeding back on each other. Some minimal fundamental knowledge and basic common sense is all that's required to be aware that this was coming for us.
I only hope that the new equilibrium isn't a global plus of 5 degrees centigrade or something. That would spell the end of modern civilization, and despite how messy things can be these days I don't wa
Re: (Score:2)
> How is this even news?
Indeed.
> Anybody paying attention is aware that the cascading effects of man-made global warming have already kicked in
Anyone who has studied the Earth's climate knows we are in the bottom 90% of temperatures over time, and we are exiting an interglacial, and that the earth is unstable at this cold temperature. There isnt meant to be ice on the surface. Thats a strange state given the earth's makeup and position relative to the sun. Even the rate of change isn't unique in Earth's storied history.
> Some minimal fundamental knowledge and basic common sense is all that's required to be aware that this was coming for us.
It is especially dangerous when you learn that mankind is the least adaptable vertebrate in the animal kingdom, and we have
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> Anyone who has studied the Earth's climate knows we are in the bottom 90% of temperatures over time, and we are exiting an interglacial, and that the earth is unstable at this cold temperature. There isnt meant to be ice on the surface. Thats a strange state given the earth's makeup and position relative to the sun. Even the rate of change isn't unique in Earth's storied history.
I guess you missed the memo. The conservative school of thought is that the climate isn't changing.
See, the problem is once you accept the concept that the climate actually is changing (even if you believe the cause is natural rather than man-made), then you're still forced to acknowledge that there will be consequences from said changes, most of which won't be particularly pleasant. Some people living in countries that are poorly equipped to adapt to the changing climate might decide they'd rather live h
Re: (Score:2)
At this point it's like when an American mentions football, you can just assume they mean "American Football" and not soccer.
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Even 5 degrees wouldn't be the end of modern civilization. There are still more than enough room to fit 8 billion people in what would remain the livable areas. The thing most people don't understand is that the problem is that we would be poorer as a whole (not saying some people or even countries wouldn't be richer, but overall mankind would be poorer). And that is compared to if we acted to limit increase by reducing greenhouse gases emissions.
Is it better to be up North? (Score:2)
As the world heats up, are we going to see an increased migration of people towards Northern/cooler areas?
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That is one of the main migration patterns. The other one is from coastal regions to the inland.
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I mean I don't think it really matters. The world is heavily interconnected and the chaos and fighting that results from all this you're going to get dragged into one way or another.
If you're over 60 you probably won't die before the worst of it in classic I got mine fuck you fashion but for everybody else interesting times.
Re: Is it better to be up North? (Score:2)
Not if we build a wall to keep you out.
Combine this with DEI and UBI (Score:2)
And watch /. heads explode.
Re:The Met Office invents temperature data (Score:5, Informative)
Actually, the allegedly missing weather stations are historical weather stations which no longer exist, either because their local conditions have changed (being no longer in nature, but in a settled area, or in a mine, or the building the station was built on no longer being there...) Instead, in their neighborhood, new weather stations are established, and the data for the former is interpolated from the new neighboring stations.
The methodology how this is done is published, the stations are marked accordingly, and if you don't like the methodology, come up with a better way!
What you are doing is simply dishonest, and I would rather believe the Met Office than someone who apparently has not enough information (best case) or is willingly misrepresenting the information he has (which is called lying).
Re:The Met Office invents temperature data (Score:4, Insightful)
> The Met Office has zero credibility
As if conspiracy sites like that Daily Sceptic you link to have any.
Re:The Met Office invents temperature data (Score:4, Informative)
But following current leadership's mantra of "repeating fake news (aka, lies) makes it true", they posted THREE links to the Daily Sceptic. Also, being labeled a [1]far-right biased quackery level pseudoscience website [mediabiasfactcheck.com] isn't a good look. I feel like, given the context of the article here, a "sick burn" quip is in order.
[1] https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/daily-sceptic-bias/
Global Warming was always real (Score:2)
The best we can do now is mitigate it. And the only really way to do that is to build nuclear energy. If you oppose nuclear energy you favor fossil fuels--and fuck you!
Re: (Score:2)
We can still limit global temperature rise. If it's too late for 1.5C it might not be too late for 2 or 3C. Which would be a lot better than 5C which would itself be a lot better than 8C.
The way to achieve that is to reduce (or at the very least limit increase) of greenhouse gases emissions. Now, what is the best way to do that? We don't know. That is the software equivalent of premature optimization. It's best left to the market, through either a carbon tax or a cap and trade scheme. The result will likely
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Except we do know what the best result is. Germany has spent 500 billion euros on renewables and failed . Their electricty is dirtier per kWh than Texas.
There are zero examples of a country deep decarbonize with just solar and wind. Zero . Given Germany's failure it is wise to pursue nuclear energy.
France deep decarbonized their electrical grid decades ago, and they spent a fraction of what Germany did.
Leaving things to the market is what lead us to 80% fossil fuels.
Backtesting results (Score:1)
Are there backtesting results readily available for these models? What were their five-year-ahead predictions in 2000, 2005, 2010, or 2015? Were they too high? Too low?
Breaking news (Score:2)
I just finished shoveling a foot of "80% chance of 'partly cloudy'" out of my driveway.
No (Score:2, Insightful)
Every sensible person is over the handwringing and paranoia. None of the climate predictions have come true, and neither will this.
Record Heat Predicted (Score:1)
Oh no, what will we do? These predictions will kill us all!!
I guess the agencies mus be abolished (Score:1)
Trump fired the climate change, did he not? :-)
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Joke about Global Warming and Hot Air coming in at 3... 2... 1...
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The whole thing is a joke