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  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

Air Conditioning, Not Data Centers, Driving Global Energy Demand Growth (technologyreview.com)

(Thursday April 03, 2025 @11:30PM (msmash) from the closer-look dept.)


Air conditioning will [1]contribute more to rising global energy demand than data centers through 2030, according to an International Energy Agency. While attention has focused on computing power consumption, the IEA projects data centers will account for less than 10% of increased energy demand by 2030, significantly less than space cooling requirements. Global cooling degree days, a measure of air conditioning need, were 6% higher in 2024 than 2023 and 20% above the long-term average for the first two decades of the century.

China, India and the United States saw particularly sharp increases. Air conditioning represented 7% of global electricity consumption in 2022, with some U.S. regions reporting that cooling can comprise over 70% of residential energy use during peak periods. The number of air conditioning units worldwide could nearly triple from fewer than 2 billion in 2016 to approximately 6 billion by 2050, creating a growing challenge for power grids.



[1] https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/04/03/1114182/air-conditioning-demand/



Vicious cycle (Score:2)

by backslashdot ( 95548 )

People don't care about their future self.

Re: (Score:2)

by thegarbz ( 1787294 )

Their future selves will be fine, it's their future offspring that will bare the brunt of the decisions of this generation.

Re: (Score:2)

by h33t l4x0r ( 4107715 )

And my future offspring will already have enough problems, what with having to murder my current offspring for any chance of an inheritance.

Re: (Score:3)

by jhoegl ( 638955 )

I guess...

First off, this report is missing the changes that are being quickly adopted by homeowners, heat pumps are changing the power used.

Second, computers need AC, so this is weird shit.

Third, the assumption that power from renewables isnt increasing (it is), that is being made by these two debbie downers above me, is weird.

Re: (Score:2)

by Kernel Kurtz ( 182424 )

Unlike money spent on mitigation, money spent on adaptation brings instant benefit.

Re: Vicious cycle (Score:2)

by javaman235 ( 461502 )

Somebody needs to design a highly insulated canopy bed type enclosure that will run on a few hundred watts, cool the outer room to 90, bed up 65. People would save a fortune.

Re: (Score:1)

by MacMann ( 7518492 )

> People don't care about their future self.

If that were true then nobody would attend university for the opportunity for a higher paying job in the future. If true then nobody would invest in a retirement account, presumably not caring that their future self would likely live a short and painful life for not having food, shelter, and medical care as they reach their twilight years. They may have so little care of the future that they don't bother with buying air conditioning since right now, for much of the northern hemisphere, the weather is stil

If I had a nickle ... (Score:2)

by OrangeTide ( 124937 )

If I had a nickle every time I wished I could go back in time and kick my own ass.

AC vs PC ? Or AC + PC ? (Score:3)

by AncalagonTotof ( 1025748 )

What about the air conditioning of data centers ?

Re: (Score:2)

by jbengt ( 874751 )

Exactly.

Every Data Center needs HVAC (averaging about 40% of Data Centers' energy use), as well as most other new construction. So it's no surprise that A/C electrical use is growing faster than Data Center electrical use.

POWER FACTOR (Score:1)

by gavron ( 1300111 )

TL;DR: It's not PC and it's not AC. Let's talk energy and then HVAC.

If you live in the United States and are in a residential spot, none of this really matters. I'll explain but don't want to bore people who don't care, yet read these responses and are insulting. Insult away.

E

Energy:

So anything that "does work" be it mechanical, electronic, phase-change (think ice machine), etc. means that energy is being used. It doesn't matter what form that energy comes in as (usually electric) and energy goes out (u

Re: (Score:2)

by dfghjk ( 711126 )

That's exactly right. Of course energy consumption by the entire population will be greater than by the entitled wealthy, that's doesn't mean we shouldn't be offended by the wastefulness of billionaires.

Fair is fair? (Score:2)

by SlashTex ( 10502574 )

A large part of this is 2nd (and 3rd) world raising their living conditions. Almost inescapable.

Time to focus on new A/C tech? (Score:4, Interesting)

by ctilsie242 ( 4841247 )

There is an old [1]video [youtube.com] on YouTube about using a combination of phase changes and desiccant to get the COP (Coefficient of performance) up there, or at least be able to have energy available from a different source (like solar concentrators) to power the refrigerant cycle.

A/Cs have economies of scale. Perhaps consider water chilling, which allows two (for redundancy) coolers to be used for an entire campus, as opposed to A/C units for everything. Couple that with CRACs, so 2n+1 redundancy is maintained, and this can help greatly with energy costs.

Then, perhaps passive means. White rooftops or solar panels can do a lot to deal with heat. Solar panels, assuming the ones that are using a frame, have some dead air space between the panel and the roof, so the only way it can conduct heat is via the mounts, IIRC, lowering temperatures by ~5 degrees.

Solid state refrigerants are useful as well, just because it means fewer moving parts.

Overall, there are a lot of technologies waiting in the wings to make A/C a lot less energy demanding, it just needs people with deep pockets to finance it.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_g4nT4a28U&t=8s

Re: (Score:3)

by Firethorn ( 177587 )

I think ctilsie242 was plenty focused on practical thermodynamics.

1. Using dessicant instead: dehumidification via HVAC is energy expensive. It involves cooling the moisture down to the dew point, condensing it, which also means moving the latent heat to actually condense it. Comparatively, a dessicant system using something like silica beads can be almost energy free if you use heat from the evaporator coils to regenerate them because you avoid the phase and temperature changes that actively cost energy

Yeah (Score:2)

by PPH ( 736903 )

Pacific Northwest (west side of the mountains). We really don't need AC here. On a few days, it would be nice. But we can get by without it.

So now the greenies* are trying to ban gas heat. Nooo! Gas is bad! Get a heat pump. So much more efficient. But given our energy rates, heat pumps are just barely a break even with gas heat. But hey, good for the environment. Except that our utility sells both gas and electricity. And they make a hell of a lot more on the electricity, which they generate with gas turbi

Re: (Score:2)

by dfghjk ( 711126 )

A punitive tax on "gas heat" would solve your problem, heat pumps would then be far better than "barely a break even".

Capitalism will not solve the destruction of the commons, it's what causes it. You need to understand that. It's not a conspiracy to get you to use air conditioning, you moron.

Re: (Score:2)

by PPH ( 736903 )

> A punitive tax on "gas heat" would solve your problem,

I don't have a problem. Make me switch to a heat pump and the gas will still get burned. Just by the power company so they can sell me electricity.

> You need to understand that. It's not a conspiracy to get you to use air conditioning, you moron.

Yes it is, you PSE shill. The commons still gets destroyed. But your employer makes a few extra bucks along the way.

Re: (Score:1)

by MacMann ( 7518492 )

> A punitive tax on "gas heat" would solve your problem, heat pumps would then be far better than "barely a break even".

You do know that heat pumps are air conditioners? And air conditioners are heat pumps?

If you punish people for natural gas heat on the fringes of areas where air conditioning could be desirable then that means more people buying heat pumps to stay warm in the winter and then using that heat pump to cool their domicile in summer because the equipment is a sunk cost and electricity for cooling is cheap.

If anyone proposes somehow making electricity expensive to discourage cooling their domicile insummer then

Re: (Score:3)

by Xenx ( 2211586 )

> Pacific Northwest (west side of the mountains). We really don't need AC here.

I might use a loose definition of need, but I only wish that was true. My house gets basically zero shade from sunrise to sunset. Most everywhere I lived had at least some shade and wasn't near as bad. My garage peaks above 100F, with it usually sitting in the mid 90's, during the summer. My living room, windows open and no AC, usually runs 20-30F above outside. That means mid 80's most of the time and well into the 90's during the peaks. Even then, we used to be able to manage the summers better. We'd just

Re: (Score:1)

by MacMann ( 7518492 )

> Even then, we used to be able to manage the summers better. We'd just have to leave the house for a couple hours on the worst days. The last few years have been worse.

While growing up on the family farm I can recall on hot summer evenings Dad would have us all pile into the Buick for a sight seeing drive. Trips to the local swimming pool was how we'd cool off on hot summer days. The house didn't have air conditioning at the time but the Buick did so we did a lot of sightseeing from the car to keep cool.

This makes me wonder how people managed summer heat at the old farmhouse before cars had air conditioning, and there was no swimming pool in the nearest town. I'd guess

Re: (Score:2)

by pixelpusher220 ( 529617 )

Low nat gas prices are due to the tax subsidies oil companies receive, and of course not having to pay to clean up their pollution and its effects like climate change.

But it's a real barrier to heat pumps for regular folks. We're in VA and same issue here. Probably $20K to switch to a heat pump, but basically no change in operating costs. ROI return is basically Infinity.

Re: (Score:2)

by Mspangler ( 770054 )

Pacific Northwest (East side of the mountains).

The dichotomy is here too. I do have a heat pump and backup resistors as there is no natural gas service here. Propane is possible but expensive.

The Heat pump goes into heating mode in October and stays there until May. Last frost is taken as Mother's Day for planting purposes. First frost is variable, earliest was Sept 23 and latest was Nov 2 since I've been here.

Last year cooling mode was used for part of 22 days, typically from 3 to 8 PM. Occasionally 2 to 9

See bro? Let us build our AI data centers (Score:2)

by ebunga ( 95613 )

I mean sure, each one we build uses as much power as your entire state, but trust us bro, it's your air conditioning that's the problem. Not our data center that uses more power than the rest of your state. We're building 8 of them because nobody said we can't.

Re: (Score:2)

by dfghjk ( 711126 )

The beauty is that data center usage can be solved by building dedicated nuclear reactors while air conditioning use can be solved by destroying health care and the social safety net. The savings from canceling critical care for the disadvantaged can pay for the reactors, win win!

Re: (Score:2)

by h33t l4x0r ( 4107715 )

Just drop a solar farm next door to it, problem solved.

I guess they're technically correct (Score:2)

by Smidge204 ( 605297 )

[1]The data center cooling systems are also relatively inefficient and consume about 70% of the total energy used in a data center. [cc-techgroup.com]

So is the cooling necessary for data centers included in the data center part, or the AC part?

I was not able to confirm the "2,100 TWh" used for space cooling from the IEA link or any of the links from that page. This number is basically the linchpin of their entire premise so it'd be nice to actually find out where it comes from.

I'd also be interested to know how much of the "AC"

[1] https://cc-techgroup.com/data-center-energy-consumption/

Re: (Score:2)

by Mspangler ( 770054 )

"I'd also be interested to know how much of the "AC" they refer to is actually in the form of heat pumps, which have a net reduction in annual emissions because they displace local fossil fuel burning and/or inefficient electric resistance heat with grid power"

If the peak electrical load is in summer the heat pumps are not a solution. If the peak load is in winter they might be at least until the CoP drops so low the resistors cut in anyway.

Peak winter load here is about 11 GW, summer maybe 6 GW. Currently

AC (Score:2)

by JSG ( 82708 )

I recently visited FL for a couple of weeks. The good Lord granted a massive swamp .. a concrete base with grassy islands! FL has a lovely climate (apart from the hurricanes n that) and FL man deployed air conn with the ability to freeze air.

Cold dry air is not healthy - humans are used to atmospheric humidity - we are largely wetish breathing beasts. Temperature range from -20C to +40C is quite easily manageable if coupled with suitable humidity. Cold, dry, SHARED air is really crap. Now you have sh

At least A/C Aligns Better with Solar Power (Score:2)

by jaa101 ( 627731 )

as compared to data centres The biggest demand for cooling is mostly going to coincide with sunny days when solar power should be plentiful. The match isn't perfect---there are plenty of hot evenings after the sun has gone down---but it's better than data centres which tend to power on 24/7 to pay for all that expensive IT hardware ASAP.

The difficulty and expense with renewable energy is the storage needed to align generation with demand. Solar panels are dirt cheap but grid-scale batteries and pumped hy

Not every question deserves an answer.