Was Undersea Cable Sabotage Part of a Larger Pattern? (apnews.com)
- Reference: 0176792511
- News link: https://yro.slashdot.org/story/25/03/22/1821200/was-undersea-cable-sabotage-part-of-a-larger-pattern
- Source link: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-europe-hybrid-campaign-d61887dd3ec6151adf354c5bd3e6273e
That includes cyberattacks and committing acts of sabotage/vandalism/arson, as well as spreading propaganda and even plotting killings, according to the article. ("Western intelligence agencies uncovered [3]what they said was a Russian plot to kill the head of a major German arms manufacturer that is a supplier of weapons to Ukraine...") The news agency documented 59 incidents "in which European governments, prosecutors, intelligence services or other Western officials blamed Russia, groups linked to Russia or its ally Belarus."
> [Western officials] allege the disruption campaign is an extension of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war, intended to sow division in European societies and undermine support for Ukraine... The incidents range from stuffing car tailpipes with expanding foam in Germany to a plot to [4]plant explosives on cargo planes . They include setting fire to stores and a museum, hacking that targeted politicians and critical infrastructure, and spying by a ring convicted in the U.K. Richard Moore, the head of Britain's foreign intelligence service, [5]called it a "staggeringly reckless campaign " in November...
>
> The cases are varied, and the largest concentrations are in countries that are major supporters of Ukraine... In about a quarter of the cases, prosecutors have brought charges or courts have [6]convicted people of carrying out the sabotage. But in many more, no specific culprit has been publicly identified or brought to justice.
Despite that, "more and more governments are publicly attributing attacks to Russia," the article points out.
This week a nonprofit, bipartisan think tank on global policy [7]released a report which "found that Russian attacks in Europe quadrupled from 2022 to 2023 and then tripled again from 2023 to 2024," [8]reports the New York Times .
> Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland noted in a social media post on Monday that Lithuanian officials had confirmed his assessment that Russia was responsible for a series of fires in shopping centers in Warsaw and Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital...
[1] https://tech.slashdot.org/story/25/03/05/1928223/europe-on-alert-over-suspected-sabotage-of-undersea-cables
[2] https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-europe-hybrid-campaign-d61887dd3ec6151adf354c5bd3e6273e
[3] https://apnews.com/article/germany-russia-threats-report-rheinmetall-plot-2cee42e9f9f6940eb960b0b052e3e670
[4] https://apnews.com/article/russia-poland-germany-sabotage-cargo-planes-b7f559805d7a996dd6aabe8e69041607
[5] https://apnews.com/article/uk-france-intelligence-mi6-dgse-russia-ukraine-6f4d41f0c4859b9127316c762561d7e7
[6] https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/man-admits-torching-ukraine-linked-business-uk-taking-pay-foreign-intelligence-2024-11-22/
[7] https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-shadow-war-against-west
[8] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/us/politics/russia-sabotage-attacks-europe-ukraine.html
This is happening since 2014 if not 2008 ... (Score:3)
At least since 2014 there is increase in internet activity - trolling. propaganda bots, voters manipulation, ransomware etc. etc..
Gradually it shifted from the internet to real world...
YES! (Score:2)
There are 2-4 undersea cables cut by boats every week somewhere around the world. Its definitely a pattern.
Oh, you think? (Score:2)
Captain Obvious strikes again!
Probably (Score:2)
But what can you realistically do about it, other than build redundancies, monitor the area, and plan for the worst?
10 Years ago. (Score:2)
To quote a senior person within a western intelligence agency, "If the things happening on the internet were happening in the physical world, it would be a shooting war".
That was 10 years ago. It hasn't got better since. Quite the opposite.
It's naive to go around thinking there isn't a number of groups of governments engaging in a protracted and coordinated cyber war. The criminals are at it too and there is much overlap between the two.
What would it take to generate a response? (Score:3)
In my strategic studies discussion group, we've talked about "If Putin ramps up sabotage, information operations, political mistrust, cyber attacks, etc, etc; what would it take for Europe or 'the West' to actually respond? Or will Putin continue to 'boil the frog,' continuing actions at a rate that never quite reaches the level of mobilizing governments and populations to take action in response?"
If you look back 10 years, you can see 'mysterious explosions' at ammunition plants, attacks on dissidents, influence operations, funding of extremist groups, etc. The recent activities against telecom cables are relatively new, but most of the rest of the stuff in this playbook have been going on for quite a while.
In one sense, the actions by Trump to change the US position on Russia and Ukraine, and particularly on European Defense, are forcing the European Community and Europe in general (even Ireland :-) ) to start looking very hard at their individual and collective defense postures. That might well work against Russia in the long run, even if it looks like it's supporting Russia in the short run.
My college classmate (who taught mil history at West Point) has been saying for the last 5 years, "We are in the opening stages of World War III. If you don't believe this, you haven't been paying attention." Particularly since the invasion of Ukraine AND actions in Europe (e.g. 'anchor dragging'), I'm having an increasingly hard time saying "You're over-reacting."
Re:Cause and effect (Score:4, Insightful)
Fine, but I don't think it matters whether the Russians thought of it first. What matters is whether they're doing it right now.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Who is saying that? The Danish investigation has suspects but no conclusion
[1]Nord Stream: Denmark closes investigation into pipeline blast [bbc.com]
And US intelligence was putting some confidence that it was a Ukrainian aligned group
[2]Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say [nytimes.com]
I don't think I have seen anyone say who did it with any real confidence, it's a crime where every party has a motive and could be a suspect. So which country was blaming the Russians at this point (not in the
[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68401870
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html
Re: (Score:1)
Oh give me a break. Just read the comments on the first Slashdot story reporting Nordstream being blown up, it's probably the worst false-flag op in history:
[1]https://news.slashdot.org/stor... [slashdot.org]
The gaslighting isn't going to work on the Ukraine mess. What the West has done to those people is unforgivable.
[1] https://news.slashdot.org/story/22/10/02/1931252/nord-stream-rupture-may-mark-biggest-single-methane-release-ever-recorded-un-says
Re: (Score:2)
Yeah *First Story* in October 2022
Also what political leader or intelligence agency is in these ./ comments?
Give *me* a break. Same old story,
"They said this thing!"
"Ok, who is they?"
"Random internet commentators! The most important people! To me!"
Re: (Score:1)
> Nordstream being blown up, it's probably the worst false-flag op in history
Yep everyone knows it's the Russians doing it to blame UK/US/NATO/Ukraine. When the only country that benefitted was Russia.
Re: (Score:2)
> And US intelligence was putting some confidence that it was a Ukrainian aligned group
I wouldn't put much stock into what a highly likely suspect has to say. I'm inclined to believe that it was the U.S. that was responsible, even if indirectly. It's possible that someone else did it for their own reasons, but if you look at it from a perspective of profitable outcomes and the U.S. shoots to the top of the list. We're also powerful enough to lean on anyone who may know the truth to suppress or twist it.
Re: (Score:2)
> profitable outcomes and the U.S. shoots to the top of the list.
I definitely think you can make a case for the US being responsible, that's what makes this whole thing full of intrigue, the Russian, Ukrainians, American's and even some of Europe all had some motivation to attack.
I would say your claim is overly strong in my opinion, I think the US reasons for being involved are pretty weak. Profitable? For what, US gas exports? It's not as thought the US was struggling to find buyers for it's gas. I guess to weaken Russia by cutting off money they could make off gas?
Not Western - Mongol (Score:2)
Many of these ideas are not Western - quite the opposite - they are of Mongol origin.
Ever wondered how Genghis Khan built such a huge empire?
Well - many of his methods are still used by Russia today - propaganda, fear, bribery, manipulation, lies....
While Western chivalric tradition praised truth - Russia follows Mongols in 'say whatever causes opponent to do what you want, truth does not matter'.
Re: (Score:1)
The post kind of leaves this open to interpretation, but I took things exactly the opposite of you. I felt that the implication was that, if anything, the propaganda, fear, and manipulation was being put out by the west. How do you explain a country being continuously being accused of these things, incompetent enough to never actually succeed in assassinations or sabotage, yet at the same time, so competent that they are never caught red-handed?
In cases where someone is eventually convicted in the linked ar
Re:Not Western - Mongol (Score:4, Interesting)
> never caught red-handed?
This is an unreasonably high standard for when we are talking about actions of nation states much less in an active war and one that has state controlled media. Add on top of that the fact this is all spy-vs-spy type stuff and realistically nobody here is getting the real scoop, all we have to go on are these statements which are going to be vague by design not just for a lack of information.
I think it's also fair to have a lack of charity for the nation that is currently invading another one with the purpose to annex territory, I think it's OK to not think the best of them by default.
If Russia isn't invading anyone right now or the handful times it has done so since 1991 nobody would give conflict with them a second thought right now. You know how Russia can disable all that supposed propaganda? Leave Ukraine. Nobody was give that any consideration about that until 2014/2022, so much so that Obama famously made fun of Romney for saying Russia was our biggest adversary in a debate in 2012.
Re: (Score:2)
> I think it's also fair to have a lack of charity for the nation that is currently invading another one with the purpose to annex territory, I think it's OK to not think the best of them by default.
That's the way the world works now. Trump said it, True!. Biden said it, False! Or the converse depending on who you think is the bad guy. Its sort of goes with the way movie plots work.
Re: (Score:3)
So you think it's unfair to think critically of Russia about these incidents, Russia the nation that is currently the aggressor (unjustified aggression in my view) in a war of territorial occupation who has for decades engaged in this type of hybrid warfare, performed confirmed assassination's on non-Russian territory, has engaged in sabotage and for decades has used "unofficial" paramilitary forces to engage in conflicts, that's the country that we should treat as a totally neutral "he said/she said" type
Re: (Score:2)
> o you think it's unfair to think critically of Russia about these incidents, Russia the nation that is currently the aggressor (unjustified aggression in my view) in a war of territorial occupation who has for decades engaged in this type of hybrid warfare, performed confirmed assassination's on non-Russian territory, has engaged in sabotage and for decades has used "unofficial" paramilitary forces to engage in conflicts,
Are you talking about Russia or the United States?
> that's the country that we should treat as a totally neutral "he said/she said" type fashion, can't give any tilt towards the direction that maybe the Russian state is lying to everyone?
I see no reason to think Russia is more likely to be lying than anyone else. Propaganda may be true or not. What is certain is that the propagandist thinks it serves their interests.
> Or maybe, Russia is the bad guy here. It's OK to say that, the evidence is pointing that way,
There is no evidence. Just statements by people with zero interest in the truth. And the argument for believing them is that they may be liars but their are our liars. Its a fanboy operation where whose side you are on determines your beliefs.
Re: (Score:2)
Classic, just say "both sides" and wave your hand.
> I see no reason to think Russia is more likely to be lying than anyone else. Propaganda may be true or not.
Well I do and it's their system of governance by oligarch and dictator, their lack of free press and abundance of state-controlled media their known history of offensive cyberattacks and social media engineering, do we want to start a list.
And before you "both sides" not believeing Russia != you believe the US either, but we do have a free press so the government can be called out on it's BS and often is. How's Navalny doing by the way?
> There is no evidence.
So Russia was justifi
Re: (Score:3)
So interesting you should say that, since I have lately been thinking along similar lines myself.
In many ways, it seems like Russia is the spiritual successor of the Mongol Empire. The territorial extent and tendency towards expansionism is clear. While I didn't think about the points you made, in terms of warfare there are also several parallels: the Mongols would offer cities a chance to surrender and join their empire, and those who opposed where brutally and mercilessly razed to the ground and its popul
Re: (Score:2)
> Darth Putin doesn't have enough sycophants.
He would if he'd stop killing them off....