US Programming Jobs Plunge 27.5% in Two Years (msn.com)
- Reference: 0176790957
- News link: https://developers.slashdot.org/story/25/03/22/1211202/us-programming-jobs-plunge-275-in-two-years
- Source link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careers/1-in-4-programming-jobs-have-vanished-what-happened/ar-AA1AUumu
The timing coincides with OpenAI's release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Anthropic researchers found people use AI to perform programming tasks more than those of any other job, though 57 percent of users employ AI to augment rather than automate work. "Without getting hysterical, the unemployment jump for programming really does look at least partly like an early, visible labor market effect of AI," said Mark Muro of the Brookings Institution.
While software developer positions have remained stable with only a 0.3 percent decline, programmers who perform more routine coding from specifications provided by others have seen their ranks diminish to levels not seen since 1980. Economists caution that high interest rates and post-pandemic tech industry contraction have also contributed to the decline in programming jobs, which typically pay $99,700 compared to $132,270 for developers.
[1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careers/1-in-4-programming-jobs-have-vanished-what-happened/ar-AA1AUumu
No doubt (Score:1)
It's the ideal problem space, really.
Programming is literally about exacting rules and deterministic outcomes. It's exactly the sort of thing I'd expect a computer to be good at.
Kind of like I used to say about chess; I was only surprised that it had taken so long for computers to get good at it.
Re: (Score:2)
> It's exactly the sort of thing I'd expect a computer to be good at.
There is no rational basis for such an expectation. AI is good at taking human-made snippets of code and passing it off as its own, but not much else. It has no creative ability whatsoever, and can only use code it has found elsewhere. It is incapable of creating something new.
Re: No doubt (Score:2)
I don't disagree with that, but that describes much of human coding too.
Re: (Score:2)
>> It's exactly the sort of thing I'd expect a computer to be good at.
> There is no rational basis for such an expectation. AI is good at taking human-made snippets of code and passing it off as its own, but not much else. It has no creative ability whatsoever, and can only use code it has found elsewhere. It is incapable of creating something new.
One of the ways the BLS differentiates between programmers and software developers is that programmers don't do much of that creative work you mention. That's why only programmers show a decline, while software developer positions are still growing. You should also keep in mind that by BLS definitions, there are less than 10% as many programmers as there are software engineers in the marketplace.
Re: No doubt (Score:1)
Something new like changing a return type of a function given no other context? Or designing a new browser that doesn't use chromium with no other context? Two things that most people can't do while the second is something people refuse to do but im convinced an AI can do easily.....
Re: No doubt (Score:2)
I used to think the same. But generation of artistic outputs is actually the ideal problem space because measuring the value of the resulting outputs is subjective. There is no actual way to measure that. "Good" is opinion.
Whereas, in code, programming, networking, technology, you are into multi orthogonal domains of knowledge, where measurements can made against agreed upon standards and value can found in performance and utility.
Chess is a single constrained domain knowledge.
Re: (Score:2)
> where measurements can made against agreed upon standards and value can found in performance and utility.
With all the crypto and AI and other VC funded nonsense out there couldn't we say that say Sturgeon's Law applies to code the same as it does for art?
Re: (Score:2)
That's basically saying art is subjective so you can't tell if bad stuff is bad.
I disagree. The point of art is to communicate something to other humans, and make you think. Like the banana and tape: you might dislike it, but it got people world-wide taking about at and arguing about artistic merit. That's what art can do. The AI slop? Not so much.
Re: (Score:2)
I agree that art is about communicating and encouraging thought. And one can determine the success of a work of art (i.e., whether it's "good" at being art) by how well it achieves that purpose.
Still, I'd argue that much of art appreciation is indeed subjective. Suppose your daughter drew a picture of your family for Grade 3 art class that you adored and hung on the wall. For you, it's good -- but it means nowhere near as much to others aside from being cute.
I am impressed by what AI art has achieved. Just
Re: (Score:2)
> Programming is literally about exacting rules and deterministic outcomes. It's exactly the sort of thing I'd expect a computer to be good at.
That is because you have no clue what you are talking about.
Re: (Score:3)
> There'll be growth in programmer jobs to fix up all the crap AI caused due to gullible managers and C-levels that bought into today's hype.
No, there will be growth in software developer jobs to fix the crap AI is generating. By BLS definitions, programmers wouldn't be qualified or capable of that work. That is why software developer jobs are still growing while programmer jobs are dropping.
Um... no (Score:2)
that's not how automation works. The companies will test the automation, find what works and what doesn't, keep what works and move on.
Like how Tesla tried to build fully automated factories (mostly as a pump and dump but I digress) and they were told it wouldn't work, it didn't work, and they stopped doing it and automated what they could.
We didn't get more jobs, we still lost jobs because over time Tesla and every other car company has managed to automate a few more things (there's some complex we
And there's the key (Score:4, Insightful)
> While software developer positions have remained stable with only a 0.3 percent decline, programmers who perform more routine coding from specifications provided by others have seen their ranks diminish to levels not seen since 1980.
And there is the money shot, so to speak.
Code monkeys, who basically just mechanically implement code, can be replaced by engines. Just as horses could be replaced by ICE engines.
If anyone is surprised by that, they really shouldn't be.
Re:And there's the key (Score:4, Insightful)
Indeed. Those that are affected are not really programmers. They are more like data typists.
Solidarity (Score:2)
You're going to lose what you have soon. They'll come for it. Your home. Your car. They'll take it.
And when they do somebody they haven't gotten around to yet will write the exact same post about you.
For now (Score:5, Insightful)
More senior roles are safe for now, especially in firms where code actually matters. (By "matters", I mean consequences of robot hallucinations that result in a business losing money, compared to saying something weird in your Facebook spam or generating obviously fake homework or non-con nudes with too many fingers.)
But the thing is, these tools do not become worse over time, and this is early days. I expect raw LLM coding capability to top out somewhere, at which point more gains will come from tilting the field more towards the robots - as libraries, tools and protocols slowly shift to being robot-generated, I'd expect humans are going to do worse with them - robots just do not code like we do and in particular do not make mistakes like we do.
I don't expect a lot of problems as the current crop of graybeards goes away - this is my cohort. The folks coming up behind us are capable and smart, they'll be fine. But I wonder where the next generation of troubleshooters of last resort are going to come from, if everyone is learning from/coding with robots. There is a lot of low-level code out there that balances real-world tradeoffs that aren't obvious - sometimes there's no right answer. LLMs can't plagiarize about these things, because aside from the code, in many cases nobody has written their reasoning down beyond "tweaked the bad thing" in a commit message.
(As one example - go try to find any documentation about the reasoning behind fsync batching in ext4. You can see what the code does, you can see the history of changes, but I don't think anyone but the authors (assuming they remember) know exactly what considerations made it the way it is. And this is extremely salient code - I'd be willing to bet there are hundreds of people trying to squeeze a bit more juice out of their Mysql install as I type this.)
There's always some unreasonable person who wants to do things the hard way, so we'll have domain experts in the age of robots. And I'll likely be dead before it is a real problem, so what do I care? But folks who assume "it'll be fine, we'll figure it out" should look to historic examples of abrupt knowledge loss in industries - usually war shocks, sometimes disasters or economic attacks short of war. You can't just stop and restart these things on demand like a pump; kill an economic ecosystem and you might get something else kinda vaguely shaped like it later, but the dead one doesn't come back.
how to hide a recession (Score:1)
don't stop buying our tech stocks we are not having a recession. that is not why we are laying people off. no not at all. normally laying people off would mean we are in a recession but we are replacing people with AI. that is great you should buy more of our stock because we are more efficient. think about the future and all the amazing stuff we will do. dont look at what we have actual done recently the future is so bright.
Correlation does not imply causation (Score:2)
I think this is more to do with economic factors than AI taking over. You can't just replace programming jobs with AI, because you still need someone who understands programming to command the AI what to do. Otherwise you'd end up with managers writing "make my software prodcut better than all the competitors". I accept that maybe some of the most menial jobs could be replaced by a highly skilled programmers who can just crank out all the boiler plate code through an AI, which might result in a dip in junio
Re: (Score:2)
I believe there's a confluence of factors. A perfect storm, if you will.
During COVID companies hired devs in troves. After the pandemic, they readjusted and started to lay off thousands of them.
That, associated with the AI craze, is now making companies get even more stricter about it. They're definitely pushing for a near future with the need of even less devs.
Re: (Score:2)
> You can't just replace programming jobs with AI, because you still need someone who understands programming to command the AI what to do. Otherwise you'd end up with managers writing "make my software product better than all the competitors".
The BLS defines the people who will command the AI what to do as software engineers, not programmers. Just like those software engineers tell the programmers what to do today.
Programmer jobs dropped 30% from 2020 to 2022, before ChatGPT kicked off the latest AI craze. The software developer profession added nearly 10 "developers" for every "programmer" lost. The move away from hiring code-monkeys to hiring more skilled software developers / engineers has been a long term trend that has nearly nothing to do
Re: (Score:2)
> Otherwise you'd end up with managers writing "make my software prodcut better than all the competitors".
Managers are not that smart. They'd ask the AI, "print me more money".
Couple things (Score:1)
Most of those jobs never existed in the first place, and the ones that do are always looking for cheaper labor (outsourcing or H-1B).
Until we have a political party that ends that gravy train, we will see more of the same.
How many were there? (Score:2)
Answer: not many
The linked data in the article lists 2023 estimates of 120 thousand programmers and 1.6 million developers.
So "Programming jobs" make up a small minority of jobs involving coding.
Re: (Score:1)
Who calls themselves a programmer anymore?
Re: (Score:2)
Sounds a bit like Mainframe Computer Operator, clear the stuck overnight jobs, I do that job before drinking the morning Joe.
Get msmash a chiropractor (Score:2)
You could not twist yourself up in knots any more to avoid saying the words GitHub Copilot. Keep living in denial slashdot
Job Reclassification (Score:2)
This seems more likely to be a job reclassification issue. Programmers and software developers are essentially the same job, and the narrow difference the BLS could easily lead surveyors and researchers to shift slightly in their definitions from year to year. Programmer + Developer employment grew 2.55% YOY in the latest BLS data. The job outlook for developers is still 18% growth over the next decade.
Even a year ago there were 9% as many programmers as there were software developers, so while this 25% dro
Re: (Score:2)
The "engineers" I read so much about on /. are gonna be ok?
Re: (Score:3)
> The "engineers" I read so much about on /. are gonna be ok?
Yes, they will be. Software development will continue to grow as a profession until AI can already do 95%+ of ALL white-collar work. Only a tiny fraction of other white-collar work requires as much creative problem solving as software development. There will be 50%+ unemployment in the workforce before the software development field starts shedding jobs.
Re: (Score:2)
Um, did you even bother reading the summary? Let alone the article. The profession is clearly shrinking.
You can try and "no true Scottsman" your way out of this I guess. That's one way to cope...
Re: (Score:2)
Exactly this; there's no story here except that hiring of *junior* programmers is down.
Of course AI is impacting IT - but in more ways (Score:5, Interesting)
Yes, AI is impacting IT jobs. We are seeing it first hand. In our case, it is with graphic design. Situations where we would have hired approximately 1 years worth of coop student work, we are instead assigning to an existing IT professional that is using tools such as Blender (with blenderkit), Gencraft, and NightCafe, With quite acceptable results.
The issue is - where will this leave us in 20 years? Our highly experienced individuals are reporting they are able to use AI as a search engine, BUT, AI cannot solve problems. Need to manage a cache of information? Do you use redis? In memory heap? In memory array? Or is it even worth it, and you can just reach in to the authoritative SQL store? AI cannot make those decisions for you. And if cut off at the knees the job opportunities for junior developers, we may risk eventually running into a shortage of highly skilled resources that are adept at architecture and design of new software.
My take? AI is a great tool for the inclined. It is a horrible crutch for the lazy. And at scale, the jury is out on whether or not it will be beneficial to advancement of technologies.
Offshore != AI (Score:2)
I have no doubt that AI is affecting coding jobs, but the timing imagined here is off. More, weâ(TM)re seeing the tail end of the devaluation of individual contributors weâ(TM)ve watched for the last few decades. Itâ(TM)s more of the MBA fever dream that imagines a worldwide labor market with like for like candidates and 7-layer deep outsourcing that, even after all seven layers make a profit, somehow remains cheaper than just keeping talent and doing things in-house. AI will continue to make
Re: (Score:2)
> I have no doubt that AI is affecting coding jobs, but the timing imagined here is off.
Or this is mostly an effect of the rebound from irrational exuberance hiring at the start of the pandemic.
Someone lies here (Score:1)
But, but I was told by Slashdot.org experts that AI is just a scam and useless.... Experts what happened?
Plunge, or... (Score:2)
Reappear overseas.
All must learn to play the piano (Score:2)
Excuse me, program
Re: All must learn to play the piano (Score:2)
Of all the popular instruments, I consider the piano to be the most beginner friendly. Unlike string, brass or percussion, the piano does not require technique before being able to play a simple tune.
Developers with Written Speciation's Disappear (Score:2)
Golly Boys. Have seen me a lot of developers in the past 25 years, I have seen about 3 written specs to a level that the project could be completed by a spec as laid out in version 1.01B as delivered when the first round of programers were hired. I have been parts of many projects where the specification did not get closed until the application V11 3rd quarter update was accepted, and someone said we need to close out the current invoicing series.
Re: Developers with Written Speciation's Disappear (Score:2)
You deal with the goddamn customers so the engineers dont have to. You have people skills. Cant they see that?
A comparison of variances is needed (Score:1)
A few points:
* The (linked) article notes that the Bureau of Labor Stats makes a distinction between "computer programmer" and "software developer". Why? It wasn't fully explained in the article. In any case, the earlier is declining in employment and the latter is increasing. What was also not addressed; is the correlation between the two scalar invariant? That is, is the decline in employment of programmers equivalent to the increase in developers?
What was not mentioned in the article: a comparison of var
Re: (Score:2)
Here is the BLS explanation, at least the quick one:
[1]https://www.bls.gov/ooh/comput... [bls.gov]
Computer programmers write, modify, and test code and scripts that allow computer software and applications to function properly.
Software developers design computer applications or programs. Software quality assurance analysts and testers identify problems with applications or programs and report defects.
[1] https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/home.htm
Re: (Score:1)
Thanks -- think that was mentioned in the article. What was not: why make this distinction, regarding data collection? Intuitively, they're describing the same class of jobs, right?
Re: (Score:2)
My (unfounded) opinion is that these categories were devised right out the mid 90's to the 'aughts and are in need of some modernization.
Also I believe the BLS gets all these stats via survey so a lot of this I think is people self-reporting their job's and BLS has to put them into buckets so they can only be as accurate as to what people provide.
My (again unfounded) when I think of someone who isn't a software dev but a "programmer" in todays world isn't so much a code monkey but like an old school guy who
Re: (Score:1)
+1
Read the details in TFA (Score:2)
The headline is really misleading. It's all about confusing gummint (specifically the Bureau of Labor Statistics) job classifications.
Programmers: code monkeys who convert specifications into applications. Those jobs are getting crushed by Copilot and ChatGPT.
Software developers: people like me who ask customers "what problem are you trying to solve?", write the specifications, and when I get lucky, write the code. Software developers are apparently doing fine. There are a lot more of them than programmers.
infinite monkeys (Score:2)
Infinite monkeys with keyboards have written all of the software. They've written themselves out of jobs.
I'm begging you to RTFA (Score:2)
It's really about the change from the term "programmer" to "software developer" in job titles.
So we're suspending H-1B programs, right? (Score:2)
Right?
More like Foreign Intelligence (Score:2)
AI, while it may in the next decade, isn't cutting jobs. If anything, Telecommuting is. and when I mean telecommuting, I mean halfway across the world.
The Reason H1B's exists, and the reason you have politicians on both sides of the isle fighting tooth and nail to keep them even though it displaces high paid American workers out of jobs, is because even though it's a job held by a foreign employee, it still counts as an American Job on paper complete with it's tax revenue. Simply put, if H1B's disappeared
web coding? (Score:2)
I have a suspicion that the bulk of so-called programmers are just building websites, a task that can easily be automated and also offshored.
Kiss the returning jobs goodbye (Score:2)
Tariffs are so beautiful, eh?
If Canada and Greenland joined together we'd have such beautiful landmass.
Re:Kiss the returning jobs goodbye (Score:5, Funny)
Tariffs are great. They can pay for everything. Kind of like Mexico paid for that Beautiful Great Wall with a blank cheque.
trump hasn't got any money from it yet only because he hasn't written the number and deposited it at the Federal Reserve.
And he hasn't done so, because the Federal Reserve is a scam. Once it is removed and 51 State Reserves appear, he'll be able to receive 51 times the amount, because he'll deposit 51 cheques.
Czhech-Mate, libs.
Re: Kiss the returning jobs goodbye (Score:3)
The past two years was "tariff free" Biden time. But you knew that.
Re: (Score:2)
> The past two years was "tariff free" Biden time. But you knew that.
This. There'll be plenty to blame on Trump as this administration's dumpster-fire continues to burn. But the loss of programming jobs over the last two years is not one of them.
Nor is Biden to blame. Per TFS/TFA, It appears the drop in programmer positions is due to the rise of AI, whereas the number of developer positions has pretty much held steady.