How Many Episodes Should You Watch Before Quitting a TV Show? A Statistical Analysis (statsignificant.com)
- Reference: 0176599615
- News link: https://entertainment.slashdot.org/story/25/03/03/1424248/how-many-episodes-should-you-watch-before-quitting-a-tv-show-a-statistical-analysis
- Source link: https://www.statsignificant.com/p/how-many-episodes-should-you-watch
> Some TV shows take a while to "get good." Modern classics like Breaking Bad, The Wire, Community, and Bojack Horseman are notorious for "starting slow" and are often recommended with a disclaimer like "Give it a few episodes; I promise it gets good!"
>
> At the same time, some shows never get good. Recently, I started a spy series called The Agency, which could best be characterized as premium mediocre (at least so far). There are big-name actors (Michael Fassbender, Jeffrey Wright, Richard Gere), expensive sets, and glossy camerawork -- but after a few installments, I'm trapped in a liminal space between engaged and listless. At the end of each episode, I'm left with the same thought: "Maybe the next one will get good."
>
> Committing to a mediocre program or continuing with a floundering series elicits a state of (mildly) torturous ambiguity. Should you cut your losses, or is this show some late-blooming classic like Breaking Bad? What is the optimal number of episodes one should watch before cleansing a subpar series from their life? Surely, a universal number must exist! Like 42, but for television. So today, we'll explore how long it takes a new show to reach its full potential and how many lackluster episodes you should grant an established series before cutting ties.
His analysis reveals that viewers [1]should watch six episodes before quitting TV shows . The study, based on IMDb user ratings, found most series require six to seven episodes before early ratings match or exceed the show's long-term average. After six consecutive subpar episodes, the likelihood of permanent decline exceeds 50%, making it the optimal point to abandon disappointing series.
Several acclaimed shows including Breaking Bad, Friends, and Seinfeld required multiple episodes before reaching their quality potential, with Seinfeld needing 16 episodes to match its series average. The research also identified a pattern where long-running shows typically experience quality decline around seasons five and six, with ratings dropping below first-season averages and continuing to fall.
[1] https://www.statsignificant.com/p/how-many-episodes-should-you-watch
Depends (Score:2)
Sometimes shows start slow. It takes a while to establish some plot points before the story can get going, or you need to do a bit of character development. Sometimes the show is just bad. It looks bad. The writing is bad. The characters or acting is bad. That isn't going to improve over time. It took me about twenty minutes before I bailed on The Rings of Power. I was getting strong Phantom Menace vibes watching that.
Re: (Score:2)
I gave up on Rings of Power too, although I'm told it gets better in season 2. That's a bit of a slog to get to.
Andor was a slow burner but I'm glad I stuck with it. Takes until about episode 5 or 6 to really get moving, but then it's excellent.
Andor (Score:2)
I've heard Andor is good, it's in my queue of stuff to watch.
Cop Rock (Score:3)
Took 3 or 4 episodes to really rock.
Up to 4 (Score:2)
I am going to say, up to 4, but if there is something that really puts you off, then just stop. There is no point torturing yourself any more. There is enough tv shows out there to take up your time.
Re: "characterized as premium mediocre" (Score:2)
I'm guessing high production value but uninspired artistically.
Translation for mouth-breathing Alabama types (Score:2)
Really? People with more than 5th grade vocabulary are artsy-fartsy New York types? Premium (PRE-me-um) means expensive and Mediocre (me-de-O-ker) means average (or as the kids say these days, "mid"). Though a reasonably intelligent person should have been able to guess that from the context even without knowing what those very common words meant.
Manimal (Score:3)
Took several species to get it right.
ST:TNG (Score:3)
It wasn't until the third season that ST:TNG found its footing.
Re: ST:TNG (Score:4, Interesting)
I remember starting DS9 when it was already in the 3rd or 4th season and wondering why everyone said it sucked.
Re:ST:TNG (Score:4, Interesting)
I was thinking of a couple of different shows, but both with a similar slow start of a season or two to really find their footing, after which they were excellent. Sometimes is just takes a while for a cast to develop the on-screen chemistry that can really make a show pop and get you to care about what happens next, and that can also extend across the whole crew - writers, directors, and so on - yet sometimes it can happen almost immediately. The difference of having a great casting team, I guess... Also, particularly with genre shows, I find the first seasons are often more exposition heavy due to the world building and that slackens off once the groundrules are set allowing more time for complex plots and character developement, a balancing act which many writing teams seem to find quite challenging.
Another possible factor is the overall structure and duration of a season. Back in the TNG days, seasons were typically 20+ episodes, whereas now they often seem to be somewhere around 8-10, so less than half. If I'd only given shows six episodes to prove their worth back then I would probably have given up on a LOT of great shows long before they hit their stride, conversely, I didn't even need the ~six *minutes* of the opening scene to realise that all of "Section 31" would have been best left on the cutting room floor. If that had gone to series and I'd given it six episodes I'd have probably needed a lobotomy to help me get over how awfully bad it was.
Somehow, I don't think it's anything like as clear cut as TFA is trying to imply.
Re: (Score:2)
> I didn't even need the ~six *minutes* of the opening scene to realise that all of "Section 31" would have been best left on the cutting room floor. If that had gone to series and I'd given it six episodes I'd have probably needed a lobotomy to help me get over how awfully bad it was.
Unpopular, and maybe untrue opinion: if it had gone to series maybe it would have actually improved and been good enough to watch by the end of six episodes? (alt: maybe it would have improved over six episodes and by the end of the sixth it would have merely been “not good enough” as opposed to damaging your very existence, or at least your opinion of the Star Trek universe)
sunk costs (Score:2)
I'm going to say 0.5 episodes. There is no TV payoff that is worth slogging through an entire work day worth of content. If a show still sucks by the time I get to the first ad break, its over.
Re: (Score:2)
Ah yes. The same sort of person who needs the hook in the first 15 seconds of the song. In the name of developing nuanced material, I think it's best that the artists cut you loose from the targeted demographic. Sadly, you're becoming representative of the norm rather than the bottom of the barrel. Can't have a well constructed, thoughtfully developed pace...
Re: (Score:2)
Unfair comparison.
A song is, what, 3-4 (or more) minutes long. If you start listening to it, and listen to it all, you wasted 3-4 minutes if it's not good.
A TV series could mean losing 3-4 hours, which is 60 times more time spent. In today's world, that's a lot.
I currently have 11 TV series in my short backlog. If the pilot episode is bad, I will move said TV series to a "will check later" stack, and if, in the future, I happen upon a good review or someone telling me "hey, it really gets good after a while
Re: (Score:2)
While I get your point, and I agree with some of your other points (like never watching "current" shows), relative to length, half an episode is like less than 15 seconds of a song.
Well defended, though. Points for not taking my (unreasonably) condescending tone as bait.
Re: (Score:2)
Hah - I thought you were the OP. :)
Re: (Score:2)
Appreciate your civilized response.
Regarding the "relative to length", in my opinion, the measure is flawed.
I prefer using "my time" rather than "percentage of item time length", because, in certain cases, the becomes unreasonably long.
Determination of good versus "not worth my time" on the following examples:
"Half a song" is obviously not a problem. Even "half an album" isn't that bad.
"Half a TV series" is unreasonably long.
"Half a lifetime" (e.g. when you go to a first date) is excessively long (yet some
Re: (Score:2)
Battlestar Galactica was a great example of a great 1st Episode.
When #6 showed up at the neutral station, and asked "Are you alive?".
Perfect Hook. Hot Chick, Menacing robots, existential crisis ....
How was BrBa starting slow? (Score:3)
Unless you're the type of person that can't make it 35 seconds into a show without 'splosions or some ludicrously choreographed martial arts sequence ... I've never understood the "starts slow" characterization of Breaking Bad .
I get that label a little more for the Better Call Saul spinoff, but even there, the character writing was deep and good, so it made up for the less "wacky adventure" nature of the first couple seasons.
Re: (Score:2)
Breaking Bad isn't slow to start. I don't know what people want with a show about selling meth to stave off medical debt for your family, but it's got pretty much everything in spades. They literally start cooking in episode 1, kill people in episode 2 (1/2?), get introduced to his BIL DEA agent (hello foreshadowing), and he tells his wife by episode 3.
Better caul saul definitely has a slower start, which is to be expected when you learn it's the origin story of a fucking shadeball defense lawyer who sta
The Cough (Score:2)
Walt's cough through the first couple of episodes was awful, and I couldn't bear the idea of multiple seasons of it.
It fades, thankfully, so I presume someone got a note or something.
Re: (Score:2)
> I've never understood the "starts slow" characterization of Breaking Bad .
Compared to how crazy the story went by the end, it's fair to say it started slow.
I Don't think the problem is slow starts (Score:2)
It's mediocre or bad starts.
In the days of broadcast television you used to have to fill time so you could sell advertisements. This means that shows that had a bad first season would keep going because that's just what they had to put on air so they could sell the ad space.
Probably the biggest example of this is family matters. It's an old sitcom that had an extremely weak first season or two and then along came Steve urkel. That one character transforms the show and made it a huge hit but the show
None? (Score:3)
I usually wait to watch a show at all until I'm fairly sure I'll like it. I don't have time to waste on every mediocre TV show that comes along.
Ever since Netflix started dropping a season at a time, I have moved to waiting until a show has been fully released before deciding whether to watch.
If it's a local broadcast show, I may record an entire season of a show that looks like a good fit. But I may not get around to actually watching it.
To be honest, Netflix has a good enough recommendations engine that I don't look outside of their catalog very often. Back in the DVD days, I rated probably 700 movies and shows on there and since then the algorithm just gets me. It has been spot on. Though they don't seem to give the % match information to me anymore in the listings, so I don't really have the same trust I used to.
I was probably the last to watch Breaking Bad. It was just a few years ago. I watched a couple episodes and then bought the Blu-Ray box set to rip to make it easier to watch (and higher quality).
Who the fuck is this guy? (Score:2)
Is this a new version of Bennett Haselton, where they aren't an expert, don't know what the fuck they're talking about, but paid ./ to let them post some drivel?
They do not appear to be an expert in pop culture, but they do have expertise in data science. So I guess that's a plus.
Not just TV shows -- movies too (Score:2)
Some movies also are slow-starters. I wonder how many people gave up watching Dr. Strangelove after twenty or thirty minutes, and missed out on the hilarity that ensues.
Analysis is only half of the picture: missing data (Score:2)
Unfortunately, the analysis here is badly done. It has the statistical flaw known as "survivorship bias".
The analysis gives data for shows which start out poor and get good. By not discussing shows that start out poor and stay poor, we don't have a picture. It also misses shows that start out good and get bad.
Simple (Score:2)
If the show is from Netflix: zero.
Next story (Score:2)
How many first world problems can Slashdot talk about?
Can't be disappointed... (Score:2)
if you don't watch any of them!
I kinda hate TV. I very very rarely watch anything, and if I do, it's live news for something significant happening (breaking news or cultural, like a State of the Union or similar).
My wife is the opposite. If she is anywhere within the house, the TV is guaranteed to be on. Drives me insane.
about 10 minutes (Score:1)
If I don't like a show within the first 10 minutes i'm out.
Life is precious, don't waste it in front of the tv.
Your most precious asset isn't money, it's time.
if I detect any woke or political BS I immediately shut it off. I'm here to be entertained, not brain washed.
Re: (Score:1)
> if I detect any woke or political BS I immediately shut it off. I'm here to be entertained, not brain washed.
if this is how you approach media then those brains are thoroughly washed already even if you dont want to realize it
Re: (Score:1)
> if I detect any woke or political BS
So misogyny, racism, and anti-semitism are not dealbreakers for you, but "woke" is?
Usually five minutes are enough... (Score:2)
...to quit and move to the next show. But for most of them, just reading the summary is enough to move along.
Acting Cohesion... (Score:2)
From what I have seen, doesn't happen until at least a season in. The characters mesh more easily and with less resistance to the characters, after having played them for a while. They can better step into the character, and even start to develop new mannerisms and quirks that only come out when playing that character. There are a number of shows from the past where this can be easily pointed out. First season acting was dry and emotionless, and subsequent seasons looked more natural and the actors much mor
Some shows take time to develop (Score:2)
The first 5 or 6 episodes of Seinfeld weren't very good. The cast were trying to grow into the characters so things were stiff and awkward. The same is true of other shows like M*A*S*H, Star Trek: The Next Generation, and even the Simpsons. They all became major hits and were on for years. But it's hard to know that early on. For me, unless the show premise is ridiculous, too much like other shows, or has one or more characters I simply can't stand, I'll give it 3 or 4 episodes before I pull the plug. Of c
Re: (Score:2)
Yeah it really seems like comedies can suffer in their first seasons since they are able to shift their characters and tone quite a bit more than dramas but that also allows them a bit more freedom to tweak things.
Countless first season examples with comedies like you mentioned the Simpsons with "Walter Matthau Homer voice", someone here also mentioned The Office (US). I would throw Parks and Rec there whose first season is almost kind of mean in it's tone and really takes a shift in it's second season. It
I'm at that point now. (Score:2)
Late to the party... but just started the first few episodes of "Lucifer". While the acting is decent, the "confrontation" moments of the police drama angle seem ludicrously anachronistic. Feels like old-timey 50s Dragnet acting. The perpetrator goes from denial to, "You'll never take me alive, copper!" Jumped out to watch something else, now debating re-engaging. Were it not for my treadmill I wouldn't watch series shows at all...
Analyzing the wrong thing (Score:2)
Star Trek TNG viewers know the drill. Skip season 1, spot-watch the important stuff in season 2, and dial in for the rest. What's different between seasons 1-2 and 3-7?
The uniforms! Those jumbo spandex jumpsuits were obviously the problem, not the ratings.
explorers not colonizers (Score:2)
You write from an informed perspective on this topic (ST:NG), yet I think the godlike fault you cite is inaccurate in the context of Next Generation. The series OFTEN dealt with the problem of a comparatively advanced civilization encountering a primitive civilization. This was so much woven into the fabric of ST:NG they built the "Prime Directive" as a best practices for these scenarios. The introduction of the Borg illustrates the importance of the Prime Directive as it turns the table on the Federation b
The Office (USA version) (Score:2)
With [1]The Office [imdb.com], I tell people to skip the entire first season.
[1] https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0386676/
But these were before "second screen content" (Score:2)
But today we have to deal with "second screen content", a strategy by Netflix and others to generate content that people can watch while they are on their phone.
It is not enough with just visuals, everything must also be said, preferably more than once because people are not paying attention. The pace should be slow so people can keep up.
if you think I am kidding or i am making it up myself, just google it. :)
(I don't subscribe to streaming services anymore, but that is mostly because i need a second job th
Gun X Sword (Score:2)
Is one of the best anime ever made with what is probably the best dub ever made. The villain is absolutely amazing in the English.
But man it's a tough first five episodes before it gets going. At the time I had a drought of anime and it was on one of the streaming services so I sat down and watched it. Powering through those five episodes and it's one of my top five mechanime.
It's tough though to get that far into a show before it takes off. In these days most anime runs 13 episodes and then stops
Depends on a lot of things. (Score:2)
Shows can start strong and have nowhere to go stringing out the audience forever, or they can start weak but the showrunners push the story through an arc that gains an audience. Worst of all are the ones that pulled the rug at the last minute and completely suck. Game of Thrones would the prime example of that but Lost was another.
Does it matter anymore? (Score:2)
It seems like everything is 6 episode seasons now. Unless it's so bad you feel like you need to bail in the first episode, you may as well finish the whole season.
That said, Dune: Prophecy is a serious WTF and I regret everything.
Absolutely not (Score:2)
I'll decide for myself how many episodes to watch. The payoff for me has to be faster, and in all of the examples given I should have bailed way before the estimate. There are shows that turn bad too. Breaking Bad, Ironically enough was one for me. Its not a terrible show per se, but its awfully long and drawn out. Too much brutalism and celebration of terribleness for me. Take it, edit it down to maybe three seasons at most and it would be a great series.
The office, first season was terrible, second and th
Breaking bad, really? (Score:2)
The first episode is a masterclass in how to be immediately interesting and exciting.
If you found that it started slow ... ehm ... maybe you watched a different show?
TV? (Score:1)
What is this TV thing they are talking about?
Babylon 5 (Score:2)
Episode 6 is Mind War....checks out. Unless you start with Th Gathering, I guess.
Re: (Score:2)
"Midnight on the Firing Line" was awesome. First episode of the series (after "The Gathering").
Re: Babylon 5 (Score:2)
Infection, Soul Hunter, and Born To The Purple were not. I mean, they were okay. But not hook-level.
You can watch junk. Or.. (Score:2)
You can rewatch "The Prisoner"
So ... waste 6 hours of your life to find out? (Score:2)
Great "analysis". How about if you don't like the 1st episode, which should be one of the most polished, complete parts of a series, maybe it's unlikely the series is for you. If it's too boring halfway through the 1st episode, you can kill it off right there. If you ask yourself "am I wasting my time?" throughout the episode, the answer is probably "yes"
IMDB ratings? (Score:2)
Waste of everyone's time to base anything on the ratings. So many shows end up with all 1s "writers are too woke; not interested in what this woman thinks; I just want to have a laugh" and 10s "just putting this in to counter the snowflake republitard knuckle-draggers".
Firefly (Score:2)
The first season was pretty good. I'm expecting great things from season two.
Episodes (Score:2)
Two.
They get two.
If by two I'm not at least thinking "Hey, if this was a little better I could enjoy this", then it's not worth my time.
If the show is established, I'll take those two from random series. If the show is new, it has to be the first few episodes.
If I'm not hooked by two, at least for the potential of the series, then it's not going to work.
Sorry, but live is too short to give things 6 episodes of trial, and I don't think I've ever encountered a series where that would make any difference.
Sure
hear me out (Score:2)
What if, and hear me out, you start by showing the third episode so no one knows what's going on. In fact, start with a bar fight where it isn't even clear who the main characters are. Then show the rest of the first half of the season, then the pilot so that we get the backstory.
NO, THATS NOT IT! Then cancel it immediately! You have to cancel the entire show at that point even though people now understand what's going on.
Rings of Power Anyone? (Score:1)
Perfect!! Six is EXACTLY where I should have stopped. Especially after 6th "Who's THE STRANGER" episode. Yeeesh!!!
The X Files (Score:2)
I used to watch it on TV years ago, then around 2012 there was the complete X Files episodes streaming online, i watched every episode over a weekend thanks to pizza delivery :)
About 20 minutes of the first episode (Score:1)
If I don't get interested within 20 minutes, I give up and find something else to watch.
Sometimes, it can take even less. I watched about 15 minutes of the Section 31 movie before I tossed in the towel.
Even the original Dune movie made it 20 minutes before I gave up.
I watch all of them (Score:2)
Then I quit.
Re: I watch all of them (Score:2)
I don't watch TV shows at all, precisely because they don't have well defined endings (by design).
Re: (Score:2)
> I don't watch TV shows at all, precisely because they don't have well defined endings (by design).
Some don’t, others very much do. Breaking Bad for example has a very clear very definitive ending. (SPOILER HORN!) The main character achieves many long term goals, others are given up on. Main character dies. Characters that have been enemies and allies over many seasons are killed. Most loose ends are tied up.
Breaking Bad ended so definitively then when the network, fans, and director wanted to