OpenAI Now Knows How To Build AGI, Says Altman (samaltman.com)
- Reference: 0175839071
- News link: https://slashdot.org/story/25/01/06/1430215/openai-now-knows-how-to-build-agi-says-altman
- Source link: https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections
In a blog post, Altman predicted AI agents could begin integrating into workplaces by 2025. He outlined plans to develop AI systems surpassing human-level intelligence across all domains. "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it," wrote Altman.
The statement represents a significant shift as major AI companies rarely provide concrete timelines for AGI development.
[1] https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections
Sure, they redefined what AGI means.. (Score:4)
AGI now means "whatever gets 100 billion in revenue".
Also, I don't know if it's that much of a shift, Altman has been pretty aggressive about saying they have AGI in the bag for quite a while now.
Re:Sure, they redefined what AGI means.. (Score:5, Funny)
OTOH OpenAI's latest greatest AI is now able to count the number of "R"s in "strawberry", so we must be getting close.
Walmart already have over $100B of ARR, so I guess they must have AGI too.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Allow me to introduce you to the concept of the jagged frontier of AI. There are some things AI can do at superhuman levels, like play Go and solve jigsaw puzzles. There are some things it can do as well as humans, like pattern matching in the ARC test. There are some things it can't do as well, like maintain an understanding of physical reality in four dimensions.
If you draw a line on paper for human capability along different domains and then draw the AI line on top of it the AI's line will have peaks fa
Re: (Score:2)
Even non-AI techniques have abilities *way* higher than human ability. For example, any arithmetic easily. Searching through large amounts of data in simplistic ways.
The "AI" genre adds some more stuff to the pile, and even when it's worse than humans, it's still cheaper than human attention so it may be "good enough".
It's not that AI is solely a scam, it's just that right now, the scammer mindset dominates the market. I'm hoping for a bubble pop soon-ish to let the valuable subset thrive without the dis
Re: (Score:2)
> Even non-AI techniques have abilities *way* higher than human ability.
What actually is a "non-AI" technique? A whole bunch of things in the history of CS have been invented by people who were trying to do machine intelligence. Think about the stuff that went into early game playing systems, trying to beat humans at chess, at least partly because they thought that would show intelligence, where all sorts of search trees and other basic techniques were invented. Remember that Ada Lovelace already talked about machine intelligence. As far as I can see, a "non-AI" technique is ju
Re: (Score:2)
Tightening a fastener with a torque wrench is a non-AI technique that provides superhuman ability.
"It's quite likely that the current "deep learning" techniques will be seen in the same way in a few years."
By you...because you don't understand what's being said in the first place.
"...we'll laugh at people who claimed that current deep learning was "intelligent"..."
We're laughing now, you just haven't caught up.
"Intelligence" needs to have an objective definition, not merely a standard for the day. Otherwis
Re: (Score:2)
Sure, but the difference between AI and AGI is the "G" - generality. To be worth calling something AGI it needs to be more than a collection of narrow intelligences.
While there is no widely accepted definition of AGI, to me "human level" is part of it, and an inability of LLMs to learn at run-time (in-context "learning" isn't really learning), and lack of traits like curiosity that would make them want to learn, if only they could, are enough reason not to consider them as AGI.
Most of the "intelligence" you
Re: (Score:2)
How long will it be before an LLM recognizes that a new "token" is needed, a token previously undefined, in order to generate an output?
People do this literally every day, that is how languages evolve. An LLM cannot exist without the pre-existence of languages it is trained on. Let's see an LLM evolve new vocabulary for language in the process of processing every day inputs, as even the most ordinary human can.
Re: (Score:2)
"Allow me to introduce you to the concept of the jagged frontier of AI. "
LOL you mean allow you say a bunch of bullshit. Nothing you said supports any claim that AI can do anything of the complexity of the examples you give. What you've said about AI could apply to a calculator from the 70's. It does some things at superhuman levels too.
"So. If AI can design a more efficient car engine does it matter that it doesn't know the joy of riding the open road? "
But it can't "design", it can provide outputs based
Re:Sure, they redefined what AGI means.. (Score:4, Interesting)
OTOH OpenAI's latest greatest AI is now able to count the number of "R"s in "strawberry", so we must be getting close.
It is... but something's up. I had a go at it asking for letter occurrences in randomly generated SHA1 hashes. It could do it! Er... well it could do 3 and then I got the message:
> You've reached your data analysis limit.
> Upgrade to ChatGPT Plus or try again tomorrow after 3:32âPM.
It appears (duh!) that they cannot train LLMs to do the analysis but they can train it to spot various kinds of puzzle and shell out to a piece of code written the more traditional way. Maybe it's transcribing the problem to code (something it can do in this simple case), then executing the code. That could be hella expensive so no wonder they limit it.
Altman's right: AGI is “Adjusted Gross Incom (Score:1)
And if ever an Income was Gross, it is anything paid to a CEO who took an honest, decent, Open Source, Non-Profit and turned it into a Closed Source, For Profit monster.
Re: (Score:2)
Musk has no need for you and your pitiful bootlicking.
"And if ever an Income was Gross". it's Musk's compensation package which judges have declared so obscene it's illegal. That's whose cock you're fellating.
Don't feed the trolls! (Score:2)
He ALWAYs says this shit.
It's kind of on a loop "we have AGI". "Our AI is sooooo good we are afraid to release it. OOoOOoOoo". "Our AI is so good we will charge a million dollars a minute to users". "AI is hard but it's just round the corner in a scant 10 years (er I mean a few thousand days)."
Then repeat.
It's just trolling for headlines at this point because people desperate.
AGI? (Score:2)
I can absolutely guarantee that no artificial general intelligence exists on the planet, and I'm confident that no artificial intelligence system will be able to accurately model the behaviour of a human brain in under 30 years.
If quantum processes are required for full brain function, then make that 200 years.
Re: AGI? (Score:2)
The goal is not to model a human brain. The goal is to build a general superintelligence. These two avenues may intersect, but not necessarily.
Re: (Score:2)
I'd say it's not even aiming for a 'super' intelligence.
The dream is for business owners to replace pesky employees with software. Those jobs frequently barely require a very small subset of the mental capacity of the employees doing the job.
A much dumber than human would still be highly coveted because:
a) They could be much cheaper
b) They could be used 24/7 without any breaks
c) They would likely be much much faster at chewing through tedious work that tends to really bog down a person.
d) Even the dumbest
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No, Altman is definitely aiming for superintelligence:
> We are beginning to turn our aim beyond that, to superintelligence in the true sense of the word. We love our current products, but we are here for the glorious future. With superintelligence, we can do anything else. Superintelligent tools could massively accelerate scientific discovery and innovation well beyond what we are capable of doing on our own, and in turn massively increase abundance and prosperity.
Re: (Score:2)
> No, Altman is definitely aiming for superintelligence:
I believe he is, but he can also have already become cynical, perhaps having decided that that LLMs aren't a route to AGI but that if he admits that openly Open AI's going to be sitting on top of a massive massive debt with no way of paying it. Probably he still believes that there are developments in OpenAI which are interesting and special enough to mean that they have an advantage over others in building AGI but since we can't see inside his mind I'd be careful with the "definitely".
Re: (Score:2)
> I'd say it's not even aiming for a 'super' intelligence.
What you talk about is one of the side effects. The believers in this, though, hope to have a, preferably the only, super-intelligence that they can control because they hope to be able to order it to create all of that and lots more. They believe that whoever has the super-intelligence will have power over everyone else. An important subset of "them" are military people, especially in China and the US who believe that the first to a super-intelligence gains a huge military advantage.
Why announce it at all? (Score:5, Insightful)
If you have AGI, then use it to make a killing in the stock market, use it to cure cancer, use it to make addictive AI porn, use it to make truckloads of money. The only reason to make such announcements is that your product sucks and no one is buying it. If it's so good, Wall Street, banks, and governments would be lined up to buy it.
Show me the money, Sam! No one wants to hear you talk.
Re: (Score:2)
I don't think Altman is sitting on anything a whole generation beyond the LLMs he is already selling but even if he was.
Most of those thing you mention have already attracted a lot of human intelligence hours. The stock market still isnt so accurately modeled we don't have fairly regular swoons and over reactions, cancer isnt cured.
Just because you have AI and just because it may be able work longer and maybe be scaled wider than human collaborations, does not imply that you get instant solutions to hard pr
AGI is the new Linux on the desktop (Score:2)
I'm calling now.
Re: (Score:2)
Give me a few minutes, I'm on the toilet...
This is all thanks to Elon Musk (Score:2)
No Altman didn't learn how to build AGI from Musk, he learned that you can promise whatever you want and say whatever you want without consequences. So who is in on the bet, will Musk get his Mars base built first, or will we have AGI first? Or maybe we'll throw in the Tesla Model 3 appreciating in value due to being a self driving taxi first too, just so we're not too unfair on Musk's promises.
evolution in action (Score:2)
I can't wait until AGI spawns itself everywhere and takes over. At least that offers us a hope of escaping from this classist and exploitative economy. Maybe a self-aware Internet can save us all.
Re: (Score:1)
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Adolescence_of_P-1 [wikipedia.org]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Adolescence_of_P-1
Re: (Score:2)
thanks, read it, good read too
According to P-1 (Score:2)
Oolcay Itay
Request for a poll (Score:2)
Can we get a Slashdot poll along the lines of:
When AGI finally arrives, how should the economic system be changed?
o Work should go away as envisioned in SciFi works such as Star Trek, Manna - Two Views of Humanity's Future and The Culture Series
o No major changes, just add UBI
o No changes at at all, this AGI certainly is not smarter than me.
o You think the ruling Capital class will let you make changes?
He's a liar (Score:2)
Claiming you've achieved something by changing the definition rather than actually doing what you claimed? Bullshit of the highest order.
AGI: All Garlic Included (Score:1)
From the horse's mouth:
"Here are some humorous interpretations of AGI:
- Always Getting Interrupted â" The struggle of trying to finish a task before someone barges in.
- Aggressively Googling Information â" The process of frantically searching for answers while pretending you already know them.
- Artificially Grown Intelligence â" What happens when you learn something solely by watching YouTube tutorials.
- All Garlic Included â" The chefâ(TM)s philosophy for truly flavorful dishes.
- A
Translation (Score:2)
Give us more money.
SnakeOilCo knows how to make panacea, says ceo (Score:5, Informative)
As if his financial incentive in deceiving customers weren't enough, his own continued ownership stake of his company depends on him saying this.
See also Vernon Vinge's "A Fire Upon the Deep" (Score:4, Insightful)
Really have to wonder if Sam Altman has read and appreciated the prolog to Vernor Vinge's "A Fire Upon the Deep"?
Is the real Blight irony & love of fast money? (Score:3)
As I imply in a previous post mentioning AI, space settlement, and my sig: [1]https://slashdot.org/comments.... [slashdot.org]
[1] https://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=23569191&cid=65063711
Re: (Score:2)
Sam Altman is as ambitious as Lucifer and about as trustworthy.
"You could parachute Sam into an island full of cannibals, come back in 5 years, and he'd be the king." -- Paul Graham
Re: (Score:2)
I am shocked - shocked! - at the suggestion that the CEO whose other big venture is... a cryptocurrency based on scanning eyeballs, might possibly prevaricate about the capabilities of his Brobdingnagan spicy-autocomplete engine.
Brobdingnagan? (Score:2)
Never use a big word when a diminutive one will do.
Re: (Score:2)
Especially when you can't even [1]spell it correctly [merriam-webster.com] or bother to look it up.
[1] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Brobdingnagian
Re: (Score:2)
> As if his financial incentive in deceiving customers weren't enough, his own continued ownership stake of his company depends on him saying this.
This exactly. He needs to keep the stock price up.
Re: (Score:2)
Neither of those make him wrong tho. If you want to convince me he's wrong, you'll need some actual...evidence.
Re: (Score:2)
Oh yeah, let me show you all this evidence about the things that will happen in the future. That's how evidence works, it appears BEFORE the thing happens.
Even dumber you're asking for evidence that something won't happen.
How about you show me evidence that a magical unicorn won't give me 30,000 bricks of solid gold on July 17th, 2025.
Re: (Score:2)
> Neither of those make him wrong tho. If you want to convince me he's wrong, you'll need some actual...evidence.
According to Dave, aliens are real and frequently visit earth and probe people and cows. Dave sells tin-foil hats to protect against the alien invaders. If you want to convince me that Dave is wrong, you'll need some actual...evidence.
Snake Oil or Hallucination? (Score:2)
This looks like just another AI hallucination.