Dire Predictions for 2025 Include 'Largest Cyberattack in History' (politico.com)
- Reference: 0175827869
- News link: https://it.slashdot.org/story/25/01/04/1839246/dire-predictions-for-2025-include-largest-cyberattack-in-history
- Source link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/01/03/15-unpredictable-scenarios-for-2025-00196309
Here's one from Gary Marcus, a cognitive scientist and author of the book [2] Taming Silicon Valley: How We Can Ensure That AI Works For Us :
> 2025 could easily see the largest cyberattack in history, taking down, at least for a little while, some sizeable piece of the world's infrastructure, whether for deliberate ransom or to manipulate people to make money off a short on global markets. Cybercrime is already a huge, [3]multi-trillion dollar problem , and one that most victims don't like to talk about. It is said to be [4]bigger than the entire global drug trade . Four things could make it much worse in 2025.
>
> First, generative AI, rising in popularity and declining in price, is a perfect tool for cyberattackers. Although it is unreliable and prone to hallucinations, it is terrific at making plausible sounding text (e.g., phishing attacks to trick people into revealing credentials) and deepfaked videos at virtually zero cost, allowing attackers to broaden their attacks. Already, a cybercrew bilked a [5]Hong Kong bank out of $25 million . Second, large language models are notoriously susceptible to jailbreaking and things like " [6]prompt-injection attacks ," for which no known solution exists. Third, generative AI tools are increasingly being used to create code; in some cases those coders don't fully understand the code written, and the autogenerated code has already been shown in some cases to introduce new security holes.
And finally 2025 may see a U.S. government "determined to deregulate as much as possible, slashing costs," Marus speculates, a scenario where "enforcement and investigations will almost certainly decline in both quality and quantity, leaving the world quite vulnerable to ever more audacious attacks."
Elsewhere in Politico's article there's other even less-cheery predictions for 2025. The executive director of an advocacy group for public health professionals describes the possibility of an epidemic "that we had the tools to control" which "winds up killing thousands" (while also "sending the economy back into a Covid-like downward spiral.")
And a law professor predicts 2025 will see a decisive breakthrough in quantum computing. "Those little padlocks you see beside URLs? They would, overnight, become a fiction."
[1] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/01/03/15-unpredictable-scenarios-for-2025-00196309
[2] https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262551069/taming-silicon-valley/
[3] https://cybersecurityventures.com/top-5-cybersecurity-facts-figures-predictions-and-statistics-for-2021-to-2025/
[4] https://blogs.cisco.com/financialservices/how-to-prevent-the-bank-robbery-no-one-can-see
[5] https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/04/asia/deepfake-cfo-scam-hong-kong-intl-hnk/index.html
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prompt_injection
We will survive 2025 (Score:3, Interesting)
Sure, we have a rocky situation about to unfold this year in the US. Fascism is on the rise and it will control all three branches of the federal government, with no meaningful checks against its power. But 2025 will be nothing compared to 2028.
Assuming that Trump lives that long - which is a big assumption for someone who is clinically obese and in their 70s - what will he do when election time comes along? Will anyone stop him from declaring himself exempt from the 22nd amendment? Or will anyone stop him from appointing his own son as a new emperor?
And yes I know I will be moderated down into oblivion by the overwhelming conservative majority here. I also know that there is almost no chance of this site still being online in 2028, so nobody will see this comment when that day comes. That's all OK with me. Don't say you weren't warned. And don't pretend this doesn't impact technology.
Re: (Score:2, Interesting)
Fascism, n. Opinions that make me sad.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
> Fascism - is a far-right, authoritarian, and ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation or race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy. Opposed to anarchism, democracy, pluralism, egalitarianism, liberalism, socialism, and Marxism, fascism is at the far right of the t
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And the Democrats STILL couldn't manage to run a candidate that could beat Trump. Think about that for a moment. The worst possible person to be President (Trump) and the Democrats said "Hold my beer" while they roll out someone even more unelectable. That's amazing.
So we've two terrible political parties. The only real comfort I have in all this is, Republicans are REALLY bad at governing. They don't really want to. This means them getting stuff done is really difficult because of all the infighting in the
Re:We will survive 2025 (Score:5, Informative)
> And the Democrats STILL couldn't manage to run a candidate that could beat Trump. Think about that for a moment. The worst possible person to be President (Trump) and the Democrats said "Hold my beer" while they roll out someone even more unelectable. That's amazing.
They ran a candidate who was orders of magnitude more knowledgeable and qualified for the position. It should have been an easy win.
What the democrats overlooked though was that the MAGA party still controls the narrative. It doesn't matter who controls the "media" as the media doesn't set the narrative any more. The narrative comes from social media, heavily produced and heavily covered political rallies, and all sorts of whisper campaigns. The narrative doesn't care about facts, it only carries the most repeated talking points.
It didn't even matter that Twitter was purchased by a far-right maniac and turned into another conservative echo chamber. That die was already cast. There were too many ways for MAGA folks to spread their preferred narrative, and the democrats couldn't figure out a response.
As has been said so many times before
> a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes
And never was that more relevant than on election day.
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News flash: you were never an independent.
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I was speaking about "electability" or rather, the ability to get elected. Harris clearly didn't have that, regardless of any other qualifications. I wasn't attacking Harris's abilities but merely pointing out that she wasn't actually electable. That has nothing to do with competency. Trump is an idiot. He was also more electable then Harris.
Democrats need to come up with better messaging and maybe participate in primaries. You know, that Democracy stuff.
Don't take this post as an endorsement of Republicans
Democrats lost for three reasons (Score:3)
First they ran on abortion instead of the economy. That would work if women aren't able to get abortions 98% of the time. We selectively enforce laws so it's generally only poor and especially minority women who are unable to get access to care. A handful of women were caught in emergency situations and slipped between the cracks but that's not enough to move to needle. There's just no urgency around the issue.
Next they shouldn't have run a woman. We now have enough polling and results to reliably say t
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If people really cared about being able to vote, they wouldn't wait until election day to make sure they were going to be able to vote.
Also, isn't Pennsylvania mostly a blue state? (I really don't know) If so, why hasn't the Democrats in charge bothered to set fair and balanced election laws. California and New York manage just fine. We just let everyone vote :)
As you said, running on Roe versus Wade is a very narrow focus. I'm sure some people take that issue up as their "Single voter issue" but most peopl
America is a nation of 12-year-olds (Score:2)
We know that because the average reading level is about 6th grade.
That means they're thinking is very simple and straightforward. Election day is election day and you vote on election day. It's not about caring or not caring.
Never mind the fact that we don't exactly tell people just what's at stake and when we try to they don't believe you. People do not believe just how bad it can get. Again it's a nation of 12-year-olds.
There is no hope in America left. We're just trying to hang on. We need to
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^^^^ Mod parent up. This was a fair summary of some of the issues that mattered. There were other things to be sure, but this was a large part of it, possibly the largest.
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It doesn't really matter to me. I am Gen-x: as long as you leave me and mine alone I do not give a fuck what you do; if you come at me I will fight you to the death over minor shit with no regard for the consequences.
I'm also a middle aged, married, straight, white, male, business owner, living in a wealthy, California, coastal enclave. I am well shielded from the worst effects of what is to come.
I am well educated, and grew up poor in the mid-west. I have significant experience with conservative America
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Personally, I assumed they didn't want to take the blame for what the economy is going to do to people as AI takes more and more jobs. Some will profit immensely, but a much large group will lose enough to balance that out.
Wait a decade and things may be a lot different, but I think we're in for a very rough patch.
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Painting the whole of the GOP as fascists plays right into the hands of Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Greene and that infowars chump. Not to mention the Chinese, Russian and Iranian spy agencies that are constantly working to break us apart.
I live in a pretty-damn-red state and I can tell you that I know tons of conservatives and GOP-ers, and none of them are fascists. Do we agree on everything? No. But that doesnt make them fascists.
I’ve seen a few genuine fascists around. A few years ago the KKK h
Re: (Score:1)
> Painting the whole of the GOP as fascists [...]
Not all Germans were Nazis. And yet the Nazi party won the election, and the Nazi extremists took control of Germany and we all know where that led.
Not all GOP are MAGA. And yet we elected a president on a platform that ticks every box on the definition of Fascism -openly and proudly. Where will that lead?
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Most of german society (at the time) just shrugged their shoulders and went along with the guy. Yeah, that led to some extremely bad outcomes.
As I said, most of US society is either actively opposed to him, or just passive-aggressively refusing to go along with him. Yeah, we elected him, but don’t believe for a second that the whole society is invested in the MAGA bs. Like I said, congress, the courts, the military, the police, the states, and most of the internet are NOT going along with the guy.
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I hope you are right. I think many will actively push him along the path to fascism, and that most will shrug and go along rather than resist.
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That's not fascism. Fascism is about the large companies and the state working together to achieve their common goals. That's why the symbol was an axe bound into a bunch of sticks. The axe represented the force that the government brought to the agreement and the stick represented the companies that worked in concert with the government. (I suppose that theoretically any corporate state fits that model, but I believe that Mussolini intended that the government be the ruling power.)
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Ahh -you reject reality and substitute your own!
As an Adam Savage fan, I fully support your efforts.
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If you look at Trump and don't see a fascist, get your eyes (and your brain) checked.
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> Assuming that Trump lives that long - which is a big assumption for someone who is clinically obese and in their 70s - what will he do when election time comes along? Will anyone stop him from declaring himself exempt from the 22nd amendment? Or will anyone stop him from appointing his own son as a new emperor?
Could be worse, he could anoint Mr. Personality, JD Vance.
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Vance would be fine. The guy is actually pretty educated, hard working and competent. He wrote a pretty damn high quality book, and by all accounts he actually authored it himself.
His Trumpism is 100% an act.
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I agree that Trump is a symptom, and that the problem will remain once he's gone.
I think the problem has several components. One is that the US is losing the predominance that it had during the last 50 years or so, and lots of people don't like that. So they're unhappy, and they don't understand why. Another is that the economy is savaging the lower middle class. This is probably now moving upwards into more of the middle class, but that's estimation rather than data. This also makes people unhappy. U
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> I wonder how "dire" your predictions would be if you were not suffering from TDS.
The Daily Show has really gone downhill since Trevor Noah left, but I wouldn't say "suffering". More "not watching" than "suffering".
The Republican power isn't consolidated enough (Score:2)
For Trump to be declared King just yet. Instead what they're going to do is just what they've always done, make it tough for anyone under 45 to vote. Long wait times, complicated voter ID laws that they pretend have something to do with election security even though they've been caught multiple times in courts documents, probably some more bomb threats to add to the 67 we had this year, etc etc.
If you see the Republicans seriously attacking social security and Medicare for existing recipients then you
As the great philosopher said (Score:2)
Predictions are hard, especially about the future
Re: As the great philosopher said (Score:2)
This one is a gimme. Chances get better the longer it doesn't happen. Just say it every January until a big cyberattack happens, which will be soon, then call yourself a futurist.
"Those Little Padlocks..." (Score:2)
Are already a fiction.
People believe they mean their transaction and information are secure and securely stored, vs. "this is the site it says it is and your session is encrypted over the wire".
Hell, with Unicode substitutions, a paper-thin "web of trust" and corporate interception proxies, those two things are a fiction, too.
An attacker doesn't have to be very good at all to mess with your via TLS.
Walcome to the age of precarious living (Score:2)
Every person for themselves...
People will have to dedicate a significant fraction of their bandwidth and funds just to ensure that they aren't phished or hacked, or taken advantage of or swindled. Most people will end up falling prey to one or more of these criminals or parasitic businesses.
No, the government won't help to resolve this. You're on your own. There are too many vested interests providing re-election money to the politicians to deregulatate, or at least maintain the status quo.
Business don't wa
Oh no! (Score:1)
Whatever will I do? Put the correct flag on my sosh?
Story desperately needs funny (Score:2)
But I can't imagine much by way of humor. I wouldn't want to put a firm date on anything, but... I keep thinking about the Fermi Paradox, how fast we are developing new ways to exterminate ourselves, and how slowly we solve any of the problems. Not just the old problems. Lots of people are still suffering from starvation and dying from curable diseases as I type this, but it's the new problems we don't even want to acknowledge that could finally finish us off.
I actually think the main existential threat is
A cyberattack is not the only one (Score:2)
[1]https://www.activeresponsetrai... [activeresp...aining.net]
Sarah Adams, Former Targeter at The CIA
Shawn Ryan “I just wanna clarify. You are 100% certain that there are 1,000+ Al-Qaeda trained fighters within the United States borders”
The CIA “I think there's more than a thousand Al-Qaeda members in the United States — Well, Al-Qaeda says they trained and deployed a thousand for this attack”
Sarah Adams then goes on to explain how there actually will probably be even more
During this Shawn Ryan Show episod
[1] https://www.activeresponsetraining.net/upcoming-terrorist-attacks-in-the-usa
As I say from time to time (Score:2)
As I say from time to time, "With these new advances, technology may finally permit history to have an end."
Epidemic that kills thousands? (Score:2)
Dude, we've already had an epidemic (ok, pandemic) that killed 1.2 MILLION in the United States alone. An epidemic that kills thousands is small change.
Oblig Simpsons (Score:2)
The largest Cyber-Attack in history SO FAR
That's it? (Score:2)
an epidemic "that we had the tools to control" which "winds up killing thousands"
Thousands? That's what they're worried about? We need to pump those numbers up!
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> an epidemic "that we had the tools to control" which "winds up killing thousands"
> Thousands? That's what they're worried about? We need to pump those numbers up!
> And a law professor predicts 2025 will see a decisive breakthrough in quantum computing. "Those little padlocks you see beside URLs? They would, overnight, become a fiction."
If tiny padlocks is all a law professor could come up with for this potential threat, then perhaps AI will at least be more creative with slinging bullshit painted in a fresh hue of FUD.
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> If tiny padlocks is all a law professor could come up with for this potential threat, then perhaps AI will at least be more creative with slinging bullshit painted in a fresh hue of FUD.
The pad lock he described here are these little icons left to the URL shown by your browser, asserting, that the connection to your web server is encrypted. Quantum crypto will eventually be able to break this encryption, while that pad lock will still be there, giving users a false sense of security.
This is how I read this professor's note, and it makes a lot of sense to me. This pad lock is just about the only thing cryptography related most web users ever get to see .
Re: That's it? (Score:2)
I expect someone to find a fatal flaw in Azure locking every computer using it as a login server.