Desert Quakes May Have Boosted Chances of 'Big One' Striking California (sciencemag.org)
(Tuesday July 14, 2020 @06:00AM (BeauHD)
from the ticking-time-bomb dept.)
- Reference: 0133333570
- News link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/07/14/034245/desert-quakes-may-have-boosted-chances-of-big-one-striking-california
- Source link: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/desert-quakes-may-have-boosted-chances-big-one-striking-california
[1]sciencehabit shares a report from Science Magazine:
> A pair of earthquakes that struck the remote California desert 1 year ago have [2]raised the risk of 'the big one' hitting Southern California , according to a new study. The research finds that the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, quakes shifted underground stresses, making the San Andreas fault -- the state's longest and most dangerous fault -- three times more likely to rupture. U.S. Geological Survey estimates for the annual probability of an earthquake on this part of the San Andreas are about one-third of a percent -- equivalent to expecting a magnitude 7.8 every 300 years, on average. The new modeling triples that hazard to 1% per year -- or a big one every century. And if the Garlock actually does rupture, then the hazard really rises on the San Andreas, by a factor of 150: The probability of a big one rises to 50% in the following year. In principle, a Garlock earthquake could lead to rupture on the San Andreas in a matter of hours or days, much as the two Ridgecrest events came within a day or two. USGS regional scenarios anticipate 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries in the event of a major San Andreas earthquake. More than 3 million homes could be damaged, at a reconstruction cost of $289 billion.
The study has been [3]published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America .
[1] https://slashdot.org/~sciencehabit
[2] https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/desert-quakes-may-have-boosted-chances-big-one-striking-california
[3] https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/bssa/early-publication
> A pair of earthquakes that struck the remote California desert 1 year ago have [2]raised the risk of 'the big one' hitting Southern California , according to a new study. The research finds that the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, quakes shifted underground stresses, making the San Andreas fault -- the state's longest and most dangerous fault -- three times more likely to rupture. U.S. Geological Survey estimates for the annual probability of an earthquake on this part of the San Andreas are about one-third of a percent -- equivalent to expecting a magnitude 7.8 every 300 years, on average. The new modeling triples that hazard to 1% per year -- or a big one every century. And if the Garlock actually does rupture, then the hazard really rises on the San Andreas, by a factor of 150: The probability of a big one rises to 50% in the following year. In principle, a Garlock earthquake could lead to rupture on the San Andreas in a matter of hours or days, much as the two Ridgecrest events came within a day or two. USGS regional scenarios anticipate 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries in the event of a major San Andreas earthquake. More than 3 million homes could be damaged, at a reconstruction cost of $289 billion.
The study has been [3]published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America .
[1] https://slashdot.org/~sciencehabit
[2] https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/desert-quakes-may-have-boosted-chances-big-one-striking-california
[3] https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/bssa/early-publication
Re: (Score:3)
by Errol backfiring ( 1280012 )
And when the battery runs out, they are more than happy to rebuild it again .
Re: (Score:2)
by pahles ( 701275 )
They're talking about damaged houses, not destructed houses...
Re: (Score:2)
by flyingfsck ( 986395 )
California is just one long slum along the seaboard. Nobody will even notice the earthquake damage.
Yes I know (Score:2)
by AndyKron ( 937105 )
If it happened tomorrow Trump would call it "just a little tremor"
This whole article is written (Score:2)
as IF it's gonna happen, but it's really WHEN.
Re: (Score:1)
It hardly seems like much of a big deal either:
"USGS regional scenarios anticipate 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries in the event of a major San Andreas earthquake."
So basically this once in a century event is going to be no worse than a single day of Donald Trump being in office during a once in a century major pandemic then?
Re:This whole article is written (Score:4, Insightful)
Judging from how 2020 has been going so far, it will happen this year.
Re: (Score:1)
Don't point out the obvious. It scares people.