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Desert Quakes May Have Boosted Chances of 'Big One' Striking California (sciencemag.org)

(Tuesday July 14, 2020 @06:00AM (BeauHD) from the ticking-time-bomb dept.)


[1]sciencehabit shares a report from Science Magazine:

> A pair of earthquakes that struck the remote California desert 1 year ago have [2]raised the risk of 'the big one' hitting Southern California , according to a new study. The research finds that the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, quakes shifted underground stresses, making the San Andreas fault -- the state's longest and most dangerous fault -- three times more likely to rupture. U.S. Geological Survey estimates for the annual probability of an earthquake on this part of the San Andreas are about one-third of a percent -- equivalent to expecting a magnitude 7.8 every 300 years, on average. The new modeling triples that hazard to 1% per year -- or a big one every century. And if the Garlock actually does rupture, then the hazard really rises on the San Andreas, by a factor of 150: The probability of a big one rises to 50% in the following year. In principle, a Garlock earthquake could lead to rupture on the San Andreas in a matter of hours or days, much as the two Ridgecrest events came within a day or two. USGS regional scenarios anticipate 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries in the event of a major San Andreas earthquake. More than 3 million homes could be damaged, at a reconstruction cost of $289 billion.

The study has been [3]published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America .



[1] https://slashdot.org/~sciencehabit

[2] https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/desert-quakes-may-have-boosted-chances-big-one-striking-california

[3] https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/bssa/early-publication

This whole article is written (Score:2)

by Rosco P. Coltrane ( 209368 )

as IF it's gonna happen, but it's really WHEN.

Re: (Score:1)

by Anonymous Coward

It hardly seems like much of a big deal either:

"USGS regional scenarios anticipate 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries in the event of a major San Andreas earthquake."

So basically this once in a century event is going to be no worse than a single day of Donald Trump being in office during a once in a century major pandemic then?

Re:This whole article is written (Score:4, Insightful)

by K. S. Kyosuke ( 729550 )

Judging from how 2020 has been going so far, it will happen this year.

Re: (Score:1)

by moxrespawn ( 6714000 )

Don't point out the obvious. It scares people.

Re: (Score:3)

by Errol backfiring ( 1280012 )

And when the battery runs out, they are more than happy to rebuild it again .

Re: (Score:2)

by pahles ( 701275 )

They're talking about damaged houses, not destructed houses...

Re: (Score:2)

by flyingfsck ( 986395 )

California is just one long slum along the seaboard. Nobody will even notice the earthquake damage.

Yes I know (Score:2)

by AndyKron ( 937105 )

If it happened tomorrow Trump would call it "just a little tremor"

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