Musk distracts from struggling car biz with fantastical promise to make 1 million humanoid robots a year
- Reference: 1769721952
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2026/01/29/truth_telling_man_always_tells_truth/
- Source link:
The [1]cash conflagration includes a plan to shift its Fremont, California, manufacturing facility from making Tesla S and X model vehicles, discontinued as of Q2 2026, into a production line capable of turning out one million Optimus robots annually.
Optimus, as described by Tesla, is "A general purpose, bi-pedal, humanoid robot capable of performing tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring." Tesla [2]says it is aiming at a manufacturing cost of $20,000 per unit.
[3]
"I'm confident that we'll get to a million units a year in Fremont of Optimus 3," said Musk on Tesla's [4]Q4 2025 earnings call . "This Optimus really will be a general-purpose robot that can learn by observing human behavior."
[5]
[6]
Musk has a history of fanciful forward-looking statements. For example, in [7]a 2011 interview with The Wall Street Journal, he said that Space X would put an astronaut into space within three years. That didn't happen [8]until 2020 . His claims about sending astronauts to Mars remain similarly unfulfilled.
During the Recode Conference in 2016, Musk [9]said , "Well, we're going to send [a SpaceX rocket] to Mars in 2018."
[10]
"Wait, wait, wait," said moderator Walt Mossberg. "2018? That's for sure?"
"Yeah, a couple of years," Musk replied.
There have been [11]many other such missed predictions , particularly around the prevalence of driverless Tesla robotaxis. At one point, Musk said there'd be a million on the road [12]in 2020 . Six years later, there are reportedly [13]couple hundred or so operating, and all of them are currently using safety drivers, according to [14]Electrek .
[15]
If Tesla were to produce a million humanoid robots, they wouldn't be all that useful. Asked during the conference call how Tesla employs Optimus, Musk said the robots currently are not doing meaningful work.
"Well, we are still very much at the early stages of Optimus," he said. "It's still in the R&D phase. We have had Optimus do some basic tasks in the factory. But as we iterate on new versions of Optimus, we deprecate the old versions. It's not in usage in our factories in a material way. It's more so that the robot can learn. We wouldn't expect to have any kind of significant Optimus production volume until probably the end of this year."
Even if Tesla hits its production milestone of one million units by the end of 2027, the company needs to demonstrate their Optimus can actually perform useful labor alongside other humans for less than it would cost to hire a human. We note that Boston Dynamics and Hyundai have planned for more modest manufacturing capacity amounting to [16]30,000 humanoid robots per year , mainly for warehouse tasks.
People who work in the robotics industry have doubts that humanoid robots are ready for deployment outside of controlled industrial spaces. That's what we heard [17]at the Humanoids Summit in Mountain View, California . There are many technical, social, and practical barriers that need to be overcome.
In its October 2025 [18]report , "Humanoid robots: Crossing the chasm from concept to commercial reality," global consultancy McKinsey observes that public demonstrations of humanoid robots don't translate into economically viable autonomous machines.
"[T]he gap between what is technically demonstrated in pilots and what is commercially viable at scale remains wide," the report says. "The prototypes that are capturing headlines are impressive but still far from delivering consistent, reliable, and economically justifiable performance in real-world settings."
Barriers include the safety implications of free-roaming robots, limited battery life when not tethered to power, lack of manual dexterity and mobility, and cost.
[19]Claude Code's prying AIs read off-limits secret files
[20]Meta to pour the GDP of Kenya into AI infrastructure push in 2026
[21]AI datacenter boom triples US gas power builds, filling the air with more CO2
[22]IBM says AI is insane in the mainframe as z17 sales surge
Lei Yang, CEO of [23]IntBot , a humanoid robot startup, told The Register in an email that given the rapid advances being made in hardware and AI, he expects Tesla and the robotics industry will be able to deliver humanoid robots in the not-too-distant future.
"While we see impressive demonstrations of robots dancing or performing backflips, these are often visible signs of hardware progress rather than autonomy," said Yang. "If you look past the spectacle, the deeper reality is that many demos still rely on scripted behaviors or direct supervision. The true challenge remains turning that raw capability into safe, repeatable, and autonomous operation around people."
Yang said that commercial viability is already here, pointing to the humanoid robots his company has deployed to hotels for hospitality functions.
"These units are already generating value by amplifying the guest experience – welcoming visitors, answering questions, and providing real-time assistance," he said.
Yang said safety remains the biggest issue. "The engineering challenge lies in creating 'inherently safe' systems that balance power with compliance," he said. "A robot must be strong enough to be useful, yet soft and responsive enough to never injure a human, even in the event of an AI misinterpretation or system accident."
Dale Walsh, VP of strategy and innovation at Roboworx, a robotics field support company, told The Register that his company is starting to see humanoid robots in the field, but they're only capable of performing specific tasks.
"'Humanoid' is a form factor and not so much a type of robot," Walsh explained. "When we're talking about Tesla Optimus or other robots like Atlas from Boston Dynamics, they're humanoids but they're general purpose robots where the goal is to be able to make them do pretty much what a human can do. So we're not seeing that yet in the market space."
Walsh said that general purpose humanoid robots present a lot of challenges. A five-foot tall robot, he said, might weigh 150 or 200 pounds. "In its natural state, it's unstable," he said. "So as it loses power, it's gonna fall. So safety is a big concern for that."
Then, he said, there's the whole issue of social acceptance. "People already fear robots taking their jobs when it's an AMR [autonomous mobile robot], you know, that moves around on the floor," he said. "Well when the robot looks like you and acts like you and moves like you, you know, that's going to be even more of a challenge from an adoption standpoint."
Asked to estimate the current size of the market for humanoid robots, Walsh said, "I would say hundreds," with the caveat that a lot depends on how you define the term. He noted that Softbank produced about 27,000 [24]Pepper robots before [25]discontinuing them in 2021 .
"That's by most definitions a humanoid robot, but it's not a general purpose robot," he said.
Veteran MIT roboticist Rodney Brooks, founder and CTO of [26]Robust.ai , in a January 1, 2026, [27]blog post , voiced skepticism about seeing useful humanoid robots any time soon.
"For [Figure and Tesla] and probably several others the general plan is that humanoid robots will be 'plug compatible' with humans and be able to step in and do the manual things that humans do at lower prices and just as well," Brooks wrote. "In my opinion, believing that this will happen any time within decades is pure fantasy thinking." ®
Get our [28]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/29/tesla_revenue_drop/
[2] https://x.com/Tesla/status/1986558797947580555?s=20
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aXvmmtrGNh2rd-GIfOfqxgAAAgw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[4] https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aXvmmtrGNh2rd-GIfOfqxgAAAgw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aXvmmtrGNh2rd-GIfOfqxgAAAgw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-VCDB-10984
[8] https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/in-historic-first-spacexs-crew-dragon-successfully-delivers-nasa-astronauts-to-the-space-station/
[9] https://youtu.be/wsixsRI-Sz4?si=_aIXEVBhNnLw-f7k&t=1055
[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aXvmmtrGNh2rd-GIfOfqxgAAAgw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[11] https://mashable.com/article/elon-musk-failed-to-deliver-on-2025-promises
[12] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/22/elon-musk-says-tesla-robotaxis-will-hit-the-market-next-year.html
[13] https://www.jalopnik.com/2063124/tesla-austin-robotaxi-fleet-34-cars/
[14] https://electrek.co/2026/01/28/teslas-unsupervised-robotaxis-vanish/
[15] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aXvmmtrGNh2rd-GIfOfqxgAAAgw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[16] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/06/boston_dynamics_atlas_production/
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/25/humanoid_robots_investment_surge/
[18] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/industrials/our-insights/humanoid-robots-crossing-the-chasm-from-concept-to-commercial-reality
[19] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/28/claude_code_ai_secrets_files/
[20] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/29/meta_2026_infrastructure_spend/
[21] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/29/ai_datacenter_boom_tripled_us_gas_power_builds/
[22] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/29/ibm_q4_2025/
[23] https://www.intbot.ai/
[24] https://us.softbankrobotics.com/pepper
[25] https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-softbank-shrinks-robotics-business-stops-pepper-production-sources-2021-06-28/
[26] http://robust.ai
[27] https://rodneybrooks.com/predictions-scorecard-2026-january-01/
[28] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: "tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring"
THe sad thing is most humans do less than that, they literally do nothing.
GO visit any office for example, half the staff could be at home completely disconnected and nobpody would notice and nothing would change.
My local council has a multi story building with hundreds of staff and yet the only people actually doing real work that we can see are the garbos who pick up the garbage, and gardeners. Thats barely 10- 20 people and yet there are over a 100 in the office doing i have no idea.
I saw another video on YT about grape growers in South Australia, who are struggling to sell their grapes for $200 a tonne, thats 20c a kilo, and yet my local Woolies sells grapes for $16 a kg.
Where is all the money going ?
Bums who do nothing.
Unfortunately we have an over supply.
Sinking feeling
Tesla was cooked when it found out the vocal minority that hyped its CyberTruck weren't representative of the average American car buyers. Thereby destroying a huge amount of effort and money. Since Musk came up with this crazy plan he distanced himself from it and Tesla in general. He simply gave up and left the company to its own devices. Now he believes he can pump up the stock price again with promises of hyper-profitability based on household robots (who doesn't dream about them?) or CyberTaxis.
Unless he delivers real soon he'll find Tesla slipping from his fingers.
I hereby predict that Tesla will go bankrupt within five years!
Re: Sinking feeling
I hereby predict that Tesla will go bankrupt within five years
Don't tempt me with a good time!
Classic tactical diversion
It is the classic tactical diversion where you know a huge pile of shit has hit the even larger ventilator blowing both the scent and huge brows soft round bricks of faeces in everybody's face and then you say:
Look over there! See my magical tricks that make all your dreams come true!
As they say, it is a classic.
Tesla tends to do badly when Musk gives it his attention. The best thing for the company would be for him to stay far away but leave his money there.
Pertect..
"In my opinion, believing that this will happen any time within decades is pure fantasy thinking." - Perfect for Musk, who has built businesses entirely on fantasy thinking.
Not sure if the article / headline is an accurate report of what's been proposed. However, as a shareholder I'd be more interested if he'd promised to sell 1 million robots. Making 1 million robots doesn't count!
If he keeps promising things and then not doing them, why is it still news when he does it again?
Realistically ...
... a general purpose humanoid robot won't be what it says on the tin until it can make my bed, wax the car and fly it around to the front, change the sprog's nappies, dig the spuds, pick the tomatoes and make & pressure can tomato sauce, mow the lawns (and take care of the equipment required), do the dishes and the laundry (including properly putting away both), fetch me the snail-mail and a beer, and the sprog's nappies will need changing again.
In short, Musk is at least as full of shit as the sprog's nappies. As usual.
Come to think of it, I think I'll wait until the sprog is old enough to be trained to do the above. It'll be easier, faster, much, much cheaper and a lot more fool-proof.
Actually, the sprog is in her forties ... and doing a good job of training her own sprog to do all the above. Except flying the car, of course.
"tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring"
Well that covers most of what the human race does every day.