Oracle could cut up to 30,000 jobs and sell health tech unit Cerner to ease its AI datacenter financing challenges, investment banker TD Cown has claimed, amid changing sentiment on Big Red's massive build-out plans.

A research note from TD Cowen states that finding equity and debt investors are increasingly questioning how Oracle will finance its datacenter building program to support [1]its $300 billion, five-year contract with OpenAI .

The bank estimates the OpenAI deal alone is going to require $156 billion in capital spending. Last year, when Big Red raised its capex forecasts for 2026 by $15 billion to $50 billion, [2]it spooked some investors .

[3]

This year, "both equity and debt investors have raised questions about Oracle's ability to finance this build-out as demonstrated by widening of Oracle credit default swap (CDS) spreads and pressure on Oracle stock/bonds," the research note adds.

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CDSes offer the buyer some insurance against a debt default. The price of the financial instruments insuring against defaults for five years tripled for Oracle in the final months of last year, says TD Cowen, which is says is an indication of a perceived increase in risk.

TD Cowen estimated the OpenAI build-out alone – Oracle is also building for [6]Meta and Nvidia in a $523 billion total commitment – would require around 3 million GPUs and other IT equipment, suggesting capital investment of $156 billion.

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The research note says US banks had pulled back from Oracle-linked datacenter project lending while private operators leasing to Oracle were also struggling to secure financing, impeding the leasing option in its build-out plan.

[8]Bond, debt bond: Investors shaken, not stirred by Oracle's borrowing spree sue Big Red

[9]Delays? What delays? Oracle insists its $300B cloud contract with OpenAI is on track

[10]Oracle raises AI spending estimate, spooks investors

[11]18 zettaFLOPS of new AI compute coming online from Oracle late next year

In September, [12]Oracle issued $18 billion in bonds and raised borrowing elsewhere. Some estimates suggest it will need [13]to borrow $25 billion a year to finance its plans.

Banks in Asia appear more relaxed about Oracle's risk profile, TD Cowen says, but it reckons that US banks raising questions casts doubt over Big Red's ability to support its mammoth building program.

Meanwhile, the bank reports that Oracle is now requiring 40 percent upfront deposits from customers – excluding, it believes, large AI customers in datacenter contracts.

TD Cowen says its conversations with channel contacts found that Oracle is "evaluating multiple paths forward to address financing questions."

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According to TD Cowen's estimates, options on the table include a headcount reduction of between 20,000 and 30,000 to free up $8 billion to $10 billion in cash flow and selling off assets including, potentially, Cerner, the health tech specialist Oracle bought for $28.3 billion in June 2022. It is also evaluating vendor financing as an option.

Oracle declined to comment. ®

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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/11/openai_reportedly_on_the_hook/

[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/11/oracle_q2_fy_2026/

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[6] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/10/oracle_cloud_llm_cash

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[8] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/15/oracle_faces_class_action_over/

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/15/oracle_denies_openai_delays/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/11/oracle_q2_fy_2026/

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/14/oracle_amd_nvidia/

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/25/oracle_18_billion_debt

[13] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/29/oracle_ai_debt/

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[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/