The Tesla stock price appears to be detached from reality

just like the Tesla fanboys...

.. and Musk

Without new models the cash flow will stagnate at best but probably diminish just when Lord Elon's projects need loadsamoney. I wonder if he'll stick his hand in his pocket and fund some of those less mainstream projects?

Nah, who am I kidding.

Will the stock price ever begin to reflect the real financial situation of Tesla? Probably not.

Sell TSLA while you can. If this continues then the stock will eventually get shorted into oblivion.

I don't and have never held any TSLA stock. Take what I have said with a big pinch of salt and consult your own advisor.

The plan to get the money is a SpaceX IPO around the middle of this year. I really hope Musk commits so thoroughly to AI that he loses control of SpaceX when the AI bubble bursts. A more likely scenario is that after AI fails to make money for a few more years he will promise investors some other new shiny tech he cannot deliver. Is there a limit to the number of times you can fail before investors catch on?

Isn't het going to need AI to make SpaceX self driving?

No, wait. That's for investors.

:)

Isn't Elon's zillion dollar bonus conditional on selling lots of cars ?

"Isn't Elon's zillion dollar bonus conditional on selling lots of cars?"

Short answer: Yes

Actually its "ONLY" 20,000,000 vehicles in the next decades.

Key contingencies are:

The milestones Musk must achieve over the next decade include:

Delivering 20 million Tesla vehicles* and one million robots

Getting 10 million subscriptions to Tesla's Full Self-Driving feature

Bringing one million self-driving Robotaxi vehicles into commercial operation

Earning up to $400bn in core profit

Eventually lifting Tesla's overall market value to $8.5tn, currently $1.4tn

He won't receive a salary under the agreed deal.

[1]https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyk6kvyxvzo

*FWIW, 20 million is FOUR TIMES the total number of EVs Tesla has shipped in the past 17 years.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyk6kvyxvzo

Can't see the Tesla Taxis succeeding, especially as they only ever take the third or fourth reich.

FSD only "works" with clear lane markings. For me that is a 20 minute walk from home to an autonomous swasticar. Longer in the direction of my most common journey.

If Waymo is smart they'll develop their guidance system to use potholes. In London they're far more certain to appear than road markings..

They can also use bogus road works for orientation.

Why downvote? These are popping every week or so in my town. You can only see workers setting up barriers, signage and then there is nothing going on for several days and then they take it away. No evidence of any work being done. I drive often and never see a soul doing anything there.

Tesla’s design language looks like it was finalised by a committee that only had access to hospital equipment catalogues. The silhouette has all the charm of a plastic urine bottle left on a bedside table.

When someone sits inside one, it doesn’t signal futurism or restraint. It signals a determined misunderstanding of what “style” means, paired with the belief that taste itself is a bourgeois distraction.

At this point, the car functions less as transport and more as a public declaration of incuriosity. Buying into Tesler now means swallowing not just the design void, but the worldview attached to it. The tolerance for Musk’s public (not Nazi, no sir!) salutes, authoritarian flirtations, propaganda laundering, and geopolitical apologism suggests a remarkable lack of critical filtering. Not ignorance. Something worse. An active disengagement from thinking, proudly worn as pragmatism.

Turns out the two models that will be discontinued are [1]the two models with the more conspicuous Telsa logos ... How strange.

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/14co2xs/if_anyone_cares_i_made_this_showing_the_design/

Not suprising, since BYD is eating Tesla's lunch.

You can pretend your cars are Made In America TM , but you cannot ask your customers to pay a high price for a car that is less advanced than what is coming out of China.

On the road, I still see plenty of Teslas - the ones that were bought at least three years ago (and more).

The new electric vehicles on the road are practically all BYD and, having taken a look at their features and performance, if I were to buy an EV, it certainly wouldn't be a Tesla.

If Musk pays as much attention to his new robots, I see no point in buying into that either.

Musk has the attention span of an 8-year-old with a new toy. After a week, it sits unused and forgotten in a corner, and it's up to Mommy to clean it up and put it away.

Except he has no more Mommy to take care of him.

BYD are cheaper (Dolphin is about £30k, Tesla 3 is closer to £40k).

That's a major point in EV sales: Price. And there are more people who can afford £30k than £40k. And those who can afford £40k are more likely to look at a higher spec'd Dolphin or look at the Seal or Sealion than a basic Tesla 3.

And yes, I've been looking at BYD.

Elon consistently over promises and under delivers.You'd think stock analysts would be a bit more hardnosed and less likely to swallow bullshit washed down with snake oil.

As long as he is connected to these companies they will be tainted by his behaviour and efforts for Trump. That stain will never go away other than for the cult members who would believe him if he said that pigs could fly.

Production of the Model S and X is to wind down next quarter, with their Fremont factory space handed over to Optimus. Musk described the move as "slightly sad," while sketching a future where the site produces up to a million humanoid robots a year instead.

I suspect this will be a mistake. There's a demand for EVs. Some of this is forced by policy, ie bans on ICE, but they can make sense. But Tesla's models are a bit dated, expensive and there's a lot of competition across all models. There might be demand for the Roadster, and Tesla took a lot of deposits for those, but failed to deliver. And now there's plenty of electric or hybrid sports cars, if buyers want those.

But while there's demand for EVs, I think the demand for a million humanoid robots a year is just a tad optimistic.. Mainly because I think humanoid might not be the best form factor, unless DIsney and Universal want to buy a shedload as animatronics. Plus Boston Dynamics seems ahead of Tesla in producing more practical things. Like robodogs with frikkin machine guns. Just making an 'AI' brain that could be slotted into different chassis would seem a lot more useful.

That assumption is wrong from square one.

We're into mature market territory.

Am I the only one who sees a massive contradiction in "self driving cars" and private ownership ?

I mean some folk may be happy to spunk £100k+ on a car that will do fuck all on their drive for 90% of the time. But others might cotton on that they can manage without THEIR OWN car and just UberDuber it in a driverless cab as and when needed

I live in Brum and can get an Uber in almost less time than it takes to put my coat on and lock up.

Cue the "spaghetti western" music:

But he's a one-hit wonder *flute trill*

Not a gifted man.

Untold billions spent, untold billions held, he buys what success he gets from the backs and hard sweat of employees who are most likely overworked and underpaid.

The cars show he cannot compete on manufacturing - despite having once claimed to have the greatest knowledge of manufacturing on the planet.

His work in Twitter and on Grok shows he cannot run a software development project - remember all the claims that X would be the "everything app"?

Boston Dynamics are three generations ahead of him in robotics.

Solar City is moribund (remember the fake solar tiles?). The energy division essentially repackages and sells third party batteries. The trucks are... limping along.

He's taken twelve years (to date!) do deliver the "just one year away" self driving promise - showing that he really doesn't understand autonomy. The demonstrations he's shown (always just before financial reports are due) have consistently been shown to have been faked.

And... there is absolutely no defensive moat whatsoever around either the AI or Optimus projects. That's why there are at least twenty Chinese companies that will sell you a humanoid robot right now (that doesn't have autonomy).

Anyone believing his predictions, or that he is unique in his vision is clearly not paying the slightest bit of attention to the reality of the business and leadership behind the over inflated stock bubble.