Windows 11, not AI, kick-started the PC upgrade cycle
(2026/01/20)
- Reference: 1768915636
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2026/01/20/windows_11_pc_refresh/
- Source link:
If 2025 proved anything about PCs, it's that corporate IT will upgrade hardware out of necessity long before it does so out of AI-fueled excitement.
According to [1]new figures from Gartner released on Tuesday, worldwide PC shipments into the channel jumped 9.3 percent in Q4 and ended the year up 9.1 percent overall, marking the first meaningful rebound after a bruising post-pandemic slump.
"This marks a significant turnaround following two years of steep decline in 2022 and 2023, and only modest gains in 2024," Gartner swooned.
[2]
The analyst says the recovery was driven by channel shipments into the commercial market, not by consumers piling into stores or a sudden rush for AI PCs. In practice, that mostly means companies replacing old machines that were already overdue for retirement. In other words, this was less about AI PCs and more about businesses discovering that a five-year-old laptop running on borrowed time is not, in fact, a long-term IT strategy.
[3]
[4]
The shift to Windows 11 is a big part of what finally forced the issue. As Microsoft steadily tightens the screws on older versions of Windows, IT departments are being left with little choice but to replace machines that can't meet the new OS's hardware requirements, whether or not they have any interest in Copilot, neural processing units, or other AI-flavored extras.
[5]Turns out the end of Windows 10 is good for something: The PC refresh cycle
[6]HP bottom line fattens up on a diet of AI PCs and Windows 11
[7]AI don't know: Enterprises slow to pick up on Copilot+ PCs
[8]You DO see Windows 11 as an AI PC opportunity, say Dell and Intel
That fits with recent findings from [9]Context , which found that buyers still put the basics first when choosing PCs. Price, battery life, and performance continue to matter far more than whether a laptop can accelerate a chatbot locally, with AI still generally treated as a nice-to-have rather than a deciding factor.
PC makers saw a late-year boost as businesses moved purchases forward to get ahead of expected component price increases, particularly in memory, according to Gartner's numbers. That scramble played to the strengths of the usual incumbents.
Lenovo held on to the top spot globally, shipping about 19.4 million units in the quarter, while HP moved roughly 15.4 million and Dell around 11.7 million, all increasing their share versus a year earlier.
[10]
The result is a PC recovery that looks healthy on paper but is conservative in character. For most organizations, the upgrades are happening out of necessity rather than excitement. Windows 11 deadlines, security requirements, and the slow grind of fleet obsolescence are doing far more work than any marketing pitch about on-device intelligence.
If AI PCs are meant to spark a new upgrade supercycle, the data suggests they'll have to wait their turn behind the far less fashionable forces of compliance, manageability, and machines that simply don't crash when you unplug them. ®
Get our [11]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-1-20-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-increased-9-point-3-percent-in-fourth-quarter-of-2025-and-9-point-1-percent-for-the-full-year#:~:text=In%202025%2C%20the%20PC%20market,only%20modest%20gains%20in%202024.
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aW-0way3IhlD6cYrxJ7CLwAAAsc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aW-0way3IhlD6cYrxJ7CLwAAAsc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aW-0way3IhlD6cYrxJ7CLwAAAsc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/17/windows_10_upgrades_lifts_global_pc_shipments/
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2025/08/29/hp_ai_pc_windows_11/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/28/copilot_pc_sales_grow_slowly/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/25/ai_propostion_windows_11_pc_vendors/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/19/price_battery_life_performance_pc/
[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aW-0way3IhlD6cYrxJ7CLwAAAsc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[11] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
According to [1]new figures from Gartner released on Tuesday, worldwide PC shipments into the channel jumped 9.3 percent in Q4 and ended the year up 9.1 percent overall, marking the first meaningful rebound after a bruising post-pandemic slump.
"This marks a significant turnaround following two years of steep decline in 2022 and 2023, and only modest gains in 2024," Gartner swooned.
[2]
The analyst says the recovery was driven by channel shipments into the commercial market, not by consumers piling into stores or a sudden rush for AI PCs. In practice, that mostly means companies replacing old machines that were already overdue for retirement. In other words, this was less about AI PCs and more about businesses discovering that a five-year-old laptop running on borrowed time is not, in fact, a long-term IT strategy.
[3]
[4]
The shift to Windows 11 is a big part of what finally forced the issue. As Microsoft steadily tightens the screws on older versions of Windows, IT departments are being left with little choice but to replace machines that can't meet the new OS's hardware requirements, whether or not they have any interest in Copilot, neural processing units, or other AI-flavored extras.
[5]Turns out the end of Windows 10 is good for something: The PC refresh cycle
[6]HP bottom line fattens up on a diet of AI PCs and Windows 11
[7]AI don't know: Enterprises slow to pick up on Copilot+ PCs
[8]You DO see Windows 11 as an AI PC opportunity, say Dell and Intel
That fits with recent findings from [9]Context , which found that buyers still put the basics first when choosing PCs. Price, battery life, and performance continue to matter far more than whether a laptop can accelerate a chatbot locally, with AI still generally treated as a nice-to-have rather than a deciding factor.
PC makers saw a late-year boost as businesses moved purchases forward to get ahead of expected component price increases, particularly in memory, according to Gartner's numbers. That scramble played to the strengths of the usual incumbents.
Lenovo held on to the top spot globally, shipping about 19.4 million units in the quarter, while HP moved roughly 15.4 million and Dell around 11.7 million, all increasing their share versus a year earlier.
[10]
The result is a PC recovery that looks healthy on paper but is conservative in character. For most organizations, the upgrades are happening out of necessity rather than excitement. Windows 11 deadlines, security requirements, and the slow grind of fleet obsolescence are doing far more work than any marketing pitch about on-device intelligence.
If AI PCs are meant to spark a new upgrade supercycle, the data suggests they'll have to wait their turn behind the far less fashionable forces of compliance, manageability, and machines that simply don't crash when you unplug them. ®
Get our [11]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-1-20-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-increased-9-point-3-percent-in-fourth-quarter-of-2025-and-9-point-1-percent-for-the-full-year#:~:text=In%202025%2C%20the%20PC%20market,only%20modest%20gains%20in%202024.
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aW-0way3IhlD6cYrxJ7CLwAAAsc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aW-0way3IhlD6cYrxJ7CLwAAAsc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aW-0way3IhlD6cYrxJ7CLwAAAsc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/17/windows_10_upgrades_lifts_global_pc_shipments/
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2025/08/29/hp_ai_pc_windows_11/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/28/copilot_pc_sales_grow_slowly/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/25/ai_propostion_windows_11_pc_vendors/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/19/price_battery_life_performance_pc/
[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aW-0way3IhlD6cYrxJ7CLwAAAsc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[11] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Just wait for Windows 12
Jou (Mxyzptlk)
Wait, the bouncing animation in Solitaire was NOT AI?
Re: AI Solitaire
MiguelC
[1]Of course it had to exist... AI is the new [2]rule 34
[1] https://store.steampowered.com/app/2301670/AI_Solitaire/
[2] https://tropedia.fandom.com/wiki/Rule_34
Re: AI Solitaire
Jou (Mxyzptlk)
Oops, sorry! An error was encountered while processing your request: This item is currently unavailable in your region
Looks llike steam protects me :D
MiguelC
Re: "businesses discovering that a five-year-old laptop running on borrowed time is not, in fact, a long-term IT strategy."
My 5+ year old work laptop (7th gen i7) was doing perfectly all right, there was absolutely no need for an upgrade but for the lack of TPM
Just wait for Windows 12
and all that Gartner postulation will go down the sewer. with it supposedly being Subscription Only, users will lose what little control they have left of the bits of kit that run their businesses.
The [cough][cough] push for AI in everything (I'm waiting for an AI Solitaire) will IMHO backfire bigtime once people start seeing the crappiness of the results and the potential legal liability of them going forward. Linus had it spot on when he used the words 'AI Slop'.