Trump administration sets GPU export rules that put Chinese buyers at the back of the queue
- Reference: 1768360870
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2026/01/14/us_gpu_export_rules/
- Source link:
Recent US policy has restricted exports of advanced GPUs to China, on grounds that the Middle Kingdom can use them for military purposes. That ban meant Nvidia could not export its H200 accelerator to China. The company responded by creating the H20, a crippled version of the H200.
The Trump administration later banned exports of the H20, to prevent China improving its AI capabilities. Nvidia later said that decision cost it over $10 billion in sales.
[1]
The administration then [2]reversed the ban and promised to allow H200 sales into China subject to certain conditions.
[3]
[4]
On Tuesday, the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) revealed those conditions in a [5]filing [PDF] that explains it will allow Nvidia and AMD to apply to export their H200 and MI325X models if they meet four criteria:
There is sufficient supply of this product in the United States;
Production of this product for exports to China will not divert global foundry capacity for similar or more advanced products for end users in the United States;
The recipient of the GPUs has demonstrated sufficient security procedures and passed know your customer checks;
The item undergoes independent, third-party testing in the United States to verify its performance specifications.
There’s also a requirement for any shipments to China to “be no more than 50% of the total product shipped to customers for end use in the United States of that product.”
AMD and Nvidia will also have to produce a list of remote users located within, or controlled by a parent company from, Belarus, China, Cuba, Iran, Macau, North Korea, Russia, and Venezuela.
The BIS will conduct a case-by-case review of every application to export and says the new rules are necessary “to ensure the national security benefits of U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence.”
[6]Cloud to be an American: Congress votes to kick China off remote GPU services
[7]The world is one bad decision away from a silicon ice age
[8]China to probe Meta’s acquisition of AI outfit Manus
[9]Pay and pray: Nvidia reportedly wants money up front for Chinese H200 orders
Nvidia and AMD launched the H200 and MI325X in 2024, and the devices do not use their most advanced architectures. If Chinese buyers pass the BIS’s test and can acquire the machines, they will therefore acquire less powerful chips than those available to US buyers – potentially preserving the USA’s lead if China doesn’t catch up with homegrown GPUs.
Or perhaps not, as Chinese hyperscalers and AI companies have often found ways to do more with less, as was the case with [10]DeepSeek and Alibaba Cloud, which [11]found a way to lift GPU utilization rates.
[12]
Shares in AMD and Nvidia stayed flat on Tuesday, suggesting investors don’t see the new rules as likely to deliver a flood of sales and revenue. ®
Get our [13]Tech Resources
[1] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aWlxoc7BH6GFd-7mXQbOnAAAAMQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/09/trump_gpu_export_ban_reversal/?_gl=1*90lhn5*_ga*MTI0MjE1MDMxNS4xNzE5OTg5NTg5*_ga_JXW44Y23NM*czE3NjgzNTY1NDQkbzE3NjAkZzEkdDE3NjgzNTczMjAkajMzJGwwJGgw
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aWlxoc7BH6GFd-7mXQbOnAAAAMQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aWlxoc7BH6GFd-7mXQbOnAAAAMQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-00789.pdf
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/13/congress_votes_china_gpu_cloud/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/12/silicon_shield_versus_silicon_winter/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/09/china_probes_meta_manus_acquisition/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/08/nvidia_h200_china/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/19/deepseek_cost_train/
[11] http://www.theregister.com/2025/10/21/alibaba_aegaeon_gpu_scheduling_improvements/
[12] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aWlxoc7BH6GFd-7mXQbOnAAAAMQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
There's a bit more to it than that: China's chips aren't that good yet, and they won't be better than American ones any time soon, but they're good enough and power supply is much less of an issue than it's turning out to be in America.
they won't be better than American ones any time soon
I wouldn't bet on that, that was said about their electric cars and robots as well and that wasn't that long ago.
Added to that the Chinese don't seem to be afflicted with tunnel vision, so quickly ramp up trials of different ideas till they find one that hits.
The big issue is really foundry capacity. You can have the best designs in the world, but if you can't produce them in volume then you are stuck.
If Taiwan does get bombed off the planet in the near future, either by China or the US, it will be the West that suffers far more as their economies implode.
The other half of the planet, likely those buying Russian and Iranian oil currently, will just trade amongst themselves and carry on regardless.
> any shipments to China to “be no more than 50% of the total product shipped to customers for end use in the United States of that product.”
Since the H20 and H200 were designed to be less powerful and are not sold in the US surely that means they still can't be sold in China?
I'm confused on how...
...will America ban anything being exported from Taiwan or South Korea to China. Aren't the the chip fabs all over there?
[reads on Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR)]
...nevermind.
Re: I'm confused on how...
When push comes to shove, it will be China preventing Taiwan chips going to the US by blockade.
China doesn't care, it now makes its own GPU's that are 90% as good as the best US ones, and cost 50% less.
In a few short years it will have leapfrogged the US ones, and Trump will be to blame for their superiority.