Memory shortages will likely stunt PC shipments in 2026, as available supplies will not be able to meet demand thanks to memory makers chasing the lucrative AI infrastructure market instead.

Overall PC market performance in 2025 was healthy, according to research biz Omdia, but it notes that memory and storage supply was already tightening, with associated upward price pressure emerging around the middle of last year.

By December, PC vendors were signaling their expectations of price increases, and this is dampening expectations for the volume of shipments during 2026.

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"Between Q1 and Q4 2025, mainstream PC memory and storage costs rose by 40 percent to 70 percent, resulting in cost increases being passed through to customers," said Omdia Principal Analyst Ben Yeh.

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As The Register [4]recently reported , shortages are being caused by the memory chip manufacturers reallocating manufacturing capacity to output more of the high-margin server DRAM and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips instead of mainstream DDR. Those components are in high demand to kit out AI servers and the accelerators needed for the AI investment boom.

PC makers such as Dell and Lenovo were also [5]warning in December of "unprecedented cost increases" that meant they were planning to up the price tags on their products. The alternative is to ship configurations with less memory, which risks disappointing buyers who may find that their PC's performance doesn't match expectations.

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"Given tight 2026 supply, the industry is emphasizing high-end SKUs and leaner mid- to low-tier configurations to protect margins," Yeh added.

But with memory supplies unable to meet demand, something will have to give.

"Actual shipment performance will hinge on vendors' memory and storage procurement and negotiating leverage; beyond scale, their track records and credibility with suppliers will be a decisive factor in determining their success in navigating this period of complexity," Yeh said.

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If we're reading that right, it means there is going to be stiff competition between the PC makers for whatever memory is available, and that typically means those prepared to pay the most are likely to win, again pushing up prices.

As a result, Taiwanese market watcher TrendForce has reduced its [8]global projection for laptop shipments in 2026 to indicate a 5.4 percent decrease compared with 2025, making for an estimated 173 million units in total.

[9]The world is one bad decision away from a silicon ice age

[10]While you pay through the nose for memory, Samsung expects to triple its profits in Q4

[11]Mem-ageddon: AI chip frenzy to wallop DRAM prices with 70% hike

[12]Smartphones face a memory cost crunch – and buyers aren't in the mood

This could have an impact on Windows 11 uptake, as the platform is more demanding than the previous version, Windows 10, and buyers may be put off trading in their old laptop by the high cost of a replacement system. Windows 11 has [13]not significantly increased its market share over the older version since support for it ended in October.

Typically, when memory prices start rising as demand is outstripping supply, the chip manufacturers increase production to capitalize on it. The upshot is that prices fall again, and there may eventually be a glut of memory chips – the so-called boom-bust cycle.

However, analysts think this is this [14]unlikely to happen this time.

Despite this crunch, a November 2025 poll by Omdia of B2B channel vendors found that 57 percent were still forecasting growth during 2026. Optimism reigns supreme.

Last year, Lenovo was the top PC vendor in terms of shipments, accounting for just over a quarter of the market. HP was second, with just over 20 percent, while Dell made up 15 percent, Apple just under 10 percent, and Asus 7.2 percent. ®

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[4] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/06/memory_firm_profits_up_as/

[5] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/04/server_prices_15_percent_jump_memory_costs/

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[8] https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20251230-12854.html

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/12/silicon_shield_versus_silicon_winter/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/08/samsung_memory_profits/

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/06/memory_firm_profits_up_as/

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/16/smartphones_memory_ai/

[13] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/03/windows_11_statcounter/

[14] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/20/memory_prices_dram/

[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/