The world is one bad decision away from a silicon ice age
- Reference: 1768221885
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2026/01/12/silicon_shield_versus_silicon_winter/
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Six months and six weeks are as nothing to 2026, which took just three days to increase the chances that everything tech will look back to now as a lost golden age of availability and affordability. America's actions in [1]abducting Venezuela's president while threatening to annex Greenland are many things, but let's concentrate on the simultaneous rejection of international laws and the concept of alliance.
AWS raises GPU prices 15% on a Saturday, hopes you weren't paying attention [2]READ MORE
Such abdication can only embolden other proponents of direct military action as primary national policy. This most certainly includes China, which just [3]celebrated Christmas by conducting huge live-fire invasion exercises around Taiwan . President Xi Jinping is widely believed to have [4]2027 in mind for the actual invasion , which is bad news for Taiwan, but especially so for TSMC.
American doctrine here, as far as such a thing exists, is to [5]reduce its fab yields to zero by using 2,000 lb kinetic contaminants via the B-2 bomber deposition process to turn them back into the sand from whence they came. This would destroy more than half the world's silicon supply and almost all of the latest circuits that drive the most active sectors in IT. It would take ten years to rebuild, assuming that this could even be done with the revenue taps turned off, the world economy in massive recession, and infrastructure scattered to the winds.
Such an event would be orders of magnitude greater than the 2021 chip supply chain sclerosis. That cost the worldwide automotive industry alone some $200 billion. Estimates vary on how much damage would be done to the world economy by the combination of chip supply chain collapse and sanctions post-invasion, with [6]economists thinking between $5 trillion and $15 trillion . With Nvidia and Apple having a combined market cap of some $8 trillion and a shared existential reliance on the status quo, such estimates may even be optimistic. The silicon winter will be long and hard.
[7]
An actual optimistic view of the situation is that China would be among the hardest hit economically by such a universal depression. TSMC actually creates a so-called Silicon Shield, dissuading aggression. It's a comforting and plausible thought, but impossible to quantify. Xi has been resolute in calling and preparing for invasion, but is also resolute in maintaining internal stability, built to a great extent on economic growth.
[8]Your smart TV is watching you and nobody's stopping it
[9]The Roomba failed because it just kind of sucked
[10]Legal protection for ethical hacking under Computer Misuse Act is only the first step
[11]Whatever legitimate places AI has, inside an OS ain't one
How that equation works out is unknown. One of the better explanations of Chinese political motivation is Dan Wang's 2025 Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. This points out that the upper levels of Chinese leadership have been largely composed of engineers who see governance as a series of technical issues to be solved in the molding of the nation. The US is more run by lawyers, concerned with regulation and process. How long this latter analysis remains true in 2026 is to be seen, although Wang's argument that a synthesis of the two approaches is unlikely to be tested. In engineering terms, gain and stability often work against each other, and that seems as useful an encapsulation of China's approach to Taiwan as any.
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One final factor, perversely, is the recognition of the dangers of reliance on Taiwanese semiconductors. Europe, the US, and Japan are pouring state funds and encouraging other investments into local fabs capable of decoupling their economies to some extent from Taiwanese production. If this works, it will decrease the effectiveness of the Silicon Shield and change the invasion equation. It's not clear that this will work, nor if so by when – another destabilizing factor.
The final and most worrying concept is that the US's own highest levels of policy deciders will see the loss of Taiwan as a cost to be borne. There is a great air of American supremacy, along the lines of "I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed," and that chaos is in America's own interests. It is unlikely that Greenlanders would find this implausible.
[13]
For now, it seems unlikely that the worst case will come to pass. It's just impossible to know how long now will last. On a pragmatic level, the question is whether it's worth turning into a digital prepper and buying the fattest, fastest tech you can afford right now, even as prices plump up. There may be a 20-year upgrade cycle coming. Still, look on the bright side. You'll be able to stop worrying about that AI bubble. ®
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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/05/starlink_free_service_venezuela/
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/05/aws_price_increase/
[3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c87l7xjp235o
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davidson_window
[5] https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/trumps-undersecretary-of-defense-for-policy-repeatedly-said-tsmc-fabs-should-be-destroyed-if-china-invades-taiwan/
[6] https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2024/01/11/755295.htm
[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aWUorQikQXIQDYnSZ2DvOQAAARM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/05/smart_tv_surveillance_opinion/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/22/irobot_opinion/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/15/cma_update_opinion/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/02/agentic_os_opinion/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/08/samsung_memory_profits/
[13] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aWUorQikQXIQDYnSZ2DvOQAAARM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[14] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Probably too much to hope for …
an American patriot of the calibre of old Ankh·Morpork's Suffer-Not-Injustice "Old Stoneface" Vimes to take his glaive and indulge in a little light regicide ?
Re: Not at the moment
@MrBanana
"No, The US is now run by lawyers and other political shills, with a total disregard for regulation and process."
Well said. As we have seen with the exposures of the federal government over the last decade and the very close call of having Walz as VP. Things could have turned out so much worse for America.
Re: Not at the moment
The USA is the biggest threat to the world today.
And for anyone who thinks or says otherwise, it is not (just) Trump. He has huge support from right wing 'Christian' nutters. These same supporters demand 'support' (i.e. socialism) when their farms go bust because they can't compete, but decry socialised medicine. They have a strong 'hate gene' within them.
How silent Europe was when the USA illegally invaded Venezuela to steal their oil. Was Maduro a good president? I don't know. But I know that Venezuela and its resources do not belong to the USA. So where are the sanctions for this blatant theft?
Trump threatens to invade Greenland, and the 'top' powers in European NATO threaten to send a nasty letter to him. Tut tut tut.
The USA is the biggest danger to the world today. It is not our friend. It is not our ally. European 'governments' are petty princedoms.
Re: Not at the moment
Given the utter dependence of European governments on a small handful of US corporations for running day-to-day operations there's very little they can do but tut loudly. Digital extraction, in more senses then one, is needed.
Looking at the glass half full
Without going into details about the reason why PRC should/should not (try to) invade ROC, the bright side would be that less electronics will be stuffed into cars and appliances.
Re: Looking at the glass half full: The Brighter Side
> the bright[er] side would be that less electronics will be stuffed into cars and appliances...
...F35s, J20s....
I thought that…
I’d heard that it was deployment of strategically placed thermite charges?
On a pragmatic level
> On a pragmatic level, the question is whether it's worth turning into a digital prepper and buying the fattest, fastest tech you can afford right now,
And don't neglect installing your games locally and DRM free - cos you ain't using that fat box on line for long if your government gets twitchy or cancelled!
Re: On a pragmatic level
Or get into some 'offline' hobbies like woodworking, gardening or learn how to weld or work on cars or make a baby, you will have no more enough free time to use a computer in a way that requires 'up-to-date' hardware. ;-p
Re: On a pragmatic level
Does it count if I can get [1]Garden Simulator running off line? I think "making a baby" is a bit more expensive than upgrading a rig. For now anyhoo...
[1] https://store.steampowered.com/app/1403310/Garden_Simulator/
Re: On a pragmatic level "learn how to … make a baby,"
Has the polloi in the US reached a level of deficiency that requires a Dummy's or Complete Idiot's guide for that ?
Not much hope then as illiteracy is the usual accompaniment to the dummy or idiot (complete or otherwise.)
How on earth did they manage to plug a charger into their phones in the past ?
Oh. Apple owners: lightening; the rest: the reason for USB-C. :)
This might be the last good year for buying hardware
With the RAM prices already up?
Did you mean to headline:
> Last year might have been the last good year for buying hardware (and it is only going to get so much worse); but you didn't stock up last year, did you? Better get to it then.
Well, there is a silver lining then
All those datacenters for ever more pseud-AI "assistants" and user-data storage are going to go down the tubes then, and Borkzilla & Co are going to have to start actually optimizing what they've got, instead of just blindly adding racks to ever more energy-and-resource-gobbling useless buildings situated in tax-haven deserts (looking at you Texas, Utah and every other state who depends on the dying Colorado river for their water needs - if they can even keep those running).
Forget the consumerware
If you think the only thing to worry about is your next mobile phone / gaming computer / fridge if we enter a chip production dark period then people aren't thinking clearly.
Everything and I mean pretty much everything runs on silicon today.
- production lines in factories (tech, food, basic commodities)
- tractors / farming equipment
- military kit
- telecoms kit
- supermarkets
- power facilities
- water facilities
- mass transportation
if things break, which they do a lot in the real world, expect massive disruption and the impact cascades into everything - it could be a descent into the dark ages. We can't just roll back to the 1940/50/60/70/80/90's, too much relies on advanced chipsets and the replacement of them when they break, including the software running over the top.
Re: Forget the consumerware
In some ways, covid offered a glimpse of what would happen. Not exactly the same. Covid was more about people interaction. A glimpse of supply chain disruption caused be loss of TSMC and its follow on effects. I'd say time to go out and get some of those prepper meals, but water? Unless you have a well, where is that coming from. Inflation will be rampant as too few goods being chased by hungry people.
I've some hope as the R Tillis in North Carolina seems to be getting a backbone. Perhaps if other R's realize their legacy was starting WWIII, maybe they will get a backbone too. Although may be too late. Now Trump is sabre rattling both Iran and Mexico. So if we add in Greenland threats and the VZ actions well, he just seems to be getting more Hitler every day.
Re: Getting a Backbone
Tom Tillis is only speaking out because he's not standing for re-election in November. Like MTG, making that decision gives them the freedom to go after Drumpf and his henchmen.
The rest of the GOP on the Hill are spineless wimps who are afraid of their own shadows let alone 'The Donald', the defacto 'ruler of the world
As for the cost/shortage of silicon... The usual suspects will have all they need in order to build their AI DC's in the hope that they can charge us extortionate prices to read an email, browse the web, all the time sending every keystroke, mouse action to their LLM's so that they can send even more crappy, useless adverts our way. FSCK the lot of them.
There may be a 20-year upgrade cycle coming
The upside is that maintenance, parts recycling and repair become a thing again, which also advantages the smaller operator.
"Big Tech" is largely dependent in rapid, if largely illusory growth and expansion, to keep their dubious valuations and share price on an unsustainable upward trajectory so as to keep their marks investors throwing bucketloads of cash at their ponzi schemes.
Even a small or temporary disruption to the feedstock of this unsavoury process might well topple the largest enterprises much like Barings Bank in the wake of the Kobe earthquake. (With a little help from a chap who arguably was not too dissimilar to the drongos running big tech today.)
Why would China upset the apple cart?
Why would China do anything militarily, when it is destroying the West economically? Today, the US is abdicating, or worse, all of its international agreements and allies outside of the western hemisphere. In effect, it is trading off its position as a global power in order to exert more control over South and Central America (total GDP < $5T, or about 5% of world GDP).
The US is also walking away from, or even destroying, investments in solar and wind energy. As solar/wind + batteries become the cheapest sources of power, the US will have locked itself out of the most abundant and most flexible (WRT solar and batteries at least) forms of power production.
The EU seems to have a coordination problem, barely acting against Russia (China's vassal state), which is attacking Europe along its eastern border, as if ignoring the problem will make it go away. And right now now, China is dumping manufactured good into Europe at such a rate that the EU will need to work hard to fight off deindustrialization.
In this environment, why should China do something so shocking that it might snap the west out of its stupor, when its competitors are surrendering the future in their sleep? Attacking Taiwan would be the strategic equivalent of Japan's 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor, potentially uniting its opponents in a way unlike any other.
Re: Why would China upset the apple cart?
You are assuming EU would trust trump. If I was EU I would not. I'd assume he'd screw the EU just well, for fun. And I say that as a US citizen. EU might be better off forging an agreement to be neutral with China than joining US. As I said above, hopefully the US R's grow a spine. Tillis seems to be getting one, although retiring, so not worried about re-election. Apparently trump's now real investigation into the Fed chair was what pushed Tillis over the edge. I could also see some of Trump's latest actions hitting the R's hard and finally getting a spine. His 10% cap on card interest, his restriction on corp buying of homes, and I imagine other stuff as well has the CEO class on edge. A class that put him where he is. He has apparently patched things up with musko though.
Re: Why would China upset the apple cart?
Quiite so. The US has made it patently clear since Trump II that it is NOT our ally - nor indeed anyone else's.
Re: Why would China upset the apple cart?
" The US has made it patently clear since Trump II that it is NOT our [EU] ally - nor indeed anyone else's. " — nor paradoxically of US itself.
If an individual behaved in the same way a the US nation state they would be considered a very sick puppy and urgently confined for their own and every else's safety.
Re: Why would China upset the apple cart?
China holds so much US Debt that selling even 50% of it will cause a crash on Wall St that will dwarf the one of 1929. I mean, a crash that is 3-5 orders of magnitude higher. That crash will spread around the world. Mass unemployment, starvation and civil unrest.
That will in turn tank the already fragile Chinese Economy.
Yet some in the US Governemt are saying 'Bring it on'. They have their private islands and gold reserves ready to sit it out.
Re: Why would China upset the apple cart?
If the communist party claims to be the legitimate government of china they are on the hook for about 1 Trillion USD debt from the ROC government.
Its just ink on paper like most of these 'big numbers' but if they attack/invade ROC (assuming they can make it) I think this number will become relevant.
Re: Why would China upset the apple cart?
Yet some in the US Governemt are saying 'Bring it on'. They have their private islands and gold reserves ready to sit it out.
If you damage any system badly enough it crosses a boundary where repair and recovery aren't possible and the system effectly dies cf cellular injury and the necrotic path.
So that might mean these reptillian dragons squatting over their hoards of gold on their private islands might ultimately be forced to ponder the edibility of gold.
The planet's supply chains, just for food, are intrinsically more fragile than possibly any other time in history.
The disruption to the global food supply resulting from a relatively limited conflict in Ukraine magnified a hundred·fold or more should terrify any rational individual.
Re: Why would China upset the apple cart?
"should terrify any rational individual."
What a pity there's a shortage of them running the US.
Re: Why would China upset the apple cart?
The UK holds about as much US debt as China and Japan owns nearly twice as much.
Luxembourg and the Cayman islands own nearly as much each and nobody is terrified of the threat of Luxembourg
But the vast majority of US debt is owned by Americans
The world would really do well to deal with China and Russia the way we just handled Venezuela. The Chinese and Russian governments should cease existance. The world would be far better off. Let's hope Europe can see this. They seem to be too busy with cutting off their own citizens rights though.
Not at the moment
"The US is more run by lawyers, concerned with regulation and process"
No, The US is now run by lawyers and other political shills, with a total disregard for regulation and process.