Tired of sky-high memory prices? Buckle up, we're in this for the long haul
- Reference: 1766228474
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/12/20/memory_prices_dram/
- Source link:
DRAM is an incredibly broad category and includes everything from the DDR5 found in desktops and servers to the GDDR7 and HBM used by graphics cards and AI accelerators.
The market is also notoriously volatile and prone to wild swings in pricing, spiking as inventories are drawn down and cratering as new capacity is brought online, Sanders explains.
[1]
As chip markets go, DRAM is about as volatile as they get. - Click to enlarge
According to TechInsights, memory pricing was already on the rise in 2024, growing 88 percent from a rather steep valley the year prior. Based on previous DRAM booms, one might expect it to grow at a slower pace in 2025, before contracting in 2026 or 2027.
However, Sanders tells us that's unlikely to happen this time around. "I think we're looking at the peak in 2026," he said, adding that even then he only expects DRAM prices to settle in 2027 before rising again in 2028.
[2]
So what's to blame for the sky-high memory prices? Well, as you might have already guessed, it's AI. But it's not the full story. Timing is also a factor.
[3]
[4]
According to Sanders, the AI boom kicked off at what was very possibly the worst time for memory vendors. "This demand started in the Valley for the DRAM industry. That makes financially trying to build additional capacity really challenging," he said. "If you're rushing, the time to bring additional capacity online is about three years. It's a quirk of bad timing that's led to the circumstances that we're in now."
More realistically, DRAM vendors, like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are looking at four or five years to ramp production at a new fab, at which time the market conditions could have changed considerably.
[5]
Timing is also why the DRAM shortage is hitting some harder than others. "The consumer market is in the stratosphere, whereas OEMs are about a year out, and they're not getting heartburn quite yet," he explained.
In other words, giant hardware vendors like Dell and HP aren't suffering nearly as much because they tend to lock in their orders early, while smaller vendors are at the mercy of spot pricing. In fact, ahead of the Christmas holiday, G.Skill, a supplier of memory for gamers, issued a [6]statement pinning the blame for jacking the price of its products on AI.
"DRAM prices are experiencing significant industry-wide volatility, due to severe global supply constraints and shortages, driven by unprecedented high demand from the AI industry," the company wrote. "As a result, G.Skill procurement and sourcing costs have substantially increased. G.Skill pricing reflects industry-wide component cost increases from IC suppliers and is subject to change without notice based on market conditions."
[7]
What's more, AI is driving demand for a different class of memory that, unlike traditional DRAM, isn't much use in most consumer applications.
"This is a little bit different from previous boom-bust cycles, in that wafers are being redirected toward HBM and away from consumer-grade memory," Sanders said.
High-bandwidth memory consists of multiple layers of DRAM, which as the name implies, enables it to achieve much higher bandwidth than a typical DRAM module you might find in a notebook or RDIMM. With HBM3e, it's not uncommon to see a single 36 GB chip deliver 1 TB/s of bandwidth. By comparison, a single 8 GB LPDDR5x module might be able to achieve 140 GB/s.
HBM is used almost exclusively in high-end datacenter GPUs and AI accelerators, like Nvidia's B300, AMD's MI355X, or Amazon's Trainium3. Because of this, Sanders says, the memory market is rapidly diverging.
"Because there's no consumer demand for HBM — the consumer market can't bear that price at all — it is really becoming two markets that are detached from each other," he said.
Memory vendors are currently in the midst of a memory transition as they prepare to ramp production of HBM4 modules, which will power chips like Nvidia's Vera Rubin and AMD's MI400s starting next year. Initially, Sanders says these chips will command a price premium.
And while TechInsights does expect the memory market to settle in 2027, it won't last. As you may recall, Nvidia plans to cram 576 Rubin-Ultra GPUs each equipped with a terabyte of HBM4e memory into a single rack starting in, that's right, 2027.
This might explain why Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra recently told investors that due to strong AI datacenter demand, "aggregate industry supply will remain [8]substantially short of the demand for the foreseeable future."
Not that he's really complaining. While end customers are grappling with memory prices that have gone up 3x in just a few months, the memory fabs are raking in the cash. In Micron's Q1 2026 earnings call this month, the company saw revenues rise 56 percent while net income more than doubled from $1.87 billion this time last year to $5.24 billion.
And while memory vendors may now have the capital necessary to finance additional fabs, it'll be at least three more years before they enter production. And even when they do, the bulk of capacity is likely to be allocated toward HBM and other enterprise products.
[9]Micron says memory shortages are here for the foreseeable future
[10]The future of long-term data storage is clear and will last 14 billion years
[11]Micron ditches consumer memory brand Crucial to chase AI riches
[12]Cheaper 1 GB Raspberry Pi 5 lands as memory costs go through the roof
One wildcard in all of this is China's CXMT, Sanders explains.
"CXMT doesn't necessarily play by the same set of rules that everyone else does," he explained.
For one, they don't have any meaningful HBM output at this time. Second, many had expected the company to focus heavily on DDR4, but instead, Sanders says the company now appears to be transitioning to DDR5.
Today, CXMT isn't a very large player in the DRAM business. It certainly doesn't help that the company is subject to United States export controls. Despite this, TechInsights expects the company to grow considerably by the end of the decade from five to 10 percent of the market, which should in theory help grow the supply of DDR5 overall. ®
Get our [13]Tech Resources
[1] https://regmedia.co.uk/2025/12/18/dram_market_history.png
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/storage&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aUbWKqjWe42KKeGUy_96sQAAAYo&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/storage&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aUbWKqjWe42KKeGUy_96sQAAAYo&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/storage&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aUbWKqjWe42KKeGUy_96sQAAAYo&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/storage&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aUbWKqjWe42KKeGUy_96sQAAAYo&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.gskill.com/community/1502239313/1765875574/Why-has-G.SKILL-DRAM-memory-prices-increased-so-much-recently-since-2025-Q4
[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/storage&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aUbWKqjWe42KKeGUy_96sQAAAYo&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/18/micron_q1_2026/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/18/micron_q1_2026/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/14/sphotonix_moves_5d_memory_crystal/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/03/micron_cuts_crucial/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/12/01/raspberry_pi_5_1gb/
[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Good timing for purchasing my new computer
This is insane. I bought 64GB of RAM just one year ago:
02/12/2024 - Kingston FURY Impact SO-DIMM DDR5 5600MHz 64GB 2x32GB CL40 - 203.48€ (VAT included).
Right now. Same vendor:
20/12/2025 - Kingston FURY Impact SO-DIMM DDR5 5600MHz 64GB 2x32GB CL40 - 939.48€ (VAT included).
I built a full home "miniserver" with a Ryzen 7, 2x4TB NVME storage and the aforementioned 64GB of RAM for the price the two fscking sticks are selling now.
This is a joke.
Re: Good timing for purchasing my new computer
I'm literally sitting here running in a new rig. It's got a whopping, wait for it, 16 gig on it - all the budget could take at the mo. Not even top of the shop (PC5-48000). From Scan, where the same at 64GB is currently £699.98, Chrimbo special down from £799.99! If you want pretty lights on it (duh!) it's £760.99. I spent about a month deciding exactly what specs to go for, because I had to keep changing spec virtually every day as I was watching the price shift. Pop that bubble FFS!
Confused.com
So if AI/HBM and Consumer/DDR are two detached markets - why is exceptional future demand for HBM causing a current shortage in DDR? Two different markets should be reflected in two different investment cycles. Particularly because one is even more riskier than the other.
Certainly consumer demand (like mine) is cratering right now because of the surge. This should suggest inventories are rising. AI being an excuse for price gouging by a cartel? Surely not? Or could Win11 be blamed - why not? The standard retail environment has shifted from 8GB to 16GB desktops and laptops. A doubling in demand.
Re: Confused.com
My understanding is that the markets may be separate but the factories are not. Put simply, those manufacturers who make memory are switching production to where the majority demand is - thus causing a lack of supply for the consumer market - and hence prices going up for that market. As the article notes, bringing additional capacity online takes years and the historical fluctuation in prices has meant no-one has committed to building excess capacity to take advantage of times such as now.
Gouging older DRAM
Extra stupid are people trying to scam you by hiking the prices on old stock of DDR3 "because all memory prices are going up".
Soon enough, it becomes better value to just stop using those older boxes, give in, buy a new mainboard and pay the same inflated prices for DDR5. The price for the mainboard is made up for by the increase in performance and in comparison to the cost of the RAM now is barely anything.
Re: Gouging older DRAM
Extra stupid are people trying to scam you by hiking the prices on old stock of DDR3 "because all memory prices are going up".
Asking for money is not sign of stupidity. It is not scam either to raise prices.
DDR3 mass production has ended and stock getting scarcer. Used memory sticks will be available for a long time.
If you blindly pay high price for commodities you could get cheaper elsewhere, I would use the age-old saying "A fool and his money are soon parted."
Soon enough, it becomes better value to just stop using those older boxes, give in, buy a new mainboard and pay the same inflated prices for DDR5.
Nothing new here. This same cycle has happened before.
Re: Gouging older DRAM
> If you blindly pay high price for commodities you could get cheaper elsewhere
So you missed the
>> buy a new mainboard and pay the same inflated prices for DDR5
Where the high prices for DDR3 are not being paid *at all*? And as for "cheaper elsewhere": 'tis the season to be scalping, so the people with the bots are getting in before the average guy. No doubt you applaud that as well.
No, you saw it, quoted it; but didn't understand it.
> Asking for money is not sign of stupidity.
Yes, it is - because, to repeat, the overpriced DDR3 is not worth buying, so they just have made themselves unsaleable - whilst still bearing the costs of holding and advertising that stock.
> It is not scam either to raise prices.
Yes, yes it is. When you are deliberately trying to rip someone off by price gouging.
To go back to:
> Asking for money is not sign of stupidity
Well, I'm keeping a list of the people doing this (and not just DRAM - this time of year scalping is rampant) only to make sure that we never use them as a source for any purchases in the future. Although, I did have a nasty moment when someone bought from "Rarewaves" (who will overinflate everything, from DRAM to LEGO) - a strong caution was passed on, that won't happen again.
> Nothing new here.
True, ripoff merchants and other lowlives keep cropping up.
And it is always worth reminding people, to keep the buyer on their toes. Bit of an odd attitude you are expressing, to just shrug your shoulders; mates of yours are they?
Re: Gouging older DRAM
"No, you saw it, quoted it; but didn't understand it."
Why don't you post in your pen name here? What are you afraid of?
"> Asking for money is not sign of stupidity."
"Yes, it is - because, to repeat, the overpriced DDR3 is not worth buying, so they just have made themselves unsaleable - whilst still bearing the costs of holding and advertising that stock."
Some people will still have to buy DDR3 to support old computers, and the stuff isn't manufactured anymore. You didn't seem to understand my point about scarcity. Same with any old stuff that still has some use, be it ATA drives, AT motherboards and so on.
The market will settle to certain level where the sellers get the maximum return. If a reseller mistakenly prices themselves out, luckily we have competition and even second hand market. You seem to want to live in planned economy where the prices are dictated by the government. Hasn't worked well in the past.
"Yes, yes it is. When you are deliberately trying to rip someone off by price gouging."
Price gouging is not scamming, no matter what you claim. There is no deception. Memory resellers are found everywhere and you are not beholden to a single reseller.
"I'm keeping a list of the people doing this"
Good for you.
"mates of yours are they?"
Merry fucking christmas to you too.
Demand
Who could have predicted that there will be demand for memory?
Who?
Imagine going to the boss:
"Boss, the demand for RAM will be huge. We should build a new factory!"
Boss: "Are you out of your mind? 640kB is plenty for everyone, now go back soldering fool."
Re: Demand
Boss If we increase supply then prices will drop and then we would have to slash our markets and shareholder pleasing exponentiqly increasing profit margins Why on earth would we do that peon?
PA: Your opposite number at
Worker : - you are aware that this could be viewed as an anti competitive cartel?"
Boss : this isn't a cartel this is coincidentally aligned pricing strategies, also you are surplus to requirements, now buzz off, I'm expecting the trade and justice ministers to be on this call, to discuss how critical we are to national security
Re: Demand
Worker: lets bring all memory families downtown and we should decide making one chip a year each. We'll have time to go fishing and we work few days in a year.
Micron and samsung are running their DIMM factories at less than 25% capacity to drive up prices.
They're hoping that AI companies will buy a crapload of memory, THEN they increase capacity to 75%-100% and the massive delay in ordinary users buying stuff combined with a price drop/availability will result in a rush on memory purchases/motherboard upgrades "just in case prices go back up again". i.e. people buying MORE memory than they would have over the same time period if the prices hadn't risen.
They've basically formed an illegal cartel to do this all at the same time as a form of price-gouging covered up by the "cost of living crisis"
>> Micron and samsung are running their DIMM factories at less than 25% capacity to drive up prices.
Have you _any_ reference to that 25% claim?
:)
Not saying I don't believe this, but can you provide references for those of us who missed seeing where the "at less than 25% capacity" was reported.
Break up the cartel!
There are only three DRAM manufacturers, Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix.
The current price inflation is caused by these three companies operating an illegal cartel. I though that dipshit Bondi had promised:
"Immediately upon taking office, I directed the Department of Justice to fiercely pursue the total elimination of cartels and transnational criminal organizations."
Here's a clear and obvious international criminal cartel for you to go after Pam. Oh? There are too many billionaires getting even fatter from the cartel's actions for you to take it down? Shame.
Even 8Gb ddr4 parts are…
getting harder to source and expensive when you do.
If I were working where older hardware was either sent to recyclers or ewaste I would be stripping the ddr4 out - at least the larger and faster parts - potentially to reuse in newer hardware.
I was looking at refurbished W11 desktops 16Gb (2x8) and realized it would be cheaper to buy those for the ddr4 than purchase new parts.
Did the volatile American tariffs not also have a part to play? I would assume when all that was playing out production was cut. Then we have the capitalist greed factor where existing stock is ramped up in price before the actual price went up.
I was looking at an upgrade not long ago but that's going to have to wait till 2027 though I'll see if I can snag other parts cheaper between now and then.
The other thing that been said on this is that it may be that a home PC will eventually be out of reach for most people due to cost forcing everyone onto subscription based models but gamers especially. Whether this comes to pass is another matter and it's in the realms of conspiracy theory for the time being. When the expensive autocorrect (AI) bubble bursts where is all that compute going to go?
Landfill probably or the crusher and then landfill then written off as a tax loss .....
> where is all that compute going to go?
As already replied, dumped.
But it isn't as simple as "why bother trying to flog this stuff cheap to consumers, just bury it - and bury any embarrassing record that we stupid enough to buy into the bubble".
As TFA sorta notes, the DRAM in these AI barns isn't going to plug into your boring old ATX gamer's mainboard. Similarly, the CPUs are weird (ludicrous numbers of cores, which can only really be fully utilised by highly specialised algorithms or by hosting lots and lots and lots of VMs) and need different sockets (and software), the "GPUs" haven't been very "G" for a while now (all compute, no video out circuitry, no HDMI fees paid). And the different chip makers have been chucking out more and more oddities, each different from the last, which they sell en masse to a few barns before moving onto the next iteration - they aren't made to fit into existing mainboard sockets.
Unless someone ends up with a huge stash of identical parts, big enough to be worth the bother, we won't be seeing any consumer (or office worker) grade mainboards being designed to make use of all that silicon.
Good timing for purchasing my new computer
31 July, I bought 64GB of ECC RAM.
2 x 32GB Kingston KSM56E46BD8KM-32HA DDR5 5600MT/s ECC Unbuffered Memory DIMM
(KSM56E46BD8KM-32HA) £295.33 (+ £59.07 VAT)
Today, it's £489.29 for 1x32GB
[1]https://www.kingstonmemoryshop.co.uk/kingston-ksm56e46bd8km-32ha-32gb-ddr5-5600mt-s-ecc-unbuffered-memory-ram-dimm
[1] https://www.kingstonmemoryshop.co.uk/kingston-ksm56e46bd8km-32ha-32gb-ddr5-5600mt-s-ecc-unbuffered-memory-ram-dimm