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  ARM Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set fire to him and he's warm for the rest of his life (Terry Pratchett, Jingo)

The real insight behind measuring Copilot usage is Microsoft's desperation

(2025/10/20)


Opinion The quantum theory of management includes an analogy for the physical law of the observer effect, where observing a system changes its state. When you make a metric a target, it is not useful as a metric. Instead of reflecting whatever underlying behavior it was intended to measure, the metric becomes a measure of how well the benchmark is being gamed.

Thus, Microsoft including [1]Copilot uptake in its Viva Insights corporate surveillance tool as a proxy for productivity can't be anything of the sort. So what is it?

Feeling lonely? Microsoft Copilot can now listen to your every word, watch your screen [2]READ MORE

First, it is remarkable at every level. Microsoft says it creates cohorts of employees based on Microsoft's assessment of region, job function, and manager type – presumably org chart position – to "determine expected values by role." This is then normalized and compared to others both inside a company and to equivalents in other companies. Yes, Microsoft is collecting your internal company performance data and sending it to your rivals, but don't worry, it's all protected by "randomized mathematical models." Yes, it is of necessity ignoring anything that differentiates the way you work from Microsoft's idea of a theoretical mean, but that's how managerialism works.

The [3]Microsoft blog post where all this is announced is masterfully evasive, using undefined terms and lacking any sort of checkable detail, theoretical underpinning, research data, or nuance of any kind. One undefined term gives the game away, where Microsoft says: "The cohort result looks at the role composition of the selected group, and constructs a weighted average expected result based on matching roles across the tenant." Precisely what "tenant" means is not explained, but it probably shows Microsoft's thinking of Viva Insights as a multi-tenant platform with each subscribing company being a tenant.

It also reveals Microsoft breaking one of the primary rules of multi-tenant software – that each tenant is invisible to and secure from all the others. But hey, randomized mathematical models.

[4]

This sort of unaudited public usage of private data, while being the unregulated plutonium on which the experimental nuclear reactors of AI feed, precisely demands – at the very least – opt-in agreement from the harvested. There is no mention of this in the announcement, so it is safe to assume that there is nothing optional here. Of course, if organizations can exempt themselves from the system, the cross-company comparisons would fail utterly to reflect the "top 25 percent of companies" as it's quite possible that none of the actual top companies is taking part. It would fatally poison the underlying statistical model, were one to exist.

[5]

[6]

The next remarkable thing about Copilot adoption metrics in Viva Insights is that it exists at all. Corporate uptake of productivity software has been both a marketing tool and genuine guidance since desktop computing began. Software vendors love saying how popular their products are, while skeptical fans of reality look to third-party analyses to see how a market is really developing. Look at the decadal saga of Windows version adoption for a fine example. Monitoring actual usage and then integrating it into a live managerial insights dashboard is a whole new level, and highly revealing of Microsoft's internal perception of Copilot's potential for success.

Microsoft declares bring your Copilot to work day, usurping IT authority [7]READ MORE

In the same way that public awareness of software uptake is nothing new, the collection of actual usage data by software vendors is long-established and good practice. Telemetry from deployed apps showing what is and isn't being used, how much it's used and how successfully, is an essential part of life cycle management. Given the squirrelly state of so much corporate software, this isn't being used nearly enough.

[8]AI: The ultimate slacker's dream come true

[9]How Windows 11 is breaking from its bedrock and moving away

[10]Mexit, not Brexit, is the new priority for the UK

[11]When even Microsoft can't understand its own Outlook, big tech is stuck in a swamp of its own making

Yet this only gives a vendor competitive advantages when the data gathered is strictly internal. Microsoft has never seen fit to reveal live cross-corporate usage data for Excel or Visual Studio or Teams, let alone in a gamified leaderboard format. It needs to do it for Copilot, because the actual productivity gains of Copilot are [12]not quantifiable or [13]even visible . Nor are they becoming so.

Microsoft is forced to present Copilot usage by synthetic cohorts through undefined processes for undefined purposes because it is desperate to find a way to make people use the stuff. In general, people use productivity tools to the extent that it makes them more productive. You don't need to push actual usage after a sale unless there is a crisis in usage after a sale.

That general desperation across the AI industry about adoption is so thick you can virtually smell it, every time a pop-up begs you to try a feature you've ignored 30 times this week already. Microsoft is hoping that the magical thinking of managerialism – that all behavior can be quantified and optimized according to rules – will apply to anything it presents as quantifiable and optimized.

[14]

Managerialism is notoriously impervious to independent validation or rigorous derivation, which makes it ideal juju for today's culture of factual superposition: if you can't actually observe something, it's safe from analysis that may reveal something dangerous. Present a proxy for such observations, and you can synthesize behavioral metrics that the machinery of management will process like any other.

For this, Microsoft has broken the rules of multi-tenant platform management, the rules of ownership of corporate data, and the rules of consent. It is fitting that this is in the service of AI, which drinks from the same well. It is also a genuine insight into AI uptake and its future path, just not an insight that Microsoft wishes you to have. ®

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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/10/microsoft_copilot_viva_insights/

[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/16/microsoft_copilot_updates/

[3] https://techcommunity.microsoft.com/blog/viva_insights_blog/benchmarks-to-compare-copilot-adoption-coming-to-copilot-dashboard/4460432

[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aPZcl8UNVgJpqiYq6b9RswAAARU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aPZcl8UNVgJpqiYq6b9RswAAARU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aPZcl8UNVgJpqiYq6b9RswAAARU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/01/microsoft_consumer_copilot_corporate/

[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/06/at_last_microsoft_leads_the/

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/08/29/opinion_windows_11/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/08/08/opinion_column_mexit_not_brexit/

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/31/opinion_column_big_tech/

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/17/return_on_investment_for_copilot/

[13] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/04/m365_copilot_uk_government/

[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aPZcl8UNVgJpqiYq6b9RswAAARU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



Open letter to Microsoft

jake

Fuck off with your AI. We're not interested in snake-oil. Go away.

Microsoft surveillence software

Anonymous Coward

Is there any way to detect whether my employer is using Viva Insights?

If so, is there any way to then poison the data that it collects?

Re: Microsoft surveillence software

Fred Daggy

Fair to say that if a well informed insider does not know how it works and where to collect the data, then, the less tech savvy will have absolutely NO IDEA how it works and how to get data from it.

Stay chill on this one.

Aladdin Sane

Anybody else think some gullible bellends in upper management have heard about Roko's Basilisk and are desperately trying to stay on its good side?

Re: Roko's Basilisk

Claude Yeller

Roko's Basilisk looks like Pascal's wager which was about a God that exists now , and is as small minded as the writers of the Old Testament. Statistical reasons tells you that, for any small probability this god exists, you should follow their narrow minded rules for an infinite reward. But if there is a god, there are innumerably many to chose from, each with their own mutually incompatible cardinal sins.

But Roko's Basilisk is more like longtermism, as we don't know whether and when a General AI will take over the Universe. Longtermism tells us to invest infinite sums now to improve the lives of infinite many future humans over using this money to improve the lives of people living now.

This disregards the fact that rewards in the future should be discounted heavily for time. If I invest $1 now, I expect it to be worth somewhere between $20k and $10^21 (yes, 21 zeros, 1%-5% ROI) in 1000 years.

I should discount my investments by the "benefit" I want to achieve. If it is the 5% interest rate, and if I want to save 10^21 humans in 3025, I can do with so by investing the equivalent money needed to save a single human life today. So I should stick to the $1 and spend the rest on my fellow humans alive now.

Longtermism is the curse of the financial illiterate/innumerate, and the psychopaths.

Roko's Basilisk is likewise. If I want to placate a future General AI taking over the universe, I should discount what precautions I take for the time I think it will take for the AGI to emanate. Or I can decide to step out of this life when it arrives. Just like many people say they will rather climb their roofs when the A Bombs start to drop than wait for the aftermath.

Re: Roko's Basilisk

Aladdin Sane

Alternatively, invest 1p now and enjoy a slap up meal at Milliways whilst watching the Gnab Gib.

Re: Milliways

Claude Yeller

Getting there is the problem.

Highly refreshing

Mike 137

Nice article Rupert. It's delightful to read objective analysis in this bullshit-driven arena.

Microsoft's desperation

Claude Yeller

An AI generated summary of Google told me earlier that MS invested $88B on AI in 2024 (and fired 15000 to pay for it) and plans to spend another $80B in 2025.

It reasonable to assume MS are far into $100+B investments in AI by now, with no way out for the remaining ~$50B and more might already be committed to. Now, as 2025 draws to an end, this does seem less of an Intelligent decision.

Aggressive marketing of products with unspecified benefits, products, and even prices using fake statistics does indeed reek of desperation, if not panic.

Others have already explained why MS will not go under when the bubble bursts, but that will not bring much solace for the top tier of CxO's. They will be dumped in a heartbeat, or worse, lose their bonuses.

Re: Microsoft's desperation

blu3b3rry

Those poor, poor CxO's....think of all the effort they'll have to go to being parachuted into yet another company at the same position.

Re: Microsoft's desperation

martinusher

Do the math....

$88 billion spread among 15,000 people represents about $5.8 million a head. Even if the money was 'static' -- that is, not earning a return, that would provide about 40 years of wages at $150K a year.

Something, somewhere, just doesn't add up.

Re: 15,000

Claude Yeller

Just a big number to placate the stock markets.

The mantra is:

Fire people, increase stock prices.

And it diverts attention from the ridiculous investment.

Hybrid

Anonymous Coward

The auto industry can't provide even vaguely accurate figures for the fuel efficiency of hybrids when used in the real world. MS figures are meaningless for the same reason:- money.

Re: Hybrid

MiguelC

can't ≠ won't

Snooping

Scene it all

The way MS keeps pushing Copilot at me on Github, I suspect that they are analyzing what I do to help train Copilot even if I do not turn it on.

Go Compare

FirstTangoInParis

This assumes job roles called the same or similar names do the same things in different companies. Everyone knows that isn’t the case. Your average job role does describe in any detail the skills of the person actually doing that job. So that’s a big mistaken assumption.

If there is a leader board, that’s a big list of companies not to work with or for, because you know the BS meter is off the scale.

MS shooting themselves in all appendages as ever.

"randomized mathematical models"

Pascal Monett

Like I trust Redmond's notion of mathematics . . .

Re: "randomized mathematical models"

Snake

"It also reveals Microsoft breaking one of the primary rules of multi-tenant software – that each tenant is invisible to and secure from all the others. But hey, randomized mathematical models."

Oh, *please*, SOMEONE, hit those guardrails with the equivalent of a full oil tanker to get Copilot to spit out so-called 'randomized' competitive data?? It'll just be sweet, sweet, sweet justice.

New Math.....

JWLong

1+1=0.0

"This post requires some letters", haven't seen that before.

Cruachan

Billions in R&D and marketing across the industry, and what do we actually get from it? A summary of the top search results at the top of every Bing search and a button to launch Copilot on new computers.

Desperation

original_rwg

When it was announced a couple of weeks back that workers could bring their domestic Co-Pilot licence to work and use it there, I commented that I could smell desperation on the part of Micros~1. Now they're doubling down to continue to persuade that AI is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

As I recently remarked to a colleague, If I am asked a question to which I knowingly give an incorrect or inaccurate answer, how can that colleague be expected to trust anything I say? Where then does some unseen chatbot that provides equally unreliable answers have a place in any organisation?

The quantum theory of management

Anonymous Coward

Doesn't quantum theory only apply to the very small—the subatomic ?

Oh, I suppose the manglement brain is point like and mostly spin a bit like the much more useful electron.

Certainly the manglement mind is easily entangled with the latest bêtises de jour but decoheres just as fast with any interaction with the environment.

Clearly a quantum computer could never be constructed from manglement neurons.

Re: The quantum theory of management

Anonymous Coward

Subatomic? The size of the typical average IQ of a member of C suite management, perhaps?

Citizen! ... Strive harder for the revolution!

Anonymous Coward

Qu'un sang impur / Abreuve nos sillons !

You WILL use CoPilot

Anonymous Coward

From a friend at Microsoft - it's now becoming part of their performance evaluation. Pretty much says it all when you have to force your own employees to use it.

Its late stage corporate decay

martinusher

Terry Pratchett touched on this in his novel "Going Postal" -- how a corporate raid on a technology company strangles both the company and the users that rely on it.

The giveaway in this article is the quote that uses the term 'tenant'. The corporation's development efforts are focused on user lock-in and yield per use -- 'tenant' -- of their product suite. Technical development has been sidelined to the needs of product marketing and product defense (using legal stratagems, public 'attitude management' and, worse case, acquisitions and purchased legal mandates to block competition).

They're not the only corporation that does this, of course. The Marxists among us would recognize this as 'rentier capitalism', the notion that late stage capitalism isn't about controlling the means of production as charging rent (with modern people noticing that 'technology' is increasingly about charging rent for the tools essential for any enterprise to produce anything).

Re: Its late stage corporate decay

Scene it all

About 30 years ago when I was working for Oracle, the corporate President at the time came to our far-flung office to talk about strategy. He was quite open and up front about it: it was entice people in with features and then lock them in so they couldn't leave. I guess followed by holding them upside down and shaking all the coins out of their pockets.

Your goose is cooked.
(Your current chick is burned up too!)