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Oracle saddles up with $18B debt amid AI infrastructure gamble

(2025/09/25)


Oracle has raised $18 billion in debt, which could help fund massive datacenter investments aimed at meeting surging demand from AI model builders and enterprise customers.

AI hype train may jump the tracks over $2T infrastructure bill, warns Bain [1]READ MORE

According to Securities and Exchange Commission [2]filings yesterday [PDF], Big Red sold the bonds to raise cash for a number of activities including capital expenditures.

The move follows Oracle's first quarter results from earlier in the month, when it stunned the stock market by announcing [3]it had bagged cloud contracts , signed but not yet paid for, worth $455 billion.

Later, credit rating agency Moody's noted that to provide that kind of capacity, [4]Oracle would have to rely on debt . In commentary attached to a research note, Moody's said it expects the costs to buy equipment and secure real estate and utilities "will be enormous."

"Whether these will be financed through traditional debt, leases, or highly engineered financing vehicles, the overall growth in balance sheet obligations will also be extremely large," the analyst said. "We generally treat leases and many structured vehicles as debt-like obligations and include them in debt-related metrics."

[5]

In July, Moody's changed its outlook on Oracle to negative, although the rating itself stayed the same. The new outlook reflected "the expectation of continuing elevated leverage and increasingly negative free cash flow as Oracle materially ramps up its AI infrastructure business."

[6]

[7]

Announcing Oracle's results, Safra Catz, [8]then CEO , said the erstwhile database and application vendor had lined up cloud deals with OpenAI, xAI, Meta, Nvidia, AMD, "and many others."

As if to prove the point, [9]reports suggest that OpenAI will pay Oracle $300 billion over five years to fuel the LLM poster child's ambitions by providing five gigawatts of compute capacity.

[10]

Additional deals benefiting Oracle's cloud ambitions include its arrangement to provide [11]cloud infrastructure and storage to video sharing giant TikTok in the US and its [12]involvement in the US government's ambitious Stargate AI project . Neither of these projects have revealed the specific pie-slice destined for Big Red.

Where some of Oracle's customers will get the money needed to service its now huge debt is an open question.

[13]Europe's largest city council delays fix to disastrous Oracle system once more

[14]Monty Widenius 'heartbroken' at the extent of Oracle's MySQL job cuts

[15]Oracle gets to store US users' TikTok data, says Trump

[16]Mega-and-MAGA deals position Oracle's Larry Ellison to overtake Elon

While Meta may have positive cash flow, OpenAI is still reliant on funding. Its exact position remains vague. It might have as much as $60 billion from VCs and other companies, including Microsoft.

Earlier this week, OpenAI and Nvidia [17]signed a letter of intent for the chipmaker to invest up to $100 billion in the GenAI firm, but only if it keeps buying Nvidia chips.

Others have noted a shadow falling over the GenAI funding on which Oracle will rely. Management consultants Bain said the total infrastructure bill to meet industry expectations for AI would be [18]$2 trillion in revenue by 2030 .

[19]

However, it also said that even if companies shift all of their on-premises IT budget to the cloud, and reinvest any projected savings from AI productivity gains into capital spending on new datacenters, the total amount available would be $800 billion short of what's needed.

Moody's said Oracle's AI infrastructure business has "tremendous potential" but added that the "exponential growth and the already high debt burden at Oracle could result in an extended period of high leverage and negative cash flow."

As Moody's noted, Oracle's assumptions about the financing of its datacenter build program relies "on the AI companies committing to pay for these resources and being able to pay for years to come," a so-called counterparty risk.

"Given the lack of financial information about the potential counter parties, this risk assessment is subjective at best," the research commentary said. ®

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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/24/bain_ai_costs/

[2] https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001341439/75771445-e1ef-4297-b255-2b5c92a4f3d2.pdf

[3] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/10/oracle_cloud_llm_cash/

[4] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/22/moodys_raises_questions_over_oracles/

[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offprem/paasiaas&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aNVnB6uyVJ8Vv4HUqx_GBgAAAUQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offprem/paasiaas&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aNVnB6uyVJ8Vv4HUqx_GBgAAAUQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offprem/paasiaas&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aNVnB6uyVJ8Vv4HUqx_GBgAAAUQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/22/oracle_leadership_changes/

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/11/openai_reportedly_on_the_hook/

[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offprem/paasiaas&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aNVnB6uyVJ8Vv4HUqx_GBgAAAUQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/23/oracle_gets_to_store_us/

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/24/openai_oracle_softbank_datacenters/

[13] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/24/uk_mega_council_delays_fix/

[14] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/11/oracle_slammed_for_mysql_job/

[15] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/23/oracle_gets_to_store_us/

[16] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/10/oracle_q1_results/

[17] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/22/openai_nvidia_chips/

[18] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/24/bain_ai_costs/

[19] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offprem/paasiaas&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aNVnB6uyVJ8Vv4HUqx_GBgAAAUQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[20] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/



Doctor Syntax

I wonder what interest rates they got.

Like a badger

Fitch Rating have a list that's published. There's six tranches each in the range of $2-4bn with different maturities, with the longest tranche out to 2065, with coupons of 4.45 - 6.1%.

Whilst Oracle are currently (just) investment grade meaning Fitch BBB, this issue and the uncertain AI future means the rating agency mark the company outlook as negative, so any hiccups and Oracle will be issuing any more debt at BB, which is the top end of junk bonds. Perhaps most worrying is that some mugs are willing to lend $18bn of unsecured money for AI tulips, and chances are those mugs are people like pension funds.

https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/oracle-corporation-81874137#securities-and-obligations

Section 5, sort by "most recent".

Doctor Syntax

For what they're doing I think I'd want a short-duration at an interest rate that would nevertheless repay the loan a few times over before it matured. That way I might stand a chance of getting my money back before the bubble bursts and the whole thing collapses in a heap.

Like a badger

Oracle have enough recurring income from ERP and licensing that the AI bubble bursting won't harm them as much as some others?

wolfetone

We're told to put money in to a private pension by a Government who takes a fair chunk of NI out of my wage, and told that it will see me in retirement.

Then I will get to retirement and realise the private pension is fucking worthless because some dickhead decided AI was the future.

So why bother? I'm just going to spend my pension now and enjoy it, as tomorrow may never come.

PCScreenOnly

Or gets raided as it did under Blair and Brown, and maybe raided again in November by Rachel from Accounts

Buy now, pay later

trevorde

Just hope those AI companies can pay the piper when the bill is due, otherwise the market for super yachts is toast

Scene it all

Over-expansion killed Pan Am, once the US's major international airline. They had invested in a large fleet of Boeing 747's in anticipation of a surge in traffic that did not materialize.

$18B - what is that is mega yachts ?

alain williams

Can we have a new el-reg unit - a measure of money in terms of Larry style mega yachts.

steamnut

First the invincible Intel falters. With this large gamble could Oracle go the same way? And, of course Microsoft is not as stable as you might think with enforced Win11 migration not going their way.

We do live in interesting times....

Perfect day for scrubbing the floor and other exciting things.