Tariff threat plays havoc with US PC market, economy not helping
- Reference: 1758125710
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/09/17/tariffs_us_pc_market/
- Source link:
Trump tariffs turn techies topsy-turvy as US braces for PC tax [1]READ MORE
The threat of tariffs on computers assembled in the Middle Kingdom and shipped stateside saw suppliers navigating a " [2]complex regulatory maze " earlier in the year – one that [3]promised to be lucrative if they bought at the right time . The duty on PCs was scheduled for the start of August, but like so many things Trumpian, it hasn't yet materialized.
Now the tech industry in America is managing the fallout of those destabilizing threats emanating from the White House. Shipments to distributors and resellers fell 1.4 percent year-on-year in calendar Q2 to 18.6 million units. This wasn't a reflection of the units customers are buying, just what the wholesalers agreed to purchase from vendors.
Sales to suppliers "stagnated," said Canalys, though this was felt more acutely in consumer where units declined. In commercial, the looming end of support for Windows 10 on October 14 meant enterprise customers continue to replace PC estates – as such unit sales into the channel jumped 4 percent, albeit lower than in previous big OS changeovers where sales typically jumped double digits as the deadline approached.
Microsoft and the computer brands are upping efforts to amplify the noise around the operating system's end of life and trying to steer customers to upgrade to so-called AI PCs. Dell COO Jeff Clarke said last month that PC growth was " [4]moderate ."
[5]
Greg Davis, analyst at Canalys, said businesses had bought into AI marketing stateside, with "business adoption" more than doubling over the last two years and a 50 percent hike in 2025.
[6]Californian man so furious about forced Windows 11 upgrade that he's suing Microsoft
[7]Lenovo thought it could surf geopolitics, until Trump's sudden tariff changes
[8]Microsoft moved the goalposts once. Will Windows 12 bring another shift?
[9]Now Trump's import tariffs could raise the cost of a laptop for Americans by 68%
"However, this summer, we have seen that the growth rate has slowed slightly for large businesses as concerns of getting stuck in pilot purgatory grew. As businesses begin to encounter problems with integrating AI into workflows, AI-capable PC vendors must demonstrate the value-add their devices could bring."
The Reg has previously covered why AI PCs aren't matching expectations of the manufacturers. The prices are too high and the lack of killer applications is a turn-off, especially in a slowing economy where business buyers are acting more prudently.
Please tell us Reg: Why are AI PC sales slower than expected? [10]READ MORE
In terms of the retail landscape, "economic changes are likely to impact consumer spending throughout the rest of the year," said Davis. "Between persistent inflation and weak job reports in recent months, more consumers are exhibiting cautious spending, and premium electronics are not being prioritized as much as essentials like food and energy expenses."
"Despite the approaching Windows 10 end-of-support and increasing awareness, consumers in the US are more willing to wait until their PCs need to be replaced due to greatly diminished performance or hardware failures."
[11]
With the mixed outlook, US PC sales into the channel are forecast to grow 3 percent in 2025 to 71 million, if Canalys is correct, up 8.3 percent in commercial, up 9.9 percent in government, up 0.3 percent in education and down 3.9 percent in consumer. ®
Get our [12]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/10/tariffs_deadline_us_pc_effects/
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/10/tariffs_deadline_us_pc_effects/
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/01/pc_united_states_shipping_figs/
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/09/gartner_ai_phone/
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aMsveCtLxeS3ht8DZImcpwAAAtM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2025/08/11/microsoft_sued_over_premature_windows/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/23/lenovo_fy2025/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/07/microsoft_hardware_gates/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/07/trumps_tariff_electronics_prices/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/04/ai_pc_sales_analysis/
[11] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aMsveCtLxeS3ht8DZImcpwAAAtM&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[12] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
What Andy giveth, Bill taketh
Ah, those old times, when new computers were faster and Windows had improvements.
Andy is death, Intel on the brink of bankruptcy. Bill is playing sycophant when he isn't helping cure poor people with his loot from MS. Windows upgrades are feared as futile exercises in firewalling with little to no benefits.
And now the world should buy AI PCs. As if any normal user has any desire to run their own LLM models. Anyone who wants to use AI can do so easily online using the full size models, without bothering to select, install, and update small AI models. Especially when an extra expensive laptop is needed.
As El Reg already wrote about another laptop:
Nice hardware, Shame about the OS.
Lip-Bu giveth, Satya taketh, John Doe doesn't buyeth.
Re: What Andy giveth, Bill taketh
"Andy is death"
Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.
AI PC makers need to start including their own models on top of Copilot.
OpenWeight&Free (as in beer) AI models abound. Bundle some of them with your AI PC out of the box, and a little software to switch between them to let the users "test the waters" (so to speak) for the best model for the customer's particular use case, and you are golden.
Also, whisper to the ears of your customers (with plausible deniability, of course), that an AI PC is your best bet to get a computer compatible with Win12 (as most likely, by then the NPU will be mandatory), and you will be made of gold.
Most customers in both corporate and consumer do not need AI PCs right now, while some others are downright hostile to AI PCs. Better concentrate on making the experience of people who do want them as seamless, warm and fussy as possible, so that those satisfied customers become your evangelists.
Re: AI PC makers need to start including their own models on top of Copilot.
Because what I'm looking for if I buy a pre-built is more, more, more bundled crapware!
Lots to unpack
So, the majority of PCs bought are of the "big name" suppliers. 99% of which are "controlled" (read into that what you will) by Intel. Intel sucks.
So, first, why aren't people buying PCs? They are Intel based. They suck. Intel isn't doing anything to "fix" their reputation (really).
That is, who cares about tariffs? Not saying there aren't factors there, but the big reason isn't that.
Microsoft's "forced PC purchase" plan came at a very bad time. Forcing people to buy "that which sucks" when the value isn't there and in many cases, it's a step backwards.... this didn't help at all.
When change is forced, people are forced to make a decision. And often times, that decision is to "wait", because all roads lead to "suck" currently (or to, risk, for those eyeing the non-big player AMD options out there). Again, this without regard to tariff impacts.
Tariffs are an "easy blame".... but it's not really the root cause. Not even close.
Many only own PCs for gaming (some would say it's the only reason today to own one). GPU manufacturers, also based on "what they can get away with" have greatly inflated their pricing based on many factors, but this was even happening prior to the "AI" revolution, but the latter has only made it worse. If the GPU component value isn't there (and it isn't anymore), that too pushes people into the "just wait" queue. Again, tariffs are an "easy blame", but the GPU chip makers are fully to blame on this one. Has zero to do with tariffs.
Is "the greed" factor working out? Nvidia would say yes. AMD would say yes (but they don't mean it, it's bad folks, really bad).
Companies are taking the "hard line" against their customer base. At some point, maybe, a change will happen. Right now, Nvidia is flying high. AMD is "high" (that is, too euphoric to notice what's actually happening to them). Intel is being artificially bolstered by the USA (the "safe USA company of the future"), but is losing tech minds like crazy. It's a mess. And none of this has anything to do with tariffs.
> The threat of tariffs on computers assembled in the Middle Kingdom and shipped stateside
Since China is now the economic centre, and appropriately named the Middle Kingdom, we should now more properly refer to the Americas as "The East", and Africa and Europe as "The West".
I realise this will be a little confusing to people who have come to think of the people of the east as industrious, studious, and productive, but you should soon make the mental shift.
Who knew?
Supply chains are fragile and rely on stability to function reliably. I'm shocked to my core that capricious mood swings regarding tariffs could unbalance such an ecosystem.