Smartphones in the doldrums due to crap demand and tariff woes
- Reference: 1752600454
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/07/15/smartphones_in_doldrums/
- Source link:
According to data collated by analyst biz Canalys, shipments were down by 1 percent, marking the industry's first decline in six quarters. It blamed this on weak consumer demand, saying that 2025 is shaping up to be a flat year overall as far as growth is concerned.
Meanwhile, another market research firm IDC reported a marginal increase in shipments of 1 percent during the same period, reaching 295.2 million units. It also blamed the lukewarm increase on macro-economic challenges such as foreign exchange instability, unemployment and inflation in some regions – plus tariffs.
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"In the face of ongoing political challenges, the impact of war, and the complexities posed by tariffs, the 1 percent growth in the smartphone market stands as a critical indicator that it is poised to return to growth," commented Anthony Scarsella, research director for client devices at IDC.
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Previously, IDC had [4]lowered its forecast for smartphone shipments in 2025 amid tariff and trade uncertainty, estimating that worldwide shipments are likely to be limited to 1.24 billion units, equating to an increase of 0.6 percent over last year.
The effect of tariffs is also noted by Canalys, which said that many vendors had hoped to see a rise in demand for the second quarter, but were instead forced to cut production targets in order to avoid a build-up of excess inventory.
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America was the exception here, where the constantly shifting tariff policies and timelines from the Trump administration led vendors such as Apple, Samsung, and Motorola (owned by Lenovo) to maintain high inventory levels and frontload devices (import to stockpile) throughout the quarter, the analyst says.
"After a slow start to 2025, vendors are now well placed and ready to navigate what is expected to be a flat year for the smartphone market," said Canalys' practice lead for smartphone research Amber Liu. "Many consumers who delayed purchases in the first half of 2025 are anticipated to buy during the major shopping festivals and events toward the end of the year."
[6]European consumers are mostly saying 'non' to trading in their old phones
[7]Blocking stolen phones from the cloud can be done, should be done, won't be done
[8]Tariff woes equal US smartphone price hikes, shrinking sales
[9]Resellers may be sitting on costly pile of regret after US smartphone shopping spree
Demand is likely to be driven by price-conscious buyers looking for a good deal to replace their old devices, the analyst house predicts.
Both market analysts place Samsung as the top vendor during Q2 with a roughly 19 percent market share, followed by Apple on about 16 percent and Xiaomi in third place with 15 percent. ®
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[4] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/30/tariff_troubles_to_cause_cut/
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[6] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/18/used_phones_europe/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/09/opinion_column_blocking/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/30/tariff_troubles_to_cause_cut/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/14/smartphone_q1_2025/
[10] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Meh
After taking a dunk into a chemical toilet, I just had to replace my smartphone.
With another, exact same older model, refurbished one. I'm not spending the kind of money they ask for nice phones to only have it last 4-5 years max due to planned software obsolescence, sorry not sorry.
Pay
They should be paying us for carrying their spying / data harvesting devices.
It can't grow forever
Pretty much everyone who is going to get a cell phone has one. It is all replacement cycle now - and the phones that are replaced often have a second and even third or fourth life so it depends on how long they can be used.
The last great obsolescence cycle is getting rid of the 2G/3G only devices as those networks are switched off, and that's just about over. The smartphone industry has to accept that it is no longer a growth market, but a mature one.
Re: It can't grow forever
"The smartphone industry has to accept that it is no longer a growth market, but a mature one."
UK smartphone sales (which will largely mirror other developed economies) have seen unit sales drop steadily since 2013, industry have known for many years that volume growth comes from emerging markets but will eventually plateau. A quick web search turned up articles reporting "sluggish growth in UK smartphone market"....dated 2010, so I'm not sure the Reg or Canalys can claim that they're offering a scoop, hot off the presses.
Wasn't there a sales spike in the USA at the beginning of the year, when it looked like tariffs were about to push up retail prices?
Politics is constraining choice as well
I've got an Huawei/Honor phone, its one of the last models sold in the US before we banned them. I've no plans to replace it. It works for my needs and thanks to intrusive government policies and provider monopolies my choices for a replacement are now constrained to what feels like second tier makes sold at premium prices. Its the same with other things I might like to purchase; the tariff wall just means that my wallet is now staying firmly shut, only to be pried open "in case of emergency". (...and "local makes" -- its all about the subscriptions now, isn't it? The days of straightforward "I give you money, you give me stuff" transactions are well behind us.)
I'm still in the market
For an AI-less phone.
Nothing to do with the fact there are no real good new features that are grabbing people and making them think oooh.
If anything they are removing features - microsd card or earphones socket (yes, there are usbc to audio)
Meh
Down one percent? Cry me a river.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: there is not one single cell phone worth more than $200 retail.